High-powered No. 1 seed Gonzaga used its prolific offense to rip through Fairleigh Dickinson and Baylor last weekend by a combined 50-point margin and, in the process, earned its fifth-consecutive appearance in the Sweet 16. Awaiting them on Thursday night in Anaheim will be No. 4 seed Florida State, which just so happens to be the same team that ended the Bulldogs’ season in this very same round a season ago.

Spicy.

Gonzaga comes into this matchup with the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense (88.6 points per game), No. 1 field goal percentage (53.2%), and top two-point shooting percentage (66.2%), all while limiting opponents to a 38.7% field goal percentage. There’s a reason Gonzaga outscores its opponents by nearly 23.8 points per game. That, and, well, they play in the WCC. Sorry. The truth hurts.

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That slight aside, there’s no doubt Mark Few’s squad is one of the best all-around teams in the country and looks poised to advance to both the Elite Eight and beyond. The Bulldogs are an experienced and talented team, one that is also getting terrific play from forward Brandon Clarke. The junior transfer leads the country with a nearly 70% field goal percentage and is coming off a monstrous performance against Baylor in which he dropped 36 points, but the Gonzaga attack by no means is a one-man show. Rui Hachimura, Zach Norvell Jr., and Josh Perkins provide the Bulldogs with terrific scoring depth and balance.

Still, if there is a team in this tournament that feels they can stop Gonzaga, it’s probably the Seminoles. Florida State has faced plenty of tough competition having played loaded ACC schedule and its hallmark length and athleticism often causes headaches for opponents–even ones that are seemingly equipped to deal with it. The Seminoles are allowing only 67 points per game and opponents are shooting only 40.7% from the floor and 45.5% on two-point attempts, good for the nation’s 31st and 23rd   lowest opponent shooting percentages, respectively. Florida State is also among the best rebounding teams in the country and will provide a physical test rarely encountered by the Bulldogs during the regular season.

Trends

Gonzaga has been a profitable performer against the spread overall this season going 22-13 ATS and 21-12 ATS as a favorite. The Bulldogs are also 2-0 ATS when favored between 5.5 to 9.5 points. Florida State, meanwhile, is 3-4 overall as an underdog, but a brutal 1-4 straight up when favored by seven points or more.

It’s difficult not to look at the performance of No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16 and think that Florida State could pull off an upset for the second straight season. When No. 1 seeds are favored in the Sweet 16, such teams are 38-8 SU and 24-21-1 ATS. What’s more, since the 2014 NCAA Tournament, No. 1 seeds that are also favored are an impressive 14-0 SU and 11-2-1 ATS.  But wait? Wouldn’t a No. 1 seed always be favored in the Sweet 16? Nope. In 2014, Michigan State was a short favorite over No. 1 seed Virginia and won outright.

What can we make of the point spread? No. 1 seeds favored by seven points or more in Sweet 16 games are 19-1 straight up and 12-8 ATS since the 2005 tournament. More specifically, when a No. 1 seed is favored by at least seven points over a No. 4 seed in Sweet 16 games, those teams are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS. One more thing: Gonzaga 3-0 ATS when favored between 7 to 10.5 points.

Prediction

While Florida State is one of the most underappreciated teams in the nation, Gonzaga is arguably its most complete. Given the dominant performance of No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16, particularly when generously favored, and the revenge factor at play here, I like the Bulldogs to advance to the Elite Eight and also cover the spread.