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I have spent an inordinate amount of time watching and reading about Sixers draft targets. Rather than cast a wide net, I’ve tried to drill down on the four most likely ones: Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum, De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk. I’ve concluded that each represents a compromise of sorts.

Jackson is a terrific player with a lot of upside who has shown off an improving but concerning shot.

Tatum is a really good small forward with NBA-ready skills but plays an old-school style of basketball and doesn’t appear to have a very high ceiling.

De’Aaron Fox has superstar potential but is a very poor shooter at this stage.

Malik Monk is the perfect role player the Sixers need but doesn’t have much of an all-around game and his ceiling is probably Klay Thompson-lite (not necessarily a bad thing).

Both Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball, who are projected to go 1-2, are very good fits with the Sixers– they are ball-handling but not ball-dominant guards who can shoot. If either falls to three or is available to the Sixers through other means (cough, cough trade), then they’re your guy. End of story. Fultz is safer than Ball, who displayed a concerning lack of competitive fire twice going up against Fox this year, and has a dad who is, without exaggeration, actively working against his son’s interests. But both players fit the Sixers well. So let me get this out of the way: If the Sixers can trade up and get Fultz, or Ball falls to them, then that’s their guy. There won’t be any compromise to be had.

Assuming those players aren’t available, though, they’ll have to consider which compromise they’re OK with. Do you take Jackson and wait for his shooting to develop? Or do you reach for Monk because you know he fits a need?

Additionally, the Sixers’ draft decisions will obviously influence their free agency and trade options. If somehow they land Fultz or Ball, you could make an argument that they wouldn’t need to make a splash in free agency this summer. But if they wind up with any of the more likely picks, then they will be compelled to spend big or make a sizable trade to accelerate the process, which Bryan Colangelo seems hell-bent on doing. Any big-name signing, too, would represent a compromise.

There are a lot of options, and each will dictate or influence another. Few are ideal or what you would draw up in a perfect world. Alas, our world isn’t perfect. So, what are the best options? What SHOULD the Sixers do? I have made my decision(s).

 

Draft Josh Jackson and sign Kyle Lowry

Jackson is a supreme talent who is both a dynamic offensive player and a disruptive, promising defensive player. At 6’8, he can guard multiple positions and would give the Sixers yet another tall, versatile defender and could help turn them into one of the league’s most feared defensive units. He is crazy athletic, would be super fun in transition running with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, and has a sneaky good passing ability (especially as he gains the paint) that would make the combo of him and Simmons attacking from the wings downright terrifying to opposing defenses, even if both players aren’t great shooters.

Jackson’s shot did improve markedly during the second half of the season at Kansas. Part of that was because defenses sagged off him, but part of it was because he genuinely got better. He is extraordinary competitive and his shot seems more consistent when he’s playing in rhythm or “in the heat of the moment.” He made plenty of tough, contested jump shots, albeit not three-pointers. To me, it seems easier to take a superior athlete with an all-around game and superb defensive skills and give him a shot than it does to take a shooter and give him an all-around game and make him want to play defense (I’m talking about Malik Monk).

Most mock drafts lean toward the Sixers taking Jackson at three. Here’s how Yahoo!’s The Vertical describes it in their most recent mock:

The 76ers are still trying to figure out their point-guard situation. Ben Simmons may end up spending quite a bit of time there offensively, but landing outside of the top two picks complicates things. Their consolation prize is Jackson, perhaps the top two-way wing in the draft. Jackson’s strong shooting late in the year for Kansas offered a glimpse into his offensive upside and could make him a fit for the 76ers. They are reportedly very high on Malik Monk as well, are expected to field trade offers and could go in any number of directions on draft night.

Jackson is a safe pick at three, even if he doesn’t fit the Sixers perfectly.

What to do next?

Sign Kyle Lowry to a max deal.

If the Sixers draft Jackson, they will need to acquire a guard this offseason. Lowry is the best available. This isn’t my Nova thing coming into play (OK, it’s a little bit my Nova thing), but Lowry is really good. He’s 31 and is coming off the best season of his career. He shot 41% from three-point range and was among the most prolific long-distance shooters in the league. If you had watched Lowry at Villanova or early in his career, you’d have trouble believing he was a + three-point shooter in the NBA. He used to shoot the ball with his wrist and fire it at a low trajectory toward the rim. His form doesn’t look all that different than it used to, but it is very easily repeatable, he gets his shot off quickly and sets his feet almost instantly. Yet he remains very much a point guard who is excellent with the ball in his hands, but he doesn’t dominate the ball (he just turned in the best season of his career playing alongside DeMar DeRozan, who had a 34.1 usage rate*). His shooting ability will allow him to slowly transition ball-handling duties to Simmons and still be effective as an off-ball scorer. Will he be an ideal three-point shooter making well over $30 million per year in years 3 and 4 of a max contract at ages 33 and 34? No, of course. But again, this offseason is all about compromise. Lowry wouldn’t just be a spot-up shooter, either. Though pudgy-ish and somewhat prone to injuries, he appears to still have plenty left in the tank and relies as much on brute force as he does speed to get into the lane and finish tough shots. He’s a bulldog, good defender, and strong leader.

*DeRozan’s usage rate was third in the league behind Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Lowry’s was a full 10 points lower and 42nd in the league. All this, and he turned in a career-high 22 points per game, not to mention 7 assists and nearly 5 rebounds.

The Sixers have plenty of cap space and can afford to pay Lowry without really limiting their future options. There’s an argument to be made for signing J.J. Reddick, who’s a superior shooter and would likely come cheaper than Lowry, but he’s 33 and simply not as good of an all-around player. Lowry is better, younger, and he’s not the most hated player in college basketball history.

Drafting Jackson and signing Lowry would instantly make the Sixers a playoff team without completely abandoning the process. In two years, barring injures, they could legitimately be a top 3 team in the East.

 

Trade back and draft Malik Monk

If drafting Jackson and signing Lowry represents the largest acceleration of the process, trading back to draft Monk might represent the most measured, patient approach.

I really like Monk and think he’ll be a phenomenal NBA scorer one day. His offensive game most reminds me of Klay Thompson’s, though at 6’4 he’s shorter and therefore has less upside. Still, his range is ridiculous and he’s a bit of an unconcious shooter. When he gets hot, he’s borderline unstoppable. He’s not fully one-dimensional and is more athletic than most pure shooters, but he isn’t a great defender and gives off a Swaggy P vibe, which is concerning.

Still, if the Sixers can come out of this draft by filling a need with Monk and obtain another first round pick – presumably the Kings’ – it’d be hard to argue with that strategy. Had they just gotten the fifth pick, taking Monk would be almost a no-brainer.

Drafting Monk also wouldn’t necessarily restrict the Sixers from signing Lowry, the way I think drafting Fultz, Ball or even Fox would (they’d be largely redundant). Alternatively, drafting Fox, a point guard who can’t shoot, would still make signing Reddick a possibility. But I think the Sixers, barring a crazy, unforeseen trade (totally possible!), would be best served drafting Jackson and signing Lowry, or trading back to take Monk.

 

So, to recap:

Ideal option: Trade up to get Markelle Fultz, or take Ball if the Lakers over-think it.

Best, most realistic option: Draft Josh Jackson and sign Kyle Lowry.

Long shot, most prudent option: Trade back and draft Monk.