Daily Archives for June 5, 2019

DraftKings Sportsbook Has Released Betting Splits for Game 3 of the NBA Finals

Joe DiProsperos - June 5, 2019

Game 3 of the NBA Finals is set to tip off tonight at Oracle Arena in Oakland. With game time almost upon us, DraftKings Sportsbook released their betting splits for tonight’s game, with the Warriors as 4.5 point favorites:

NBA Finals Game 3 (Money Line)
% of Money
% of Bets
Warriors
54%
50%
Raptors
46%
50%

 

NBA Finals Game 3 (Spread)
% of Money
% of Bets
Warriors (-4.5)
43%
47%
Raptors (+4.5)
57%
53%

As you can see, DraftKings has moneyline bets split right down the middle with slightly more money going towards the Warriors. On the other hand, spread bets are slightly in the Raptors’ favor, as with the spread money.

It’s easy to see why betters would be leaning more towards the Raptors when it comes to the spread. Toronto has kept it pretty close throughout this series. After winning Game 1 pretty handily, Toronto was within striking distance at the end of Game 2 despite allowing that huge 18-0 Warriors run in the third quarter and being unable to connect on a ton of open looks. If a few of those shots go in, then you might be looking at a completely different ball game. It’s going to be tough for Toronto going into Oracle Arena, but there’s a good chance they could cover the spread.

On the other hand, it’s not particularly surprising that more money is being put on the Warriors. Despite Kevin Durant and backup center Kevon Looney out due to injury, Klay Thompson being hobbled, and DeMarcus Cousins still getting his feet under him, they’re still a very good team. Draymond Green is making a strong case for Finals MVP, Steph has still been performing despite an uneven Game 2, and their role guys have been stepping up bigtime. Plus, it certainly doesn’t help that they’re back in Oakland. When you take all of that into account, tonight’s game certainly looks like it could be in the Warriors’ favor.

With a 2-1 series advantage on the line in what’s proven to be an exciting NBA Finals thus far, tonight’s game should be very intriguing.

Report: Trent Williams Doesn’t Want to Play for the Redskins This Year

Kevin Kinkead - June 5, 2019

Let’s get it back to the Eagles.

The division rival Redskins seem like a bit of a hot mess.

Earlier this week Zach Brown talked about the difference in culture between Philadelphia and Washington, saying this:

“It’s different here. It’s a different mentality. Last year wasn’t a good experience for nobody down there. This place is night and day compared to there.

“In Washington, there were cliques. Here, I can go over there and mess with the offensive linemen. The running backs are right next to me, so I always give them crap. I give the receivers crap, too. You couldn’t do that there.“

Now starting left tackle Trent Williams is apparently uninterested in playing another season with the club. He’s skipping out on mandatory minicamp, and this was reported today by Jason La Canfora:

Williams has two years and $24 million remaining on his contract. He has the 5th highest average salary among left tackles, according to Spotrac.

At CBS Sports, John Breech has more on this “medical situation,” after the jump:

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Apple May Prove To Be a Big Problem For Online Sports Betting

Kyle Scott - June 5, 2019

Apple made a change to App Store policies which could have a massive impact on the online sports betting and gambling industry. The change is already impacting those of you in PA.

When SugarHouse Sportsbook officially launched and became the first operator to offer online sports betting in PA last week, they did so without being available on iOS at all– not through the App Store or on mobile web.

Why?

The issue was thought to be related to an app skin issue – SugarHouse effectively repeated its mobile web page* and New Jersey app in a new app for PA – but it turns out the reason is much more complex and troubling for the industry as a whole. I spoke to several industry sources to gain a better understanding of the issue, and there is some consensus that this will benefit pure-play online sportsbooks and hurt online casino brands who wish to offer sports betting.

*It doesn’t work on mobile web because website users are required to install a geo-location tool, which obviously you can’t do on iOS.

Apple’s App Store change

Here’s the problematic language:

Guideline 4.7. HTML5 games distributed in apps may not provide access to real money gaming, lotteries, or charitable donations, and may not support digital commerce. This functionality is only appropriate for code that’s embedded in the binary and can be reviewed by Apple. This guideline is now enforced for new apps. Existing apps must follow this guideline by September 3, 2019.

In other words, online gaming apps that take website code (HTML) and just wrap it into an app are a no-go.

This impacts casino brands which wish to offer casino games alongside their sportsbook more than it does traditional sports betting apps like DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and PointsBet.* The reason is that online casino games are more varied, complex and often developed by third parties who offer up their code to casinos which can then easily implement the games on their website or skin them for an app (simplified explanation here).

