It can’t really end this way, can it? Will the Sixers really go quietly into the night, losing a third straight game, leaving the organization with major questions to answer about its star players and a coach currently in limbo? Or, will they figure things out, rally, and bring the series back to Toronto one more time? Let’s take a look at the odds, line, historical and team performance trends in our Sixers-Raptors Game 6 betting preview.
Here are the Sixers-Raptors odds for Game 6:
The Sixers were initially a small underdog in Game 4 before a major line shift spurred by Pascal Siakam’s injury uncertainty made the Sixers a small favorite, so this line probably shouldn’t be a surprise. The value is similar across the board, but if you’re looking to get in on the over, DraftKings is offering one point of value, while PointsBet is providing a better line for those on the under.
General betting trends
Let’s first start with each team’s overall performance against the spread. The Sixers haven’t been a good ATS bet this season, going only 44-48 overall. The Raptors are an almost identical 43-48-1 ATS. I don’t typically factor a team’s overall cover performance when picking the games, but these overall ATS records reveal absolutely no edge, so we’ll have to go deeper. In terms of home/road ATS performance, Philly is 24-22 ATS at home, while Toronto is 21-23-1 ATS on the road. It’s probably also worth noting that underdogs have won four of the last five games played at the Wells Fargo Center between these two teams, including both Games 3 and 4 of this series.
A Square favorite…
As good as Toronto is, they haven’t been a good ATS bet as a favorite this season. The Raptors are only 33-42-1, and, more specifically, an underwhelming 6-9 ATS when favored between 1 to 3.5 points. They are also only 11-17-1 ATS as a road favorite this season and 20-28-1 ATS when favored following one day of rest. None of this is promising for Toronto backers, particularly considering the Sixers are 9-3 ATS as an underdog in games following one day of rest.
… and an active underdog
The Sixers are only 13-15 as an underdog, but this specific spread would seem to bode well for the Sixers as they are 7-3 ATS when an underdog of 1 to 3.5 points. If you like a quicker outcome, you may also want to grab the Sixers in a first half bet. Philly has won the first half in each of their last seven games as a home underdog.
But home dogs are 9-25-1 ATS, including 10 straight, nine of which the road team has scored more than 100 and the home team hasn’t broken 100. Not good.
A resilient group
We’re going to see what type of fight this team has in Game 6, but if recent history is any indication, they should bounce back tonight. Let’s start with the bottom line. The Sixers are 25-9 SU after a loss this season and have only lost three straight games once this season. The Sixers are 83-46 ATS the last three years after playing a road game. They are 11-5 ATS after a loss when playing at home this season, and an outrageous 14-2 ATS in games following a loss as an underdog.
Small line, big points?
The over has hit in five of seven Raptors games when favored by three or less points.
Of course, these overall team performance trends don’t tell the entire story, so let’s also look at how the two squads have performed head-to-head this season. The Raptors have the slight advantage here, going 6-3 ATS and SU against the Sixers this season. Toronto is 2-2 ATS and 2-2 SU on the road.
PointsBet is offering a Joel Embiid-Kawhi Leonard boost to scored a combined 55 points at +160. You can get that here .
There’s enough trend data here that suggests the Sixers should play well in this spot. They’ve been active as an underdog with short lines, resilient after losses, and Toronto has struggled as favorite, particularly on the road. Moreover, from a contextual and narrative perspective, after an embarrassing performance in Game 5, I don’t think the Sixers go down without a fight. I expect them to play hard and do their best to keep their coach employed–for at least one more game. Give me the Sixers at +2 to win, cover, and send this thing back to Toronto for a decisive Game 7.