Dumb and Dumber
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OK I want to be clear from the beginning here that I am not going to piss all over a thrilling Eagles win. Even if the win would be turned on by such a thing, I’m just not going to do it. But I may be a little rough with it and slap it around for a few minutes.
Doug Pederson is, by my estimation, an idiot.
Ben McAdoo, an overgrown blueberry who tries his best to look like a casino pit boss on the lam from a violent gambling syndicate he uncovered, may be even dumber.
4th and 8
In case you are living in a cave or, like our coach, lack the ability to process basic information about the time-score continuum, here’s a brief synopsis: The Eagles were up 7-0 with 2:36 remaining in the second quarter and the ball on the Giants’ 43 yard line. Rather than punt and pin an offense that had, up to that point, been struggling to move the ball deep in their own territory (which the Eagles almost did earlier in the game if not for confusion at the 1 yard line), Pederson elected to go for it. Carson Wentz was sacked. The Giants took over at midfield, quickly drove to the goal line, and then ejaculated away points because McAdoo elected to throw from the shotgun on third and 1 with the ball on the goal line, the NFL’s catch rules are stupid, and the Eagles’ defense came up huge. But make no mistake, Doug Pederson sent the Giants a gift horse worth at least three points, and Ben McAdoo, fearful that his newly-acquired equine was a plant meant to disrupt the integrity of the race he was sworn to protect, immediately looked it in the mouth, kicked it in the balls, and sent it back neighing and screaming to Pederson, who, not knowing how to react, shot it in the hooves.
Here’s how Pederson described his thinking to reporters after the game and to Angelo Cataldi on 94 WIP this morning.
“It was something that I discussed with the guy that’s helping me upstairs with some of the analytics and where we were on the field, what we were doing offensively at the time,” Pederson said. “The defense was playing extremely well. Had an opportunity to keep ourselves on the field at that time, so I elected to go for it at that point. Obviously, we didn’t get it and the defense held. … I stand by my decision.”
WIP:
“Again, I’m getting a lot of information. My decision making is based on the information that is given to me in real time at the game,” Pederson told Angelo Cataldi and the 94WIP Morning Show on Monday during his weekly 8:00 a.m. call in. “Even if you completed a pass, and say you ended up short, you’re still in a positive situation.”
Miraculously, New York did not score after a 2nd-and-goal catch came inches short and a 3rd-and-goal touchdown catch was ruled incomplete solely because of the NFL’s curious catch ruling.
“Each one is different,” Pederson said. “I elected to go for it yesterday, this week coming up could be different. I also factored in how well our defense was playing. In fact, if you remember, the Giants go down on that drive and we stop them right before halftime — 4th-and-goal — at basically the half inch line.”
Cataldi then bluntly told Pederson, Philadelphia would like you to not go for it in those types of situations anymore.
“You know what, I would probably have to agree with you, yes,” Pederson admitted.
GTFO.
Tacking on to recent REVELATIONS that the Eagles allow math to dictate their fourth down decisions, Pederson spoke of analytics much the same way a crazy person speaks about the voice in their head– like, it may have been telling them to do something ridiculous, but that doesn’t make it right and it certainly doesn’t excuse it. For all we know, Doug thinks Analytics are a dietary supplement they give the players. Never mind the fact that Pederson is a solid 10 on the Ruben Amaro Thinks Analytics Is The Box Score scale. I have about as much confidence in Doug interpreting complex data as I do in a monkey fucking a stick of butter. Even if they position it right, they’re just gonna make a mess before it squirts out of their grasp.
But hey, let’s dig into Pederson’s so-called “math.”
Here’s what the New York Times’ 4th down bot says about 4th and 8 on the opponent’s 43*, disregarding time and score:
*This is from the 2014 version, which is the most recent chart I can find. I have seen a scale that dictates you do go for it in this situation. It’s possible more recent versions of their chart show different recommendations.
Translation: No don’t go for it.
This is where the conversation should end. But the whole point, and brilliance, of analytics is what you do with the data you’re given. Anyone can rely on a chart to make their decisions for them. The best coaches use the data to make informed decisions. Certainly this one fell right on the line. Even had the chart recommended the Eagles go for it (it didn’t), it would not have known that they were up 7-0 nearing halftime against a team that had struggled to move the ball. Pinning the Giants deep in their own end with so little time left and two timeouts would have made a scoring drive unlikely.
This is why it’s so concerning to have Doug Pederson as the head coach– he simply has not shown the intellect to interpret the data he’s given. This wasn’t a hard decision, and he got it wrong.
Blueberry Pit Boss
Incredibly, Pederson was saved from himself by McAdoo, who inexplicably threw the ball on 3rd and 1 at the goal line and then didn’t take the easy points on fourth down. Here was an opposing coach who gifted him free points at the end of the half and he didn’t take them. And he again neglected points, down 14-0 at the end of the third quarter, when he elected to go for it on 4th and 2 from the Eagles’ 13-yard line. Had he just done the sane thing and taken the points in either of those scenarios, the Giants probably would’ve won the game seeing as though they sufficiently wore down the Eagles’ secondary by the fourth quarter.
Dumb Begets Dumb
Remarkably, McAdoo is sentient. He actually learned his failed tactics from Pederson himself, who did the EXACT SAME THING in New York last year!
The Eagles lost 28-23 to the Giants on November 6 after Pederson twice went for it – and failed – on fourth and short in Giants territory. Had he just taken the points on the road, my basic math skills tells me the Eagles would’ve won the game. I wrote a whole post about it at the time.
So it’s truly incredible that the overgrown fruit berry in sunglasses did the same thing on the road against the Eagles this year. McAdoo and Pederson stare at each other from across the field and think they’re looking directly into a mirror. Imagine the two of them trying to solve a palindrome– they’d just keep spelling the same word over and over again.
Gifts
The Eagles should’ve lost.
Set aside, for a moment, the fact that the paranoid pit boss left six points on the board– the Eagles were still the beneficiary of multiple gifts.
They blew a 14-0 lead. Jalen Mills and Rasul Douglas, who up until that point had played well against Odell Beckham, Jr. and Brandon Marshall, got torched in the fourth quarter. Once the Giants went up 21-14, it looked like this was gonna turn out to be an awful loss for the Eagles, but credit to Carson Wentz and the offense overall for gutting out the win.
It wasn’t without its gifts.
Not only did McAdoo make two bad calls right before halftime, but the Eagles were helped out by a bad NFL catch rule that negated an excellent throw to Sterling Shepard in the end zone.
The Eagles were the beneficiary of two pass interference calls against Eli Apple. Both came on balls that were likely not catchable, one of which was a somewhat dangerous heave to the goal line. Both extended drives and led to Eagles touchdowns, one of which came on the ensuing play and tied the game at 21.
The Giants missed out on a first down on what was shaping up to be a 12 men on the field call against the Eagles on third and 2 in the fourth quarter. Rather, John Jerry was whistled for a weird delay of game call when he barely grabbed Elijah Qualls as he tried to run off the field to avoid said penalty. The Giants didn’t get the first down and kicked a field goal to go up 24-21. If you’re keeping score at home, it’s possible they left another four points on the board here, bringing the total up to 10.
So, to recap, the Eagles needed the Giants to leave six points on the board for them, a touchdown reversal, two pass interference calls against Eli Apple, a strange delay of game penalty and a 61-yard field goal to win a game at home in which they were five-point favorites and led 14-0 in the fourth quarter. Math tells me the odds of that happening again are low.
