Bill Streicher - USA Today Sports
Good morning.
Tonight is the Philadelphia 76ers’ 2019-2020 season opener, and it couldn’t come at a better time, because the Eagles are 3-4 and there just isn’t a lot of juice for the Birds right now, is there? It really does feel like the Sixers buzz has crested the local football team, which went down to Dallas on Sunday night and got slapped around without putting up much resistance at all.
This is the most anticipated Sixers season since… jeez, I don’t know. 2001? 1991? 1983? It’s been a while, as Aaron Lewis once sang.
Here are my fearless predictions for the campaign:
They’ll improve by a few wins this season but I think Milwaukee finishes close to the 60 wins they had last year and claims the #1 seed.
The reason the Sixers don’t win the conference is because:
And that’s fine, because there’s no reason to play him more than this. They will do a better job of controlling his minutes and “delivering” him to the postseason as a healthy player in exchange for pushing the limits and trying to claim home court advantage.
For reference, Embiid played 63 games in 2017 and 64 games last year, so 66 would be a career high for him and is still very reasonable. I’m in the camp of folks who would sit him down automatically for every single back-to-back game, and if you do that, you shave 12 games right off the top. That then gives you 4-5 maintenance days that you can use where necessary, be it at the end of the season or on one of the lengthy west coast road trips.
If Ben Simmons didn’t come out shooting threes in the preseason, he won’t do it in the regular season. The only three he took this month came against the Guangzhou Loong Lions and he had to be goaded into it by teammates and fans.
Where Ben takes a step forward is in the free throw shooting department, improving his mark from 56% as a rookie, to 60% as a sophomore player and 70% this year. More confidence at the foul line will make his drives to the basket more efficient on a macro level points-per-possession basis.
I think a lot of people forget how good Tobias was in LA last year, shooting above 40% from three and finding himself listed as an All-Star snub in a number of national writers’ stories.
He will be more assertive this year with Jimmy Butler and JJ Redick no longer in the mix, given the opportunity to run some pick and roll while finding better matchups against opposing small forwards. By the end of the season, Harris will be the team’s best perimeter shooter and a frequent late game option for Brett Brown.
Harris will also do a ton of this, driving on smaller dudes and just finishing over them:
J Rich played a good amount of point guard for Miami last year. He’s smooth with the ball and can do things Ben Simmons can’t, namely space the floor better because of his shooting ability.
As we approach March and April, you’ll see Richardson take on the backup ball handler roll, unless he develops so much off-ball chemistry with Embiid that it becomes hard to unlink their on-court minutes.
I don’t think either guy is going to “win” the backup point guard position. I think Brett Brown will go back and forth between these two depending on what the matchup determines, or depending on what kind of form each is currently in.
Neto I think fits the offense better as a pass-first guy who is willing to facilitate and play within the system. Burke is a dribbler who will take tough shots and do isolation and mid-range things in a hot and cold fashion. Each guy’s defense might determine who gets more minutes.
It’s easy to say that the Sixers can simply rest Joel Embiid and play Al Horford at the five on the second night of each back to back.
But Horford is 33 years old with a lot of NBA mileage on his body, so he needs his rest as well.
That’s why I think Kyle O’Quinn is going to be a bigger part of this than most people think, since the pair of centers in front of him will each need time off throughout the season.
He’s been excellent in the preseason, but when NBA players actually start trying, he won’t be gifted easy swipes and steals.
Thybulle will be one of the first guys off the bench this year, and the rookie will be excellent defensively, but he’ll have good nights and bad nights with his three-point shot and needs to avoid getting himself into foul trouble by not being overzealous with his reaching.
Redick and Butler were a big part of what the Sixers did in late game offensive sets last season. Harris was often a deferential spectator, Simmons is a liability, and Embiid is already tasked with being the defensive anchor.
You’ll see some really sloppy patches this year where the Sixers just look stale offensively and aren’t creating a lot of good shots. They do not get consistent perimeter shooting from their top two stars, and it’s going to fall on Brett to get Harris and Richardson going in the halfcourt as the season inevitably heads towards those harrowing late game possessions that defined the seven-game Toronto series.
Possessions like this one:
16.5 turnovers per game in 2017.
14.9 turnovers per game in 2018.
The Sixers will only turn the ball over 14.1 times per game this season, which will pull them out of the bottom 10 and see the team finish in the 18th or 19th range, which is fine for a squad playing a base motion offense that passes the ball at a top-five frequency.
They are a massive squad and they will block shots, clog the paint, rotate quickly, and get their hands in passing lanes.
They will also create more transition opportunities by forcing more turnovers and improving their number from 12.7 (27th) last season to 14.8 (10th) this year.
They were fourth last year with 47.8 boards per game and 10.9 on the offensive glass.
They will finish second this season with 48.2 rebounds per game, 11.3 on offense, and finish second behind Milwaukee, just beating out Oklahoma City.
Mike Scott will be the leading bench scorer as James Ennis, Matisse Thybulle, and perhaps Furkan Korkmaz have up and down offensive contributions this season. The Sixers may add a backcourt scorer at the trade deadline.
The schedule is very difficult to begin the season. I think we’re looking at 8-5, something like that, as they try to navigate an early west coast road trip to Portland, Denver, Phoenix, and Utah before coming back for two easy wins and then heading out on another three game trip that includes OKC.
How many wins do you see on this list?
They will complain about hand offs and wonder why Embiid “doesn’t have his ass in the paint.”
Happy Wednesday, should be a fun season.
