Texas Tech at Michigan State Odds: Line, Prediction, Betting Analysis

Texas Tech will meet Michigan State in the Final Four on Saturday night and NJ sportsbooks are offering action. Let’s take a look at the betting lines along with trends and analysis for Texas Tech-Michigan State.

Odds

The line for this Final Four showdown opened with Michigan State as a short -3 and total of 133. Michigan State is currently a 2.5-point favorite and -160 on the moneyline at most NJ betting sites. You can find more about where the money is going in our DraftKings Final Four betting guide, otherwise keep reading.

Stats

Michigan State enters the Final Four for the eighth time under head coach Tom Izzo, and despite his program being a perennial title contender, it’s a bit of a surprise that the Spartans are playing in Minneapolis on Saturday night.

No. 2 seed Michigan State knocked off No. 1 overall seed Duke to win the East Region and set up a date with West Region winner Texas Tech, a program making its Final Four debut. This one should be a defensive slugfest with a trip to the National Championship game on the line.

Michigan State has shot an efficient 48.4% from the floor while limiting opponents to only 37.1% shooting this season, the third-lowest rate in the country, and a stingy 65.1 points per game. The Spartans rely heavily on star guard Cassius Winston. It’s not an understatement to suggest that as Winston goes, so does Michigan State. Fortunately for Tom Izzo’s squad, Winston, the Big Ten Player of the Year and All-American, has been outstanding through four games of the NCAA Tournament, and his excellence was on full display during his team’s 68-67 upset win over Duke. Winston logged 40 minutes, scored 20 points, and added 10 assists to pace the Spartans’ attack.

Also shining in that game was Michigan State’s Xavier Tillman. The sophomore forward tied a career high with 19 points, shooting 8 for 12 from the floor. He also added three steals and two blocked shots while spending most of his night trying to slow down Duke’s Zion Williamson.

Just as Winston keys Michigan State, guard Jarett Culver drives Texas Tech.

The sophomore averages 18.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. Through four tournament games, Culver is averaging 21.5 points per contest, helping lead the Red Raiders past No. 2 seed Michigan in the Sweet 16 and No. 1 seed Gonzaga in the Elite Eight.

Also big in Texas Tech’s upset win over the Bulldogs was senior guard Matt Mooney, who added 17 points and five assists.

Still, if the Red Raiders are going to reach the final, it will more than likely be on the strength of their suffocating defense, which has held opponents to the nation’s second-lowest field percentage (36.9%), the third-lowest two-point percentage (42%), and third-lowest points per game total (59.1). That elite defense showed up in Texas Tech’s win over Gonzaga, holding the West Region’s No. 1 seed to more than 17 points below its season average.

Betting trends

Let’s first look at how each of these teams have performed against the number this season.

Michigan State is one of the nation’s top ATS teams. The Spartans are 27-11 ATS overall, 24-9 ATS as a favorite, and 3-1 ATS thus far in the NCAA Tournament. Perhaps one of the most mind-blowing trends I’ve seen in college basketball this season is this: Michigan State is 18-1 ATS against teams with a .650 or better winning percentage. Just absurd. The Spartans are also a perfect 5-0 ATS this season when favored by five points or less and are 15-7 ATS when playing with at least four days of rest. Lastly, Tom Izzo’s squad is 9-1 straight up in neutral court games.

Texas Tech, meanwhile, has also been a good ATS bet. The Red Raiders have covered 12 of their last 14 games and are the only Final Four team that has been perfect against the spread throughout this tournament.  I mentioned above Michigan State’s success against winning teams this season, and while Texas Tech isn’t quite at the same level, it’s also been a good bet against teams with a higher than .650 winning-percentage, going 14-6-1 ATS. The Red Raiders are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games against Big Ten teams and 11-7 ATS in neutral court games.

There’s also another important and overwhelming ATS trend to note with Texas Tech: It is 8-0 in second half covers during tournament games under Chris Beard and 12-3 ATS in the second half over its last 15 games overall. If Texas Tech is down at halftime and there’s an attainable second half line, it may be worth considering an in-game live bet.

Now, let’s take a look at some situational trends.

Higher-seeded teams are 17-3 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in Final Four games since 2005. Meanwhile, teams favored by three points or less are 8-4-1 ATS and 5-3 ATS when favored between two and three points. Big Ten teams are 12-12 SU and 13-11 ATS, while Big 12 teams are 6-6 SU and 7-5 ATS in Final Four games since 2005. While several of these trends favor the Spartans, consider this: No. 2 seeds are only 13-15 SU and a brutal 10-18 ATS in Final Four games, while No. 3 seeds are 10-6 SU and a stellar 13-3 ATS since ‘05.

Prediction

The Red Raiders have been red-hot against the number over the past few weeks and their defense should keep them in the game, but, ultimately, I can’t ignore the track record of success by higher-seeded teams in the Final Four, nor can I ignore Michigan State’s absurd 18-1 ATS record when playing elite teams this season. The Spartans showed their mettle in a slugfest with Duke, and I think they punch their ticket to the championship game here.

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