Flyers Season Preview: The Beginning of Something Special
[soundcloud url=”https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/287669679″ params=”color=ff5500&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_comments=true&show_user=true&show_reposts=false” width=”100%” height=”166″ iframe=”true” /]
First off: This is the debut of the #1 Hockey Podcast, which will be one of Liberty Podcasts’ Flyers podcast. It features @dr_pizza_mid (Joe), @JasonAAV (Jason), and myself. We hope to bring you good, clean, irreverent fun throughout the season. Go ahead and tell us how much we suck in the comments.
———————————————————————–
It’s been a long time coming for the Flyers, really five years in the making. Ever since the trades of Mike Richards and Jeff Carter, we’ve been waiting for the next wave of competitiveness longevity. There have been flashes and moments of excitement, but at no point could we honestly look years into the future and be confident that there was a concrete, long-term plan in place to ensure the franchise could join the NHL’s upper tier. At the end of the Paul Holmgren era in 2014, the franchise was saddled with horrific veteran contracts, a system lacking a crop of top-end talent, and an asset cupboard devoid of draft picks. It’s year three of Ron Hextall’s reign as GM and, remarkably, he has just about fixed this thing completely. There are only two bad contracts on the books beyond this season (Andrew MacDonald and Matt Read), the system is overflowing with talent of all degrees, and the team is back to stockpiling draft picks instead of trading them away for faux quick fixes. We figured it would take at least three years to undo Holmgren’s damage, but to actually have it come to fruition — and on an accelerated timeline — is invigorating. Not only can we see the light at the end of the tunnel for sustained success, we’re ready to embrace it, to start living it. Last year the Flyers overachieved, and this season I feel the organization is ready to make THE LEAP. I truly believe 2016-17 is the beginning of something special for the franchise. We’re going to win a Stanley Cup (or two??) within the next five years.
Note for noobs: Corsi is a percentage of shots directed at an opponents’ net and is important because it’s an indication of how much your team has the puck and controls the flow of play.
THE STALWARTS
Claude Giroux, Jake Voracek, Wayne Simmonds
We’ve seen all three players progress from talented “core” guys to bona fide faces of the franchise. It was obvious with Giroux the moment he became a regular in the second half of 2008-09, but it still took a few seasons to settle in; the hope was it would be the same for Voracek and Simmonds when they arrived in the Carter/Richards trades in 2011, and both started to really come into their own in 2012-13 and 2013-14. As the older veterans were pushed out, the trio was elevated. Now they’re all in their late 20’s and serving as the veterans to mentor the next wave of players who will eventually take their jobs. But that’s the lifecycle of a pro athlete.
The downside is that with Giroux turning 29 in January and coming off his lowest full-season point total (67) since 2010-11 (76). He’s still an easy driver of possession (53.4% Corsi; career average is 53%), but it felt like last season was the start of the back-nine career slope where he falls off from being consistently dynamic and has to embrace a transformation in the second phase of his career. That’s ok, though, I don’t think any of us expected Giroux to remain an elite, top-tier player into his 30s because of the realities of his game and body type. Over the coming years, Giroux will move into the role of a really effective 2C and continue to be the emotional leader and heartbeat of the team until he retires. The habitual detractors will decry that he’s on the decline, but that’s relative to what you expect. I see Giroux’s 2015-16 as the new normal going forward; he’s a player who’s going to maintain plus possession stats with annual point totals in the 60-65 range and be a power play engine. Eventually he’ll move to the second power play unit when Travis Konecny is ready to take his spot, but we’re still a few years away from that.
Jake Voracek is the perfect candidate for a bounce-back season, and I expect him to return to that dominant 2013-14 form in the first year of his new contract and shut up all the idiots who think he’s overpaid. He looked excellent in the preseason, and his shooting percentage should progress to the mean (9.5%) or higher after last season’s bout with terrible luck (5.2%). Voracek’s possession stats will remain strong as part of the second line with Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny, giving the Flyers a very balanced and dangerous top-six forward group. I say he sets a career high in goals with 25-30 to go along with the usual 45-50 assists.
Wayne Simmonds will remain his steady, unique self, potting upwards of 30 goals (a majority of which coming within five feet of the crease) and contributing 25-30 assists while being a major power play weapon and providing the sandpaper edge we all love and adore.
