Just how important is tonight’s game for the Eagles as they try to keep their fading playoff hopes alive? According to PlayoffStatus.com, a loss to the Redskins on Monday Night Football would drop their odds of reaching the postseason under 1%. A win, however, would keep the Eagles afloat for at least one more week ahead of their rematch with the Cowboys. The playoff outlook is not as mathematically dire for the 6-5 Redskins, but after a season-ending leg injury to quarterback Alex Smith and two-straight losses, Washington needs a win to keep up with Dallas in the division race.
As of the early afternoon, the Eagles are a 6-point favorite at most sportsbooks. The public likes the underdog Redskins, with only 40% of point-spread bettors backing the Eagles, but 51% of the money is on Philly. That’s up from 46% of the money at 10 a.m. today, so some sharp money has flowed in on the Eagles over the past few hours. In terms of the total, 57% of tickets and 72% of the money is on the over.
So where’s the value? As of this morning, those looking to take the Eagles against the spread should head to SugarHouseSportsbook and grab them at -6 (-107). Those that like the Redskins can get them for the optimal price at SugarHouse at +6 (-107). Moneyline bettors on Philadelphia can get them at FanDuel Sportsbook for -240, while SugarHouse offers the best payout on Washington at +215. Totals bettors on the under should grab it at 45.5 (-108) with SugarHouse, while those on the over can get 45 (-110) at FanDuel.
DraftKings Sportsbook is offering new users a 3x Profit Boost on winning bets backing Philly (exclusive, use this link to get that offer) tonight, while BetStars NJ has a ton of potentially lucrative Odds Boosts. Here’s some of them:
Trends to know
Not a Pretty ATS Picture for Eagles
The Eagles’ 3-8 record ATS gives them the NFL’s third-worst cover rate this season at 27.3%, while the Redskins’ 7-4 ATS mark is the league’s sixth-best at 63.6%. Do cover rates actually matter? In the Eagles’ case, probably. Despite inconsistent and underwhelming play as one the league’s most mediocre teams not only in overall record, but also across many major statistical categories, the Eagles have opened as a favorite in 11 of their 12 games, including tonight’s contest. One could argue the Eagles are still getting too much respect for last season’s performance, causing bloated spreads they are simply not good enough to cover.
Something to consider: The Eagles have struggled as a favorite, going only 7-5 straight-up and a putrid 2-10 ATS over their last 12 games in this role. Additionally, no team has been worse against the spread at home this season than the Eagles (1-5), and they are one of only three NFL teams that have failed to cover following a win this season (0-4). They also haven’t won back to back games this season. The Redskins, meanwhile, have excelled at covering the spread after a loss this season (3-1), but that one loss did come last week in Dallas with Colt McCoy under center.
The Redskins came into the weekend 23rd in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.8), which is seemingly an advantage for the Eagles.
Under Doug Pederson, the Eagles are 4-7 straight-up and a miserable 1-10 ATS versus opponents that allow more than 7.5 yards per pass attempt. They are also 1-11 ATS under Pederson against defenses allowing at least 5.8 yards per play.
But wait, there’s more!
The Eagles are 0-6 ATS this season when facing a defense allowing a completion percentage of 64% or greater. One theory that explains these baffling situational struggles is that Pederson has a propensity to call a one-dimensional, pass-happy offense against teams with weaker defenses, as if he simply can’t help himself. The Eagles did, however, commit to the run game and it paid huge dividends in their win over the Giants last week, so maybe he will learn from his past failings and stay balanced? We’ll see.
One more interesting note: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott threw for 289 yards on Thanksgiving against the Redskins defense, which bodes well for Washington tonight. The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous contest.
I know I’m not painting a pretty picture for those looking to back the Eagles tonight, but they are 7-5 under Pederson in prime time, and two of the Eagles’ three covers this season have come at night. That’s about the best I can do for you on the pro-Philly trends front, but the Eagles are at home, should be desperate, and have the better quarterback. So there’s that.
The under is on a roll
Currently, the total is set between 45 and 45.5 at most sportsbooks for this contest, and theoretically, it contextually seems like a good opportunity to play the over. The Eagles have struggled defensively, and their offense has to explode at some point, right? But the trends strongly back the under.
The under has hit in 17 of 24 Eagles games at Lincoln Financial Field under Pederson, and it is on a 9-2 run dating back to late last November. This season, the under has hit in five of six games at The Linc.
Beyond the Eagles’ own tendencies, there’s a strong historical league-wide trend backing the under. After Week 10, including the postseason, the under on totals between 44.5 and 60 in a division game has gone 166-102-3. For context, if a situation hits at a 62% rate over more than a 15-year sample, that’s pretty damn strong.
Just some things to consider before getting in your bets tonight.