Picture this:

October’s cool autumn breeze is upon us. The Phillies, somehow, have arrived in the NLDS. Their opponent, who will most certainly be the powerhouse Dodgers, look at the Phillies’ probable pitchers for the series. They see before their eager eyes the following names:

NOLA. ARRIETA (with bone spurs!). VARGAS. SMYLY.

That’s… quite the rotation.

Even with the Phillies right in the thick of the postseason picture as August approaches, the above scenario seems hard to imagine, I know.

And that’s probably why the Phillies’ trade for Jason Vargas yesterday underwhelmed so many of you, while it totally aggravated others.

Still, the way I see it, two things can be true in the wake of this deal, after the jump:

  1. Vargas is an average starter.
  2. Vargas is an upgrade to a rotation that has a 5.02 ERA since June 1. In fact, take out Aaron Nola’s 3.31 ERA over 11 starts since that date, and the rotation’s ERA balloons to 5.66 in 37 starts.

More recently, Phillies starters not named Aaron Nola have produced precisely one quality start since Zach Eflin went 6 IP while allowing three earned runs on June 29. Drew Smyly did it on July 21 in Pittsburgh. Again, that’s one quality start in a span of 16 games pitched by guys other than Nola.

Under that context, should the deal for Vargas, who comes to Philly at little cost with a 4.01 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season, really upset so many people?

It probably shouldn’t, but the building frustrations from fans over the front office’s inability to procure pitching that is both healthy and talented have created an almost automatic response of negativity and skepticism about anything it does.

Basically, it’s dumping on the Phillies simply to dump on the Phillies because the poor track record precedes the logistics of the move. Maybe that’s fair and deserved. In fact, it is. They egregiously erred in their calculations of what their young staff could be, and they deserve ample criticism for that, but they have to do something now.

And they did.

In fact, what if I told you that Jason Vargas is basically having the same season as Dallas Keuchel? You know, the guy so many people in this city have agonized over since he signed with the Braves a couple of months ago. Because he is:

  • Keuchel:  3.86 ERA, 118 ERA +, 1.33 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 7.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
  • Vargas: 4.01 ERA, 103 ERA +, 1.27 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 7.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9

Comparable numbers, yes?

According to MLB Statcast, Vargas is yielding a lower average exit velocity, expected batting average, and expected slugging percentage, as well as notably less hard contact than Keuchel this season.

If there’s one area that Keuchel is definitively the preferable option, it’s that he induces way more groundball contact (58.3%) than Vargas (40.5%), which is preferable at Citizens Bank Park.

I don’t write this to tell you that Vargas is the better player. All things being equal, I’d opt for Keuchel, but the greater point is that this actually *could be* a savvy bargain buy for the Phillies, particularly given just how poor the rotation has performed.

If that’s the only deadline move Matt Klentak has for us, then yeah, I don’t know. Not great. But in isolation, the deal makes some sense, so hold the frustration for at least another day or two.