Phillies Will Have to Overcome Some Recent Troubling Trends Tonight
The Phillies have won four straight games, and it’s good vibes all around for a team that many left for dead only six days ago. Suddenly, they are tied for the NL’s second wild card spot and have slowly but surely watched their playoff odds increase in recent days.
The progression, per Fangraphs:
Date | Playoff Odds |
---|---|
8/12 | 5.8% |
8/13 | 8.4% |
8/14 | 10.9% |
8/15 | 15.1% |
8/16 | 17.0% |
8/17 | 18.1% |
Maybe it’s the Charlie Manuel effect, or maybe it’s just ironic timing, but the Phillies offense has woken up since Manuel’s return to the bench.
They scored 4.71 runs per game and hit .245 in 119 games without Manuel as their hitting coach. In three games with Manuel doing whatever magic he does, they have scored 8.67 runs per game and have hit .337.
Granted, that’s a very small sample size, and there’s absolutely no way that they can maintain anything close to those numbers in the long run, but it’s a fun story.
The more immediate concern for the Phillies is keeping their recent hot streak alive tonight, a task that will be no small order given a number of recent troubling trends.
Unlucky Seven
For whatever reason, getting back to seven games over .500 has been an impossible task for this team since they were last there on June 16.
In their previous seven games with the ability to reach seven games over .500 since mid-June, the Phillies are 0-7. They’ve lost those seven games by an average of 3.86 runs per game.
Connect Five?
The seven games over .500 struggle is not the only concern.
The Phillies have yet to win more than four consecutive games at any point this season. They’ve managed to do it on four separate occasions this season but are 0-4 with a chance to extend their winning-streak to five games.
Looking for Consistency
The good news is that Gabe Kapler’s squad has produced 26 runs over its last three games, while scoring at least seven runs in each contest. The problem is that the Phillies have rarely managed this type of offensive consistency this season.
They managed to score at least seven runs in three consecutive games only on one other occasion this season, last doing it back on April 2-5. They also scored 26 runs over that three games stretch, but the bats went cold in the fourth game, which was a 6-2 loss to the Twins. We’ll see if they post their best four-game stretch to date tonight.
For Eflin, it’s Good News/Bad News
There’s reason for both concern and optimism regarding Zach Eflin, who will make his first start since late July after he was bumped from the starting rotation. He endured a brutal six-start stretch in which posted a 10.62 ERA while opponents hit .382 with a 1.145 OPS against him. Obviously, that’s not going to get it done.
To Eflin’s credit, however, he allowed only one run in 5.2 IP (1.59 ERA) while holding opposing hitters to a .158 batting average and .641 OPS in four relief appearances since his demotion, so maybe he has regained his footing.
Betting Angle
As of 11:30 this morning, the Phillies are currently a modest -112 moneyline favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook. That’s a pretty short line against a Padres team that is only 11-20 since the All-Star break and has lost four of its last five games.
Perhaps that has something to do with San Diego starting pitcher Dinelson Lamet. In two starts this month, Lamet has allowed only two earned runs and five hits while striking out 19 batters over 12 innings of work.
Still, the Phillies are 9-4 (+$399) when favored at home between -105 and -116 on the moneyline.
Just something to consider.
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