Note 1: All advanced stats are based on games played through February 27 because the article was written prior to last night’s win over the Avalanche.

Note 2: As of publishing, the Flyers are about to re-sign Michal Neuvirth, who was very strong as a backup in 2015-16 but has sucked from the jump this season (injuries aside) and ranks dead-last in the NHL in save percentage. I guess going into the offseason without a veteran goalie on the roster wasn’t an option. This would seemingly make Neuvy the de facto starter for 2017-18, which will solve absolutely nothing. So long and fair well, Steve Mason.

The Flyers’ 10-game win streak from the end of November through the middle of December was a joyous time and nice little three-week run of good fortune for a team that hadn’t had much of any in the first seven weeks of the season. Still, those 10 wins were more indicative of what a hot goalie and puck luck’s fickle nature can do, rather than the sign of a team hitting its stride. Precisely none of the wins had a margin of victory over two goals, and only a few could even be considered impressive. I felt like a bit of a slide would follow once the win streak ended, though I can’t say I expected it to morph into a nosedive that has lasted nine weeks (during which time they’re 10-16-4) and rendered the season effectively over by the end of February. Hell, the Flyers would have the worst record in the East had they gone even 6-3-1 during the win streak. But now I’m just being a dick.

I thought the Flyers, who certainly overachieved in 2015-16, would be able to build on last season and take another step forward. On paper, I saw this as an improved roster (added a top-four defenseman and top-six forward) with two goalies in a contract year; it was fair to expect at least one of them to step up and shine. I convinced myself to believe this squad was capable of topping 100 points and battling for the third seed in the Metropolitan Division. Turns out I was a dumb, stupid boy (plus the Metro is having the best season for any division in recent memory). Dave Hakstol responded well to the gauntlet of his first pro season, silencing the skeptics by bursting onto the scene and showing his system and philosophies could hang in the modern NHL game. Unfortunately I see now that I severely underestimated his ability to understand and competently manage personnel. He’s so out of his depth on the issue of personnel, and recently it’s been especially excruciating to watch (which I’ve barely had interest in doing). In last night’s win over the pathetic Avalanche, Steve Mason carried the team in the final two periods for his second shutout in four games… in four weeks. If it was indeed Mason’s final game as a Flyer, it was a fitting “up yours” to the boss who did him so dirty this past month when he could’ve helped the team stay in the playoff picture. The Flyers started February on a high note, soundly beating the Canadiens 3-1 to round out a 5-4 stretch that momentarily halted the post-winning-streak 2-6-1 skid. Michal Neuvirth had a stellar first three of games of February, so Hakstol decided to ride him the whole month. Naturally, Neuvy went ice cold upon starting both legs of the back-to-back (henceforth known as just one of many Hakstol Specials that spits in the face of hard data) to kick off the Western Canada road trip.

Before we get into the meat of this, a quick explainer on two metrics I’m about to cite:

  1. PDO, which is even strength shooting % + even strength save % and should work out to ~100, on average.
  2. CF%, which is the total number of shots directed at the opposing net while a player is on the ice.

Hakstol has made too many below average and plain bad players part of his untouchables and it’s some inexplicably idiotic, system-trumps-talent college bullshit. God forbid he should give an opportunity to Jordan Weal or Scott Laughton rather than useless players like Chris VandeVelde and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, who have no development upside or future with the organization. Furthermore, Hakstol has arbitrarily benched good players for “learning purposes” and so brazenly mishandled his goalies like he’s Peter Laviolette losing his mind in the playoffs (how many more fucking back-to-backs do you want to play the same goalie, Dave?). I also didn’t take into account simultaneously having the worst team shooting percentage (6.16) and second-worst save percentage (90.79 aka .908) in the league at even strength, and, if the season were to end today, the lowest PDO (96.95) in a non-lockout season since 2007. The goalie play has been a train wreck throughout, but it’s remarkable to consider what’s happened to the team shooting percentage after such a blistering start to the season. Despite lacking a classic sniper/dynamic goal-scoring threat, it’s not like this team doesn’t have talent. However, overmatched coach and historically shitty luck aside, doesn’t there just seem to be something fundamentally broken with the core?

