Colts vs. Broncos Predictions: Odds and Picks as Indy Looks to Stay Hot

Colts vs. Broncos betting odds, picks, predictions
PHOTO CREDIT: BRIAN SPURLOCK-USA TODAY SPORTS

Local bettors at DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana thoroughly enjoyed the Colts’ big 30-23 win over the Texans last week, and many of them will look to run back their bets on the home team today when the Broncos visit Lucas Oil Stadium.

Those bettors will have another option this week, too, with FanDuel Sportsbook joining the Indiana online sports betting scene earlier this week. Where should the money go? Let’s answer that very question with our Colts vs. Broncos betting preview.

It will be a tale of two teams that appear headed in very different directions as we approach the midway point of the regular season schedule. Looking for a third straight win, the Colts enter Week 8 alone atop the AFC South standings and would seem to have a willing opponent in the 2-5 Broncos.

After briefly resurrecting their season with two impressive defensive performances in wins over the Chargers and Titans, Denver was obliterated last Thursday night by the Chiefs, despite MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes exiting the game during the first half. That loss served as a reality check, prompting the Broncos to ship wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco in exchange for draft picks. With an eye on the future, Denver could be poised to trade more aging veterans this week prior to the league’s trade deadline.

Can the Colts coast and cover by taking advantage of a struggling team in transition, or will Denver keep things close and possibly pull an upset? Let’s get into it.

How to Bet on Colts vs. Broncos

If you’re in the state of Indiana and heading to the game, hitting the bar or just hanging out at home, you can get in on the action with DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana, where you’ll get a $200 bet match and up to a $500 deposit bonus when you register here .

FanDuel Sportsbook is now also live in Indiana and offering a $500 risk-free first bet.

Colts vs. Broncos Odds

Here are the current Colts-Broncos betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 10:00 a.m. Sunday morning:

DraftKings Sportsbook 

      Spread     Money        Total
Broncos     +5.5 (-110)   +210   O 42 (-106)
Colts     -5.5 (-110)   -245   U 42 (-114)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Broncos     +4.5 (-110)   +200   O 42.5 (+100)
Colts     -4.5 (-110)   -235   U 42.5 (-120)

Colts vs. Broncos Betting Promos at DraftKings and FanDuel

Indiana online sportsbooks are offering up plenty of NFL Week 8 betting promos, so let’s take a look at some of the top deals.

As usual, DraftKingsNFL Parlay Insurance is an enticing option. Play a five 5+ leg parlay, and if you hit on all but one leg of your bet, DraftKings will refund you up to $25 on your miss.

DraftKings is also running a special called Offensive Defense which will give those who lose a pregame moneyline bet up to a $25 refund if their team scores 24+ points but still goes on to lose. This promo would have bailed out those on Indy in the Colts’ 30-24 Week 1 overtime loss to the Chargers and in Week 4 when they fell by a 31-24 margin to the Raiders.

Finally, DraftKings is running a Sports Spectacular promo today. With all four major sports in action, users can place a $10+ bet on each of the four different major sports and receive a $10 free bet.

Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, they’re offering NFL Close Loss Insurance. Get up to a $50 refund on moneyline bets if your team loses by six points or less.

fanduel sportsbook

21+ and present in NJ, PA or IN. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Prop Bets

As for this specific game, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering several alternate point spreads, along with game, player, and team prop bets. Some to consider:

Marlon Mack to score and Colts to win (+145)

I like the Colts to win today, and I like Mack to finally find the end zone. He hasn’t scored since Week 3, but Mack is getting nearly 20 carries per game and has been productive (4.3 yards per carry) with the ball in his hands. If you want to try your hand at a bigger payout, taking a shot on Mack to score the game’s first touchdown in a Colts’ win pays +800 and Mack to score two-plus times pays +500.

Courtland Sutton to Have More Receiving Yards than T.Y. Hilton (-125)

Sutton is coming off a six-catch performance in which he gained 87 yards last week against the Chiefs. He’s averaging about eight targets per game so far this season, and with Emmanuel Sanders now out of the picture, he should become the Broncos’ clear-cut No. 1 receiver.  Meanwhile, Hilton has only eclipsed the 75-yard mark once this season and will be up against a stingy Denver pass defense that is allowing only 195.3 passing yards per game.

How to Watch Colts vs. Broncos

  • Date: Sunday, October 27
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
  • Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
  • Network: CBS
  • Announcers: Ian Eagle (play-by-play), Dan Fouts (color analyst), Evan Washburn (sideline)
  • Radio:WFN 107.5FM/1070 The Fan (Indy), KOA Newsradio 850 AM and 94.1 FM (Denver)
  • Where to Bet: DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana, FanDuel Sportsbook Indiana

 

Colts vs. Broncos Weather

You can play matchups, historical trends, and follow your gut all you want, but placing a bet on an outdoor game without checking the weather report is just irresponsible, so let’s do that right now.

Yes, Lucas Oil Stadium is a dome, but it does have a retractable roof that will be open today, per Colts’ owner Jim Irsay:

Given this information, as you would expect, the weather conditions in Indianapolis this afternoon will be pleasant with temperatures in the upper 50s at kickoff under mostly sunny skies. Conditions are expected to remain similar throughout the game.

Colts vs. Broncos Betting Trends

Why Backing the Colts Makes Sense

There’s a ton of trend data to consider of ahead of this one and quite a bit of it backs the Colts. Consider the following information:

  • The Colts have won eight of their last nine home games and are 2-1 ATS at home as a favorite of 5.5 points or more under Frank Reich.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in 9 of their last 10 games played on Sundays against Denver.
  • Home favorites of 5.5 to 6.5 points that are on a two-game winning streak are 20-13 ATS in conference games.
  • When 65-80% of the money is on one team and their odds improve by at least one point from open to close, those teams are 39-17-1 ATS. Currently, 78% of the money is on Indy and their odds have improved by one point since open.
  • Road underdogs of 5 to 7 points that are coming off a loss of 20+ points are only 26-44 ATS.

Why Backing the Broncos Makes Sense

When teams score between 0 and 9 points the previous week and only 15-30% of spread bets are on that team the following week, those teams are 145-94-3 ATS. Since 2017, teams are 13-6 ATS in this spot. Basically, the idea here is that you’re fading the public play on a team coming off a bad loss because the public tends to overreact to the results of the previous week.

Some Trends on the Total

DraftKings Sportsbook has the Colts-Broncos total set at 42. Two points to consider:

  • The under has hit in 13 of the Broncos’ last 14 games played as underdogs.
  • The under is 37-29-2 ATS when the road team has gone under in three straight games and the home team is coming off a game in which they went over.

Taking that information into account, my lean is on the under here.

Where’s the Action Going?

As of early Sunday morning, 78% of spread bets and 79% of the spread handle is on Indy. Meanwhile, 66% of totals bets are on the under with a whopping 96% of the totals money is on the same side. 

Colts vs. Broncos Prediction

I like everything about the Colts. They’re well-coached, they are at home, and they are playing a team that just traded one of its few productive offensive weapons. How motivated is Denver going to be in this game? That being said, with the spread sitting at 4.5 to 5.5 points, I gotta say, that seems a bit short, no?

Going by a strict line read, this sort of feels like a Denver line.

I would feel much, much better rolling the Colts into a parlay as a moneyline bet. As for the spread, it takes a little bit of a stomach, but I’ll go against the public play and grab the points with Denver.

Prediction: Broncos +5.5 over Colts 

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