How? Because the NFC East is total garbage. Let’s look at the different scenarios and computations.

 

FiveThirtyEight

nfc east 538

Let’s start with FiveThirtyEight, where the Eagles are 43% favorites to win the division, and the only NFC East team projected to win this week. Their defeat of the Patriots gave them the biggest jump in the Elo rating (and gave the Pats the biggest drop), which certainly helps them here. [The Pats still have a greater than 99% chance to win their division, and a 19% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Panthers are currently at 21%, and the Eagles are at “<1%”.]

 

NY Times

eagles playoff ny times

What the NY Times does here is actually very interesting. The Times runs continuous simulations each time you visit the site to determine playoff odds. On a different trips, I saw the Eagles’ odds range from 33% to 39%. You can also manually predict their remaining games and see what it does to their playoff chances

The one constant is how much their odds take a hit when losing either of their last two NFC East matchups. That much is obvious. But if you leave all other outcomes up in the air – Bills and Cardinals games to random chance – and choose the Eagles to win either of their last two games, their odds jump up into the mid to high 60% range. Even with my projected outcome (beat Bills, lose to Arizona, beat Washington, lose to the Giants) the Eagles are relatively safe with just over a 50% chance to make the post-season. 2-2 in their last four games – for a 7-9 record – gives the Eagles a better than 50% chance to make the playoffs. Gross. It’s really just those last two games that matter. There’s a lot you can do over there. Play around.

 

SportsLine

sportsline

And finally, here’s one that doesn’t favor the Eagles. SportsLine, who says they “harnesses the power of data with the expertise of sports expert insiders to produce the ultimate sports picks and analysis,” has the Eagles as a slight underdog to the Giants for the division title, separated by less than 2%. Why? You could argue the Eagles and Giants both have a likely 2-2 road to end the season. The Eagles beat the Giants earlier this season, so another win against them, even if their records end in a tie, would give the Eagles the tiebreaker. If they end up tied and split the head-to-head (aka the Giants win in Week 17), then things get interesting.

 

Tiebreakers

The Giants are currently 2-3 in the NFC East and would have to beat the Eagles, making their division record 3-3, to trigger a tiebreaker they can win. The Eagles are 2-2 in the NFC East, but to have a shot (with losing to the Giants) they’d have to beat the Redskins to trigger the third-level tiebreaker: best won-lost-tied record in common games. Here’s how NJ.com explains how that one would work:

• Eagles beat the Patriots while Cowboys, Redskins and Giants lost to New England
• Giants beat the Bills while Eagles, Redskins and Cowboys still have to play the Bills
• Cowboys beat the Dolphins while Eagles and Redskins lost to the Dolphins [Giants play them next week]
• Panthers have beaten the Eagles, Redskins and Cowboys still have to play Giants
• Eagles beat the Jets while Giants and Redskins lost to the Jets
• Falcons beat all four NFC East teams
• Giants and Redskins beat the Bucs, Eagles and Cowboys lost to the Bucs
• Eagles and Redskins beat the Saints, Giants and Cowboys lost to the Saints

There are many different outcomes that can arise out of that. Assuming the Eagles beat the Bills, the Giants beat the Dolphins, and the Panthers beat the Giants, the Eagles will be 4-4 in those mutual games, while the Giants will sit at 3-5. Eagles in. Now, if the Eagles lose to the Bills and the rest stays the same, it’s a 3-5 tie. Which goes to tiebreaker level four: conference record. If things shake out as I have them (Giants lose to CAR, beat MIN, and beat PHI to force tiebreaker, Eagles lose to ARI, beat WAS, and lose to NYG), that leaves the Giants with a 6-6 conference record and the Eagles with a 4-8 conference record. Giants in. That explains the 2% difference. I’m exhausted.

This is all still conjecture, of course. There are only four games left, but countless scenarios. One thing is beginning to seem more and more certain, however: This could be Chip Kelly’s third straight season of living or dying in Week 17.