*We’ve only confirmed this in regards to PointsBet– it’s unclear if DraftKings or FanDuel are skins.

Some sportsbook software from the pure-play sports betting apps, while often developed in tandem with a third party, is coded as a native app on mobile.

 

A big problem in PA

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SB Nation Writers are Tweeting Their CEO, Asking for a Fair Labor Contract

Kevin Kinkead - June 5, 2019

You may have noticed that some local sports writers changed their social media avatars today and are tweeting at a guy named Jim Bankoff.

Bankoff is the CEO of Vox Media, which owns the SB Nation network of websites, represented in Philly by Bleeding Green Nation, Broad Street Hockey, The Good Phight, Liberty Ballers, and The Brotherly Game. SB Nation editorial staff unionized more than a year ago but have yet to reach a contract agreement with Vox, so today’s demonstration is a combined effort to get this thing moving and push Bankoff to respond.

BLG over at Bleeding Green wrote the following:

And here’s Michael Kist, who also writes for BGN, after the jump:

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NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Preview: Lines, Odds, Prediction

BWanksCB - June 5, 2019

The NBA Finals heads west to Oracle Arena tonight for a pivotal Game 3 between the Raptors and Warriors after two hotly-contested games north of the border. Let’s get after it in our Game 3 betting preview.

Those of you in Pennsylvania, can find out more about how to get in on the action on our PA sports betting page.

Those of you in New Jersey, hit our NJ online sports betting page.

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Betting preview

There’s still no Kevin Durant for Golden State and Klay Thompson is on the injury report after tweaking his hamstring in Game 2, but it’s still hard not to feel like the momentum is in their favor now that they’re back at home. Consider this: Golden State is 169-36 at Oracle Arena dating back to the start of the 2015-2016 season, winning 82.4% of their games played there. They’re an even more remarkable 36-6 at during the postseason, good for an 85.7% win-percentage. Crazy town.

Steph Curry comes in having scored at least 33 points in six of his last seven contests, and if Golden State can get anything close to the spirited 11 points and 11 rebounds DeMarcus Cousins gave them in Game 2, the Raptors could be up against it. Either way, they’ll need to look more like they did in Game 1 when they shot over 50% from the field and just over 39% from three, and much less like they did this past Sunday when they shot only 37% from the floor and 29% from the field. If they run back that type of offensive performance tonight with prolonged cold spells and allow the Warriors to rip off anything close to their 18-0 third quarter run of Game 2, things are going to get ugly.

So, who’s going to get it done and seize the upper-hand? Let’s get into it and find out.

 

NBA Finals Game 3 Odds

Here are the Raptors-Warriors odds for Game 3:

DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread Money Total
Raptors +4.5 +175  213
Warriors -4.5  -200  213

PointsBet

Spread Money Total
Raptors +4.5  +171 213
Warriors -4.5  -200 213

That’s a short number for Golden State, and it’s also a rarity. Currently, this game would mark only the fourth time this season the Warriors weren’t favored by more than at least five points. It’s also only the fifth time they would be favored by less than six points. Simply put, we just don’t see short lines with the Warriors at Oracle Arena. For what it’s worth, Golden State is 2-1 ATS this season when favored by less than five points at home.

Now, let’s talk a little bit about line movement. This game opened at some books with the Warriors has much as a six-point spread favorite and a -240 moneyline favorite, so things have shifted towards Toronto as we move into Wednesday morning. As of mid-day Tuesday, Golden State was still pulling in more action both in terms of total money and number of bets, but sharp and common bettors began to pound Toronto later in the day. In fact, at one point on Tuesday night, the Warriors were receiving less than 40% of the total action across the entire reporting legal market, which would be the least its gotten this season.

As of Tuesday morning, DraftKings reported about a 60-40 split in favor of the Warriors on both moneyline and spread, prior to the line moving down to 4.5.

In case you’re wondering, that actually bodes well for the Warriors. They are 7-2 ATS under Steve Kerr when their opponent gets more than 60% of bets placed. Moreover, home teams getting 40% or less of total spread bets are 11-6 ATS dating back to the 2005 NBA Finals, so keep an eye on where the money is flowing ahead of tipoff. 

 

Value

If you’re so inclined, FiveThirtyEight has both Game 3 and the series as a toss-up, with the Raptors having a 49% chance in both. As was the case prior to Game 1, the statistical projections reveal potential value for betting on the Raptors. AT +175, the implied win probability is 36%– this compared to the perhaps 49% actual win probability.

