Not sure there’s a need for a concentrated 1,000 word condemnation of your now third-place Philadelphia Phillies this afternoon. It’s pretty obvious after watching the Braves pummel an overmatched rotation and bullpen to the tune of 21 runs and eight homers over the last two nights that the Phillies just don’t stack up with Atlanta right now. I know it, you know it, and it would seem John Kruk knows it, too:

The numbers support what we all saw with our eyes this week – the Phillies probably aren’t winning this division. At 6.5 games back of the Braves, FanGraphs (2.5%), FiveThirtyEight (7%), and Baseball Prospectus (6.8%) each paint a bleak picture on the division front. Rather than specifically harp on one of the Phillies’ clear deficiencies, of which there are many, I’m just going to riff on a few things here because I’m not even quite sure where to start with this team right now.

About Last Night

After scoring all of four runs over the first 18 innings of the series, the lineup staked starter Zach Eflin with a 4-0 first inning lead last night. Phils hitters used a blend of patient at-bats to piece together six singles, setting the tone early on in what was arguably their most important game to date. Eflin protected that lead for all of five outs, and the Phillies soon found themselves trailing by three runs an inning later. Anybody that knows baseball knows that’s not good, but let me try to quantify how absolutely brutal it is in a different way:

The Phillies had a 79.3% win probability after Cesar Hernandez’s single that made it 4-0. Five outs later, the Braves had a 62.4% chance of winning the game. In a season full of poor starting pitching performances, this one really stands out.


The Starting Pitching Problem

Speaking of starting pitching, much has been said about Matt Klentak’s need to go out and trade for an arm (or three) ahead of the July 31 deadline. What has been said by fans of the team can be best be summarized as something like this:

“They need to get a f****** starter! This rotation f****** sucks!”

An understandable sentiment given the Phillies’ 4.56 ERA is good for 10th best in the National League, and it makes even more sense given it has a 5.29 ERA over the last 30 days. Much has been made, too, of their staff-wide failure to keep the ball in the yard. That problem was painfully illustrated once again last night after the Braves launched five more home runs, two off of Eflin. Phillies starters have now allowed 94 homers this season, 11 more than the next closest team (San Francisco).  Obviously, that’s not good enough, but here’s the question – are the Phillies one starting pitcher away from fixing this mess? Let’s say they replace Vince Velasquez with a deadline acquisition; is that move the difference? Even if it is, as I see it, there are currently two potential roadblocks in the Phillies’ pursuit of a starting pitcher:

  1. Look at the standings right now. There are 21 teams currently within five games of a playoff spot. Certainly, some of those teams have differing outlooks on their playoff chances, and things can and probably will change over the next three-plus weeks, but this doesn’t appear to be a buyer’s market.
  2. Who is the pitcher out there that can make the seismic impact needed? Guys like Tanner Roark and Andrew Cashner can probably be had at reasonable prices, I guess, but are they clear upgrades? And are those guys worth whatever prospect haul, however modest that haul may be, the team would need to ship away? Of course, the Phillies could pay a heftier price for a rental such as Madison Bumgarner, or pursue a multi-year solution such as Detroit’s Matt Boyd, but the price will be astronomical. Boyd, mind you, is in the midst of a career-year in which his current numbers far exceed his career averages, and on this market, the Tigers’ return would be substantial. Maybe the Phillies can get creative, but without including prospects such as Alec Bohm and/or Spencer Howard (which I definitely would not advise), such a deal seems unlikely.

From Start to Finish

If the Phillies do manage to improve their rotation, they will still be handing the ball over to a suspect bullpen that has a 4.90 ERA this season and a 6.52 ERA (the third-worst in baseball) over the last 30 days. The group has surrendered the sixth-most homers of any team (56) and is bottom-five in FIP (5.08), WHIP (1.49) and opponent batting average (.269). Tommy Hunter’s recent return should help, as will David Robertson’s anticipated return later this month, but it’s hard to imagine that improved health alone will bridge the talent gap that exists in their depleted bullpen.

No Offense

Before we wrap this up, let’s switch gears to the lineup, the one that received a significant overhaul this season with numerous high-priced upgrades. The one currently producing the 20th-best slugging percentage (.420), 20th-best average (.244), 19th-best OPS (.744), and for you hardcore folks out there, the 19th best wOBA (.315). For a more digestible measure of their underwhelming performance, they’re also 20th in homers (109), particularly bad when the offensive philosophy seems to predicated upon the big inning and…home runs. Hitting coach John Mallee’s fault? Maybe not, but the disappointing output produced by this offense might be the most perplexing development of the season.

Now What?

I’d like to know what John Middleton is thinking right now. After Middleton stepped up to make the Phillies’ offseason spending spree possible, I’m guessing he probably envisioned a 162-game victory lap leading into an obvious postseason appearance that included nightly sellouts and the type excitement and optimism felt by fans about the 2007-2011 teams. Instead, he woke up this morning with a 45-42 third-place underachiever that is filled with holes, and is also, quite honestly, boring. If nothing else, do fans have a connection with this team? Is this a team they feel drawn to or inspired by? What needs to happen to change this?

It’s obvious that a singular move isn’t going to push this team over the top, or give it a “jolt” that propels a 180-degree turnaround leading deep into the National League playoffs. Pick whatever metaphor you would like – the Phillies are sort of like an inflatable raft with several holes, thus patching only one seems futile. Maybe they’re like a string of Christmas lights; half of the bulbs are out, so what’s the sense in replacing one or two? I don’t know, I’m sure there’s a better way to put it, but you get the idea. I think – and I know this is going to piss some people off – their only move is to ride this thing out, pray for improved play over the next three weeks, maybe make a conservative upgrade or two, and hope it’s enough to slip into the postseason. Unless there exists a culture-changing, franchise-altering, multi-player deal that entirely reshapes the roster (I don’t see it), this is probably all they can do between now and October. If things don’t improve, Middleton and the decision-makers that he employs need to ask themselves why their evaluations have fallen so short and what can be done to address it.