THE NEXT WAVE
Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn, Shayne Gostisbehere, Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny
Couturier and Schenn are both entering their sixth (6th!!!) season with the Flyers. God, I feel old. Each season we thought would be the one where they’d step up their games, but we were constantly left holding that bag of unrealized potential. Couturier mastered the defensive side of the game early on; his main role developed into playing the toughest minutes of anyone on the roster (and in the league) and stifling the other team’s top lines. Keep in mind that Couturier turns just 24 in December, and it takes players his size longer to hit their primes. The final evolution of his game concerned when his offense would catch up to the Selke-level defense and he’d become a 50-plus point player. That light appeared to finally click on in December of last season. Despite an injury interruption in January-February, Couturier finished with 34 points (9 goals, 25 assists) in his final 45 games, and the .62 points/game total (39 points in 63 games) translates to 51 points over 82 games. Provided he stays healthy, I think Couturier eclipses the 15-goal, 30-assist mark and finally hits 50 points for the first time in his career.
Schenn is serving a garbage three-game suspension to start the season, but the light came on for him too in 2016. From January 1 when he was placed on the first line with Giroux and Simmonds, Schenn scored 44 points (19 goals, 25 assists) in 46 games and was a force night in, night out. He finished the season with 26 goals and 33 assists in 80 games and after signing a contract extension over the summer commensurate with a 60-point player, it’s now about establishing consistency. Schenn will have to carry over last season’s performance as his regular level of play. He’ll have every chance to do so when he comes back from suspension and resumes his first-line winger spot with Giroux and Simmonds.
Shayne Gostisbehere was a revelation from the second he was called up and saved a sputtering Flyers team in 2015-16. He recorded 46 points (17 goals, 29 assists) in 64 games and gave the Flyers a legit power play quarterback with a bomb of a shot from the point. He’ll have to avoid a dreaded sophomore slump but was his usual self in the World Cup and preseason. Unfortunately, it looks like he’s going to be tethered to Andrew MacDonald, anchor and ruiner-of-all-things, just as he was to end last season. Gostisbehere finished the season with an even strength Corsi of just 50%, but you can see from the chart below that he was dragged down by MacDonald and the team performed much better with that pairing off the ice in the final 20 games of the season. Gostisbehere playing most of his even-strength minutes without MacDonald: 0.89 points/game (November-February). Gostisbehere playing most of his even-strength minutes with MacDonald (March-April): 0.55 points/per game. Of course, there could’ve been other factors at play, such as a fatigue and a regressing shooting percentage, but Andrew MacDonald sucks and his suckage infects everyone he plays with. #FreeGhost
Provorov and Konecny are the new savior twins, just as Richards and Carter were the last time the Flyers made two picks in the first round (2003). Provorov was a virtual lock to make the team and will develop into a bona fide first pairing stud who logs 25-plus minutes per night and plays in every situation. He was as advertised in the preseason and will be a top-four defenseman this season who’ll be steady as a rock, control play in all three zones when he’s on the ice, and tantalize with flashes of Drew Doughty-type rushes/displays of skill. I see 5-10 goals and 20-plus assists.
While everyone expected Konecny to play well in preseason and show glimpses of “wow” ability, we also figured he’d get sent back to juniors unless he made it absolutely necessary for the Flyers to include him in their top six (even then, Hextall could’ve gone super conservative). Well, TK did just that. He was the best forward on the ice in each preseason game and made it obvious he was ready for the NHL and could be a valuable contributor to the team this season. If the Flyers were serious about fielding the best roster possible, Konecny had to be on it. He’s the only near-ready player in the system with high-level skill who brings that dynamic element and can turn the top two lines into interchangeable vehicles of domination. Konecny with Couturier and Voracek is a wet dream turned reality; he’s also going to fill the Giroux role along the half wall on the second power play unit and make it into a viable weapon instead of an insufferable time waster. Let’s go with 10-15 goals and 25-30 assists.