  • Claude Giroux was scoring at a 75-point pace before Christmas, but his overall decline at even strength has carried over from last season (despite getting more offensive zone starts) and he’s no longer an impact first-line center. He’s also being plagued by rotten luck, with a 95.7 PDO that’s tied with Dale Weise for worst among regular forwards on the team. The hope is that the downward trend doesn’t accelerate with age and Giroux can plateau as a ~60-point second-line center who’s average at even strength and remains lethal on the power play. While I share that hope, I also share this fear: I’m really concerned about Giroux’s game and the extent to which it could deteriorate given his body type.
  • Jake Voracek has bounced back from last season; he will finish with 60-plus points and has the chance to eclipse his career season-high goal total of 23 (despite having the second-worst PDO of forwards on the team at 95.8).
  • Wayne Simmons has regressed following strong seasons in 2014-15 and 2015-16. He’s fallen below 50% CF at even strength (currently at 49.1, which is -3.1 relative to the rest of the team) despite a 10% bump in offensive zone starts from last season.
  • Like Giroux, Voracek and Simmonds are both in their late 20s and entering the backside of their primes. That said, Voracek’s game should age better than Simmonds’.
  • Brayden Schenn, recipient of a lucrative contract extension in the offseason, has 16 points (five goals) at even strength and reverted to being the uninspiring player who has frustrated us for the majority of his time with the Flyers.
  • Sean Couturier centered a dominant second line with Voracek and Travis Konecny for the first two months of the season before suffering an injury that kept him out over a month, and while he still has strong possession stats, he hasn’t been able convert it into scoreboard production.
  • Andrew MacDonald is a really nice guy off the ice but ruins everyone he’s paired with (my life included) on it. Nevertheless, he is viewed as a core piece by Hakstol, who this season has felt he’s a top-four defenseman worthy of heavy minutes and was none too pleased when challenged on the MacDonald saga at the Flyers’ season ticket town hall meeting last month. I have nothing else to add without smashing my computer to smithereens, but, seriously, tell me I was wrong when I accused the organization in October of engaging in an astounding display of self sabotage.
  • Shayne Gostisbehere has perhaps been the victim of the worst luck of anyone (worst PDO on the team at 94.8) and is in the midst of a nightmarish sophomore slump. Teams are actively challenging him at the point on the power play to disrupt his clap bombs, and he has a shooting percentage of 3.7% (and he’s missing the net A TON) despite a healthy bump in possession stats at even strength over last season (54.6 vs 50.6 CF%). Meanwhile Gostisbehere’s coach, who can’t see the forest for the trees, is jerking him around and has engaged in neutering his most offensively-gifted defenseman’s natural game. Here’s the equation from last season to this season: 7.5-point drop in personal even strength SH% + 3.7-point drop in team even strength SH% + 4-point drop in even strength SV% (from .926 to .887) + 7.6-point drop in PDO (from 102.4 to 94.8) = infinite sad/crying emojis. In other words, Gostisbehere couldn’t get lucky in a monkey whorehouse right now if he had a banana and $100 bill hanging out of his zipper

Aside from Oskar Lindblom, a precocious winger dominating the Swedish Elite League in a way very few players his age have and who should easily slot in as a top-nine guy next season, there’s no savior type of forward in the immediate pipeline. Perhaps the hope is that German Rubtsov, who made a splash in his North American hockey debut, develops into the first line center of the future (oh, sup dude) — but even if that ends up being the case, he’s still at least a few years away from the NHL.

Furthermore, the Flyers are proving to be an easy study in the trap of using Corsi as a baseline to determine where a team should be relative to its place in the standings. First off, they’ve scored more than three (3) goals in a game THRICE in 2017 (including Avalanche game) and a putrid 42 goals in those 24 games (1.75 goals per game). Despite being fifth-best in the league with a 51.57 CF%, they’re ninth-worst in expected goals for percentage (xGF%) and sixth-worst in overall expected goals for (xGF). Seven of the eight teams worse in xGF% and all four of the teams worse in xGF have the CF% numbers to match their ineptitude. All this lines up with what we can see with our own eyes — the Flyers take a preponderance of their shots from the perimeter and don’t generate much in the way of high-danger chances around the net. Simply put, the strong Corsi number is superficial and empty. More simply: I know the adage that good things happen when you throw the puck on net, but there still needs to be a balance and the Flyers fire way too many low-percentage shots.

