Sixers Raptors Game 5 Betting Preview: Odds, Line, Prediction

Game 5. For all the marbles. Well, not exactly, but if the Raptors win and take a commanding 3-2 lead in the series, it’s doubtful the Sixers will be able to claw back and win two consecutive games, one of which would be a Game 7 in Toronto. NJ sportsbooks heavily favor the Raptors in this one, but there are some trends, and maybe the basic eye test, working in favor of the Sixers. Let’s get in to our Sixers-Raptors Game 5 betting preview.

Odds

Here are the Sixers-Raptors odds for Game 5:

DraftKings Sportsbook

PointsBet

This feels like a high line. The Sixers handled the Raptors soundly in Games 2 and 3, and the North requires Kawhi Leonard to shoot at an unsustainable clip to win. The Embiid sickness concern is real, but for the Sixers to be effectively a coin flip at home (+2 and then -2) while the Raptors are getting a touchdown in the basketball hotbed of frigid Toronto (for real, they wore coats during the Jurassic Park watch party) feels a bit off to me. The Sixers’ struggles in Toronto came with an entirely different team and I’m not sure really apply here.  Anyhow, the Raptors are 6-point favorites, with a total that has crept down due to strong defense being played in Games 3 and 4.

Free bets and parlay promos

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Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, they are offering a different type of insurance promotion. Users that place a single money line bet on any NBA Playoff game from now until May 10 will be protected up to $50 from a loss if their team scores 100 points first and goes on to lose the game.

General betting trends

Home teams favored between 6-10 points are 53-37-3 ATS in Game 5.

Home teams favored between 6-10 points coming off a Game 4 win are 23-13-1 ATS in Game 5, BUT only 8-17 ATS when favored between 5-7 points as the Raptors are here.

Sixers are 4-9 ATS when they’re an underdog between 4.5 and 7.5 points, but Toronto is only 10-12 when favored in the same range.

When the Raptors are favored at home and on a 1-3 game winning streak, they’re 11-5 ATS.

The Sixers are 21-12 ATS after a loss this season.

The Sixers are 5-3 ATS as a road underdog this season after a loss, including a win in Game 2.

Some situational trends not in the Sixers’ favor, but they do play well coming off a loss, a trend that has held up in a small sample size as a road dog.

Prop it up

Joel Embiid 21.5.

Over.

I like Embiid to go OFF tonight. I don’t know why, just call it a hunch. He’s a competitive guy who has had his very manhood doubted the last few days. I don’t mind taking a stance on a physically dominant player in that sort of situation. Never mind that Embiid scored more than 21 points in all four of the games he played against the Nets and in the one game in the Raptors series where he wasn’t battling some sort of apparent ailment, Game 3.

The bet? Take Embiid over 23 on a points bet at PointsBet. The under comes in at 21.5, so you’ll have low downside risk as Embiid put up 11 the other day, which had to be rock bottom for his sickness. If he goes off, you’ll cash in. Just nibble a bit here as this is an escalator bet and a small bet should do ya.

Over

Speaking of the over, bettors like it tonight (so do I). Sixers games have gone under six straight times, and the total has come down from 217 in Game 3, 214 in Game 4, and now 211 tonight. 64% of the money and 58% of the bets at DraftKings Sportsbook are on the over, and I think that factoid combined with the extra value makes the over a reasonable play tonight.

Head-to-head trends

Of course, these overall team performance trends don’t tell the entire story, so let’s go a little bit deeper and look at how the two squads have performed head-to-head this season. The Raptors have the slight advantage here, going 5-3ATS and SU against the Sixers this season. Toronto is 3-1 ATS and SU at home and 2-2 ATS and SU on the road.

Prediction

I don’t feel great about the Sixers winning tonight. It could happen, but underdogs of 4 or more on the road in Game 5 are 25-126, and road teams in Game 5 coming off a loss in Game 4 are 10-44. Not great. But the line gives the Raptors a lot of respect, and the Sixers have looked better than them for much of the series. I like the game to open up, Joel Embiid to have a big one, and the Sixers to cover the spread and keeps things close.

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