THE SUPPORT
Forwards: Michael Raffl, Nick Cousins, Dale Weise, Matt Read, Pierre Edouard-Bellemare, Scott Laughton, Boyd Gordon, Chris VandeVelde, Roman Lyubimov
The bottom six in a jumble, but this collection of players should provide a nice complement to the top six and boast multiple players who register over 30 points. The main responsibility of this group is to keep pucks out of their own net, chip in some offense (there’s the talent to do it) and generally provide worthwhile minutes so that Hakstol can confidently roll four lines. Raffl is what he is, a Swiss Army knife player who is an asset to whatever line needs him but is best suited for the third-fourth line. Read’s production fell off drastically last season and he’s the odd man out. He’s still the biggest goal-scoring threat in this group, but he’ll be on a different team either by the trade deadline or next offseason. Bellemare was one of the best players on Team Europe in the World Cup and had a noticeable jump in his step in the preseason. He was confident and assertive with the puck and making things happen. I’ve always been a fan of Pebbles’ game and feel he has the talent to play with more skilled players, but his role on this team is well entrenched. This is the make-or-break season for Scott Laughton, who should probably be sent down to play top-six minutes in the AHL when he’s healthy and then recalled in the inevitable case of injury. Gordon was signed for face-offs and to ease Giroux’s penalty kill burden. Lyubimov offers more than VandeVelde and should be the last forward, but we all know Hakstol is partial to the latter.
For the second straight summer, the Flyers were quiet in free agency, but they decided to make Weiss their “big” acquisition. He was a waste of space in his first four seasons but became an effective player over the last two (50-plus% Corsi and 27 and 29 points). Still, a four-year deal was overkill for a bottom-six forward glorified for intangibles (much like signing Max Talbot to a five-year deal in 2011), but at least Weise is under 30 and we’ll all be able to easily tolerate the contract if ’14-15/’15-16 is his new standard of play.
Defense: Michael Del Zotto, Radko Gudas, Mark Streit
Del Zotto suffered a long-term “lower body” injury in the penultimate preseason game, of course, and will be out at least the first month of the season. He can’t be relied upon to be a consistently healthy, which is a shame because he’s been a tremendous player for the Flyers since being picked up off the scrap heap and has resurrected his once-promising career. Del Zotto has always been a slick puck mover who can jump up and contribute offensively, but it’s the rounding out and stabilization of his defense that’s allowed him to elevate his total game. He and Gudas were an incredible pairing last season and will presumably be put together as the first pairing when Del Zotto returns from injury. However, it’s almost a lock that Del Zotto gets injured again at some point. We just have to hope it’s not so severe as to be season-ending.
Gudas is an intimidator, defensive defenseman and effective possession driver whose offensive contribution is to fire a billion pucks towards the net regardless of the other options available to him on the ice. The issue is that he’s a marked man by the refs and Department of Player Safety and can’t be trusted to not get suspended. He has no room for error but his game is his game and since he’s not going to stop laying thunderous checks, he is also a lock to miss time.
Streit turns 39 in December and is on his last legs. He’d already showed signs of slowing down and then ripped the bone clean off his groin last November and literally couldn’t skate when he came back. This is the final season of his contract and, likely, career. It’s going to be tough to watch at times, but Streit’s still a respected veteran and leader in the locker room who should be a serviceable 4/5 defenseman and beneficial partner for Provorov.
FUCK OFF
Andrew MacDonald, Nick Schultz
No extra commentary necessary here. Two guys who are 6/7 defenseman at best but coaches always love and thrust into roles that far exceed their capabilities for reasons that defy explanation. With injuries and suspensions plaguing the defensive corps, MacDonald and Schultz will be forced into playing minutes early in the season that will be detrimental to the team.
Schultz’s contract is up at the end of this season, but MacDonald’s runs through 2020. I’ll buy season tickets to the Las Vegas Desert/Golden/Silver/Whatever Knights (great name, shitheads) if they take MacDonald in the expansion draft. HE CAN LOG LOTS OF MINUTES AND BLOCKS SHOTS!!!!!
THE GOALIES
Finally, the “problem” the Flyers have in net will be a good one. Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth both looked sharp in the preseason (and Neuvy in the World Cup) and ready to pick up where they left off last season. Barring injury or trade, the Flyers should get 82 games of #1 goalie caliber play. The Tampa Bay Lightning is the only other team with a chance to do that.
The real dilemma will come in the offseason when both contracts are up and the Flyers have to decide which goalie they want to the their #1 for the foreseeable future (or if they’re ready to roll with Stolarz??). But we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.
SEASON PREDICTION
The Flyers are a year ahead of schedule again and are on the cusp of rejoining the NHL’s upper echelon. We’re entering the window where this team will be an annual Stanley Cup competitor. They’re going to need to turn some of those shootout losses into shootout wins (lol) in order to get over 100 points in 2016-17, but hey, I’m in a good mood.
47-27-8, 102 points, 3rd in the Metropolitan Division, second-round playoff loss.