The converse argument is that even with merely sub-average — as opposed to horrid — luck (91.5 SV% and 7.5% SH% = 99 PDO), the Flyers probably have three more wins and are right in the thick of the hunt for the final Wild Card playoff spot. My argument is, so what? They’d still be fighting for the privilege of getting smoked by the Washington Capitals again in the first round of the playoffs. Cool, great season, truly one of tangible progress. The only consistent bright spots have been Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, whenever the coach lets him play. Everyone else, including Giroux and Voracek after hot starts, has either stagnated or regressed.

So, what does this all mean? There’s the disgusted BLOW IT THE FUCK UP crowd who advocate that the retool plan Ron Hextall has been so steadfast in following should be scrapped in favor of a full rebuild that coincides with when the next wave of the Flyers’ core will be ready to enter its prime. I’ve entertained the idea of the BITFU strategy and choosing two of Giroux, Voracek, and Simmonds to jettison (and if the Flyers were to decide to trade a major piece, Simmonds might have the most value because of his team-friendly contract). I wouldn’t even be heartbroken or crestfallen if it happened because I’m of the opinion that we’ve already seen the ceiling with this group. But I can’t deny that a major chunk of the feeling is born from frustration and exasperation from watching this heap of dog shit, rather than stats-based rationality. An outsider would look at the raw data and conclude the overarching theme of 2016-17 is that the Flyers are victims of a season from luck hell. Someone who watches every game would accept the bad luck factor but also know that’s far from the only, or even primary, issue.

It might end up being a different story in the offseason once Hextall and company have a chance to step back and evaluate the big picture, as opposed to making major decisions influenced by negative emotions and trade deadline chaos, but I don’t think you’ll find a fan who doesn’t feel some kind of substantial change is necessary. The Flyers have try to figure out how they’re one day going to make the leap from best-case-scenario fringe playoff team stuck in purgatory to contender that can legitimately compete with the conference’s best. That said, with four hours to go until the deadline and Ron Hextall currently continuing to sit with his thumb up his ass and do nothing to take advantage of this seller’s market, here are some proposed trades I’ve cobbled together:

  1. Flyers trade Brayden Schenn, Michael Raffl, and Mark Streit to Montreal for Artturi Lehkonen, Torrey Mitchell (to help balance salaries), Nikita Scherbak, Charles Hudon, 2017 first round pick, and 2017 second round pick (via Washington)
  2. Flyers trade Steve Mason to Calgary for Brian Elliott, 2017 fourth round pick, and 2018 conditional third round pick (if Mason re-signs with Calgary)
  3. Flyers trade Matt Read to Nashville for Patrick Harper and 2018 second round pick
  4. Flyers trade Michael Del Zotto to Edmonton for 2017 third round pick

Unless the Flyers are getting a huge return for any of Giroux,* Voracek, or Simmonds, trading them just for the sake of shaking things up takes a sledgehammer to Hextall’s stated (and methodically executed) plan from the moment he took over as GM and realistically doesn’t make the team better in the next two or three years. Then again, maybe the Flyers aren’t going to be able to capably rebuild on the fly and need to bottom out before being able to build the franchise back up.

*If Hextall is concerned about Giroux’s contract becoming an albatross and already having buyer’s regret to the point of wanting to get out of it, that’s a different impetus for a potential trade.

Since Dave Hakstol has shown his true colors as being unfit for the NHL but won’t be getting fired in the offseason, I’m afraid we’ll be forced to do this same song and dance all over again in 2017-18. Maybe that’s when the organization will be left with no choice but to have frank internal conversations about the heights this core is capable of achieving and if the reset button has to be pushed. In the meantime, everyone continue to enjoy this wonderful, super fun hamster wheel that makes you loathe watching the sport and team you love.