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For the second week in a row, I started a Bird Droppings post and got about halfway through before I realized that most of the points I intended to make had been made, better, by either Kevin Kinkead or Sean Cottrell in their deep dive posts.

More immediately, I realized that today most of mine centered on the notion as to whether the Eagles are contenders or not. So I’m just gonna spin this off into a separate post.

Here’s what we know: It appears we have ourselves a real football team. If nothing else, the Eagles’ 3-1 start in an average division should keep them in contention right up through the end of the season, say nothing of the fact that they are 2-0 in said division with a road win over one of their two competitors (I’m not counting the Giants, who are ‘neath a trash heap somewhere).

All the more impressive is that three of their first four games were on the road and part of a stretch that most moronic schedule dolts thought they’d come out of 2-2, at best. Funny how the real world works, though. Now they’ll play four of their next five games at home, all against beatable teams, with the exception of that Broncos game which SHOULD be tough:

This sets up well seeing as though the back half of the schedule includes the Cowboys (twice), road games against the Seahawks, Rams and Giants, and theeeeeeeeeee Raaaaaaaaaaaiders on Christmas. Let’s say, conservatively, the Eagles’ go 3-2 over their next five, including a loss to the Broncos and another one that Doug Pederson gives away at home. They’ll be 6-3 heading into the home stretch. A 3-4 finish would probably win them the division. NOT BAD!

Here’s how the NFC breaks down right now based on my extensive RedZone viewing:

  1. Packers
  2. Falcons
  3. Eagles
  4. Cowboys
  5. Bucs
  6. Rams
  7. Seahawks
  8. Lions
  9. Panthers
  10. Vikings

Yeah, I know, the Rams just beat the Cowboys in Dallas. But the Cowboys, though depleted defensively, come into the season with a better pedigree and were missing linebacker Sean Lee yesterday, which may have been the difference between a win and a loss. The Rams, though exciting offensively, have played the Colts, Redskins and 49ers. Let’s see how rookie head coach and strikingly attractive gnome Sean McVay perform against better competition.

The Seahawks looking bad in the beginning of the season is nothing new. They seem to be able to turn it on at the right time, which they did last night against a dreadful Colts squad that should fire its coach, the worst in football.

Similarly, I’m not going to write off a team that was leading 28-3 in the Super Bowl last year because of an iffy start under a new offensive coordinator. The Falcons have one of the best quarterbacks in football, one of the best running backs, and maybe the best wide receiver. They’ll rise.

The Packers have Aaron Rodgers and I’m convinced he’s the only player in football who could win a Super Bowl on his own. Brady has Belichick. Rodgers has only the saved snapchats from Olivia Munn, and I’m not sure that’s helping him on the field.

Point is, there are still very good teams that have yet to hit their stride. The Eagles have wins against three subpar teams, though they did hang with the Chiefs.

So where does that leave the Eagles?

They are at the same spot they were after four games last year, but the circumstances couldn’t be more different.

A Week 4 bye week last year spiked their early momentum, gave the league a chance to figure out what Doug Pederson was doing, and meant 13-straight weeks of football for the Birds. Their eight games after the bye were horrific:

Three road divisional games in four weeks, with the Falcons, Seahawks and Packers tacked on at the end (they beat the Falcons!).

This year the story is obviously much different. But besides just the schedule advantages (the back half of the schedule is nothing compared to the stretch they faced last season), the team as a whole is in a much better spot.

The defense has a full year with Jim Schwartz under its belt, more line depth, and slightly more experienced cornerbacks. They have proven to be one of the more formidable units in the league and Schwartz has shown that he can scheme around weakness (forcing the Giants to throw underneath).

Offensively, Wentz is obviously a year older, but there also appears to be a more consistent running game. I wouldn’t expect the near perfect 50-50 splits we’ve gotten the last two weeks against winless teams. But LeGarrette Blount, if nothing else, gives them someone to handle the load, freeing them up to play to Wendell Smallwood’s and Corey Clement’s strengths. Losing Darren Sproles hurts, but as we discussed on the podcast this morning, for years the Eagles treated him as sort of a bailout option they could turn to when the offense sputtered. It always felt like oh fine, we can use the Sproles button even though we’re taking snaps off his career each time we have to do it. As we saw yesterday, not having Sproles forced Pederson to be a bit more specific in his plan of attack, and sure enough it worked.

On the other hand, the Eagles’ running game has broken out against two winless teams with poor run defenses in positive game script situations. Things are going to change, and in a hurry, playing much more formidable Cardinals and Panthers defenses the next two weeks.

The passing game is, obviously, improved year over a year, with Alshon Jeffery, a healthy Zach Ertz, and Nelson Agholor residing outside of his own head. Only Torrey Smith is truly frustrating, but he at least possesses enough athletic ability to keep defenses honest.

The best thing the Eagles have going for them is their consistency in putting up points and hanging in games:

That’s impressive. For all of his faults as a tactician, Doug Pedreson excels at scheming and manages to come up with unique and effective game plans each week to put his team in a position to win. The problem is that the Eagles don’t have enough talent to overcome tougher matchups, and Pederson may be a handicap when it comes time for impactful in-game decisions. So, in my view, the Eagles are not Conference Championship contenders. You can argue that the other fourth teams in my top 5 all have more talent, and that’s before you get to more experienced Seahawks and Panthers squads, both of which may have found their footing in the second half yesterday.

Right now, the Eagles are better than the Cowboys. But barely. The entire season may hinge on their two showdowns. They can certainly win the division, but my guess is their ceiling would be 10-6 and one playoff win. I’d take that.