Did anyone see this coming? Not one, but TWO Toronto wins at Oracle Arena have put the Raptors on the verge of the team’s first NBA Championship. Golden State’s experience, championship pedigree, and a historic home-court advantage didn’t matter. At all. In fact, I guess you could say Oracle Arena turned into the Raptors House:
In what felt like a must-win Game 4, the Warriors came out hot, but Toronto survived the early onslaught and answered back with a dominant 37-21 third quarter to seize control of the game. Amazingly, Toronto outscored the Warriors in seven of the eight quarters played at Oracle Arena last week. Will Kevin Durant return (apparently yes)? Will the Warriors respond and show some championship resolve, or will Toronto deliver the final blow to the Warriors’ dreams of a three-peat? Let’s get after it in our Game 5 betting preview.
Those of you in Pennsylvania, can find out more about how to get in on the action on our PA sports betting page.
Those of you in New Jersey, hit our NJ online sports betting page.
NBA Finals Game 5 odds
Here are the Raptors-Warriors odds for Game 5:
As of Monday morning, the Raptors are between a 1.5 and 2-point favorite at most sportsbooks. That line is considerably shorter than the Toronto -3.5 we saw yesterday afternoon. Why the two-point swing? Kevin Durant practiced with the Warriors on Sunday and he will reportedly return tonight, which, of course, explains the movement. The moneyline also dropped at DraftKings from -155 yesterday afternoon to -121 this morning, while the total jumped from 212.5 to 214.5. At DraftKings, bettors are CRUSHING the Warriors right now– on the moneyline:
Currently, if you want to grab Toronto and lay the points, PointsBet is the place to be where you can get them at -1.5. Interestingly, if you want to take them on the moneyline, you should head to DraftKings where they are actually a larger spread favorite at -2, but a little cheaper on the moneyline at -121.
If you were looking to grab the Raptors in this series, you probably should have done so ahead of Game 4 when they were a relatively modest -130 to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy. If you’re dead set on backing them now, you can grab
the Raptors at -500 with DraftKings and the Warriors at +375, while you can
get Toronto at -556 and Golden State at +400 at PointsBet. As is the case with the Game 5 lines, Durant’s potential return has also caused a significant shakeup in the futures market. Toronto was -710 and Golden State was +500 to win the series at PointsBet on Sunday afternoon.
I can’t in good conscience advise anyone to take the Raptors at -556, but if you believe Golden State has a miracle run coming, then by all means, go get them now. Maybe they can turn the tables after blowing a 3-1 series lead a few seasons ago. Maybe.
FiveThirtyEight projects a Raptors win, giving them a 63% chance of ending this series tonight based on its CARMELO rating and 70% chance based on ELO. Those projections revealed some value for betting on the Raptors
at -155 because that moneyline represents an implied probability of only 60.8%. The updated ELO and CARMELO projections have not yet been adjusted to account for a possible Durant return, but regardless, I again expect to see a gap between the statistical-based probability and the implied moneyline probability caused by a betting public that can’t imagine the Warriors’ dynasty ending in five games. While we’re not talking about crazy value on Toronto like there was in Game 4, it does once again exist.