If you like the Raptors, they’re a good bet.

If you trust FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO forecast, which takes into account player projections.

Their ELO forecast sets the line at… exactly 4.5 points.

 

General betting trends

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Rob Manfred Looking for “Balance” When it Comes to the Issue of Extended Safety Netting

Kevin Kinkead - June 5, 2019

Last week a little girl was hit by a foul ball during an Astros/Cubs game, an incident that went viral due to the dismayed reaction of Chicago’s Albert Almora Jr., who needed to be consoled by his manager and teammates.

The scenario sparked national discussion on the extension of protective netting at MLB ballparks, and I was lambasted as a “pussy liberal social justice warrior” for suggesting that we should take measures to prevent little girls from getting hit in the face by 100 MPH baseballs. Traditionalists complained, saying that kids shouldn’t be sitting behind 1st or 3rd base while arguing that fans should simply “pay attention” to the game, as if that alone will prevent you from being clocked when Giancarlo Stanton rips a screamer towards your noggin. They also argued that extended netting would alter sightlines during a baseball game, which I understand, but I think anybody who has ever sat behind home plate or near the dugouts will tell you that it takes about five seconds to get used to it.

So I’ll triple-down on my take:

I don’t think extending the netting down the 1st and 3rd base lines is a pussy liberal opinion. I don’t think adding safety measures to protect children is a pussy liberal opinion. I also don’t think booting kids into the upper deck makes a lot of sense either. Find me a ballpark where everybody is paying attention to 100% of a three-hour or four-hour game and I’ll empty my bank account into yours.

It doesn’t happen, not even in blue collar Philadelphia, where people talk on their phone or to their friends or shove nachos in their face while watching the game, like in this photo, after the jump:

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Jean Segura Was Pulled from a Seattle Game for a Lack of Hustle

Kevin Kinkead - June 5, 2019

Let’s dive into this shit again.

Andrew McCutchen is out for the season with a torn ACL and of course we need to assign blame to somebody. It’s the never-ending quest for accountability, despite the fact that sometimes freak injuries take place in sports.

Is it Jean Segura’s fault? Did he force McCutchen into a rundown for a lack of hustle down the first base line?

Is it Ian Kinsler’s fault? Is he an asshole for letting that ball drop?

Is it McCutchen’s fault for even trying to escape a no-win situation?

Is it Gabe Kapler’s fault? We can probably just blame the manager for everything.

Regardless, you hear the calls on social media and on sports radio to “bench Segura” or “teach him a lesson,” and a reader actually pointed out to me that the short stop was punished last year for something similar, which is referenced in a MLB.com article by Greg Johns:

SEATTLE — Mariners shortstop Jean Segura was taken out of the Mariners’ 12-6 win over the Rangers on Friday in the third inning, with manager Scott Servais saying the All-Star infielder was benched for not running hard on a play at the plate in Seattle’s seven-run second.

“Jean is fine,” Servais said. “We’re going to play hard through the end of the year, and I don’t think Jean gave a really good effort trying to score from second and he came out of the game.”

Was Segura’s removal a message?

“Yes,” Servais said.

Will he play on Saturday?

“We’ll see,” Servais said.

This is the play in question, which, unfortunately, doesn’t give us the best angle of Segura’s start from second base, but you can be the judge, after the jump:

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Jori Lehtera is Reportedly Taking his Talents to Russia

Kevin Kinkead - June 5, 2019

Jori Lehtera is headed to the KHL to join SKA Saint Petersburg.

This comes to us via the RIA Novosti news agency in Mother Russia.

Crappy Google translation:

Source: Yori Lehterya will move from “Philadelphia” to SKA

MOSCOW, June 5 – RIA News.

Finnish striker of the club Philadelphia NHL Yori Lehter continue his career in the SKA Petersburg, told RIA Novosti source familiar with the situation.

Last season, the 31-year-old forward in 27 matches of the regular season NHL scored 1 puck and gave 2 assists.

In 2010-2011, Lehter played in Lokomotiv Yaroslavl, in 2011-2014 he was a player in Novosibirsk Siberia.

Last season Lehtera was caught up in a cocaine ring investigation in his native Finland. I believe the last update we did for Crossing Broad was back in January, when he skipped a non-mandatory court appearance. In March, he was sentenced to four months of probation for possessing cocaine but apparently not selling or trafficking it. Lehtera went on waivers in February, cleared, and played five games for the Phantoms. He posted 11 points in 89 games for the Flyers over two seasons.

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