Jay Wright has to like the spot he’s in right now. He’s got two national championships and three straight Big East Tournament titles in his back pocket. His team has won seven straight NCAA Tournament games, and, by the way, it is one win away from a Sweet 16 appearance. Best of all? He gets to sell his squad, one that has experienced an extraordinary amount of success in recent years, on the idea that it’s being both disrespected and counted out. No, teams that win to the degree which Villanova has won over the past three-plus don’t typically get to play this card (unless they’re the Patriots and somehow convince people they’re a feel-good story), but Wright has this luxury given his team enters tonight’s game against No. 3 seed Purdue as a four-point underdog when looking at the Villanova-Purdue odds. Also working in Wright’s favor should he choose to play the disrespect narrative is that his team will be fresh. After playing every game of the 2017-2018 season as the favorite, Villanova has only been an underdog five times this season. They are 4-0-1 against the spread in that situation.

So, can Villanova overcome the odds (feels weird writing that) to earn its eighth-straight tournament win and advance to the Sweet 16? Let’s take a look at all the need-to-know March Madness betting information to consider before locking in your plays on this game.

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Trends


As is the case with most games, there are historical trends that favor each team in this game. Let’s begin with what those backing Villanova should feel good about. The Boilermakers have been anywhere between a three to four-point favorite since this game hit the board, which appears to be excellent news for ‘Nova. The Wildcats are 3-2 straight up and 4-0-1 against the spread as an underdog this season. Their outright wins in this role came against Florida State, Creighton, and Butler, while they covered at Kansas in a 74-71 loss as a seven-point underdog. The push came in a one-point loss at Marquette. More specifically, when Villanova is an underdog of four points or less, as they are here, they’re 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS. It’s true that sometimes these trends lack substance or context, but Villanova’s success getting points shouldn’t come as a surprise. A well-coached team that can rip the three and score efficiently from inside the arc (the Wildcats’ 53.9% two-point shooting-percentage is 49th in the country this season) while getting points is always going to be a good play.

Now, let’s next take a look at how underdogs and lower seeds have performed in this specific tournament.

It can be easy to fall into the trap of looking at seeds and spreads to formulate expected outcomes, which if you didn’t already know, is typically a bad idea when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. Underdogs have performed well, going 21-15 ATS, and underdogs of four points or less are 9-6 ATS, good for a solid 60% cover rate. Lower-seeded teams that are also the underdog are an impressive 20-11 ATS through the tournament’s first two days. Throw in lower-seeded UCF, which was a 1.5-point favorite, and that number bumps to 21-11 ATS. Want more? I’ve got more. Lower-seeded teams that are an underdog of four points or less are 9-2 ATS. And teams that are between one to three seeds lower than their opponent are 7-1 ATS in this tournament. What, then, is the applicable thesis to attach to this data? It’s unwise to factor seeding into the equation when making spread bets, particularly when there exists a short spread.

Finally, let’s take a look at the other side of this equation. Purdue has been somewhat successful covering the number when favored this season. The Boilermakers are 15-12 ATS overall, but have struggled as a short favorite. They’re only 2-6 ATS when favored by six points or less, whereas they are 13-6 ATS when favored by more than six points. Additionally, Purdue is only 4-5 ATS against AP Top 25 teams this season and only 6-8 ATS as a favorite on the road or a neutral court, and 2-7 ATS when favored by six or less or when the game is a pick’em.

So, what gives? I said up top that there’s some data that backs both sides, but then just spent 447 words explaining why Villanova is a great play. Well, here’s the other side of it.

Those backing the Boilermakers should feel good about the following:

  • Teams seeded between 1 to 3 sports higher than their opponent are 35-24-1 ATS since ’05.
  • Teams seeded exactly 3 spots higher than their opponent are 19-6 SU and 15-9-1 ATS in Round of 32 games since ‘05.
  • No. 3 seeds are 17-6 straight up and 13-9-1 ATS against No. 6 seeds during that time.
  • Tournament teams favored by 3.5 points or less are still 37-23 straight up overall and, more specifically, 12-6 straight up when favored between 3-3.5 points the last 18 this was the game spread.

 

A difference maker

Kyle: Trends are cool and all, but I have some context on why you should like Nova to outperform expectations, particularly as a six seed.

His name is Jermaine Samuels.

He’s a future NBA player (that is something you heard here first) and he was held scoreless nine times this season, including three-straight games in February (all losses). Since then, he is averaging 13.5 points per game, including a 29-point performance against Marquette, and 8.2 rebounds per game. Villanova is 6-1 in that stretch. They lost five of the games where he didn’t score.

Samuels has emerged as a reliable scorer and shooter to complement his excellent rebounding abilities. He makes Villanova a different team, and guess what, they’re again playing their best ball at the end of the season. This is as tough as a matchup Purdue could draw, and given Villanova’s strength against the spread as an underdog and the fact that they’re playing well right now, this is a lean on Nova to cover and maybe win outright.

 

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