The Colts will try to bounce back after a brutal 26-24 loss on the road at Pittsburgh last week that was sealed by a shanked 43-yard field goal off the foot of kicker Adam Vinatieri–one that likely cost local bettors at Indiana online sports betting sites a few dollars.
Luckily for the Colts, it would seem that they have the right opponent coming to town in the (1-8) Miami Dolphins this week. With a win, Indianapolis can move back into a tie with the Texans atop of the AFC South standings, but they’ll have to get it done with backup quarterback Brian Hoyer, who will make the start for the injured Jacoby Brissett. Will Hoyer get the job done–and will he lead his team to a cover? Let’s get into it with our Colts vs. Dolphins betting predictions and preview.
The Dolphins are bad, but are they actually that bad? Not even the most optimistic outlook will put the Dolphins’ win total above three games at this point, but they’ve actually played a more competitive brand of football following their Week 5 bye. They fell by one point to Washington, had the 6-2 Bills on the ropes, jumped out to a big lead over Pittsburgh before falling, and then won outright over the Jets a week ago.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (1,195 yards, 8 TD, 7 INT) has brought some life to a talent-depleted team that has brought a spirited effort in recent weeks under first-year head coach Brian Flores. Will the Dolphins give another quality effort today as a 10.5-point road underdog in Indianapolis? Let’s find out.
How to Bet on Colts vs. Dolphins
If you’re in the state of Indiana and heading to the game, hitting the bar or just hanging out at home, you can get in today’s action with DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana, where you’ll get a $200 bet match and up to a $500 deposit bonus when you register here .
FanDuel Sportsbook is now also live in Indiana and offering a $500 risk-free first bet.
Colts vs. Dolphins Odds
Here are the current Colts-Dolphins betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 8:00 a.m. Sunday morning:
|Dolphins||+10.5 (-110)||+420||O 43.5 (-110)|
|Colts||-10.5 (-110)||-500||U 43.5 (-110)|
|Dolphins||+10.5 (-115)||+400||O 43.5 (+100)|
|Colts||-10.5 (-105)||-500||U 43.5 (-120)|
How to Watch Colts vs. Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, November 10
- Time: 4:05 p.m. EST
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
- Network: CBS
- Announcers: Greg Gumbel (play-by-play) Trent Green (color analyst) Melanie Collins (sideline)
- Radio: WFN 107.5FM/1070 The Fan (Indy), KISS 99.9 FM (Miami)
- Where to Bet: DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana, FanDuel Sportsbook Indiana
Colts vs. Dolphins Weather
Conditions in Indianapolis will be fine this afternoon (mostly cloudy, temps in the mid 50s) before frigid temps and precipitation make its way to town beginning Monday, but the Colts aren’t taking any chances. Weather won’t play a factor with Lucas Oil Stadium all closed up on Sunday:
Roof/Window closed tomorrow pic.twitter.com/F5aJcM5jlP
— Jim Irsay (@JimIrsay) November 9, 2019
Colts vs. Dolphins Injury Report
The Colts have several injury concerns ahead of this one:
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 8, 2019
Not only will starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett miss the game, so will wide receivers T.Y. Hilton and Paris Campbell. Veteran cornerback Pierre Desir is also doubtful and is not expected to play.
It appears Miami center Daniel Kilgore could return to the lineup after missing three weeks with a knee injury. Meanwhile, safety Reshad Jones and corner Ken Webster have both been ruled out.
Betting on Colts vs. Dolphins at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook
As usual, DraftKings‘ NFL Parlay Insurance is an enticing option. Play a five 5+ leg parlay, and if you hit on all but one leg of your bet, DraftKings will refund you up to $25 on your miss.
DraftKings’s Offensive Defense promo gives those who lose a pregame moneyline bet up to a $25 refund if their team scores 24+ points but still goes on to lose. It’s worth noting that this promo would have bailed out those on Indy in the Colts’ 30-24 Week 1 overtime loss to the Chargers, in Week 4 when they fell by a 31-24 margin to the Raiders, and in last week’s 26-24 loss to the Steelers.
Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, they’re offering NFL Close Loss Insurance. Get up to a $50 refund on moneyline bets if your team loses by six points or less.
Prop Bets We Like
As for this specific game, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering several alternate point spreads, along with game, player, and team prop bets. Some to consider:
Marlon Mack to Score (-106)
Maybe this is a square play, but it makes too much sense. The Colts are down their starting quarterback and two wide receivers, Mack is a stud, and he’s going up against a Dolphins defense that has allowed an NFL-worst 1,074 rushing yards this season. Mack, somehow, has only scored three touchdowns to this point, but his overall efficiency (4.3 yards per carry), volume (19.9 carries per game), and the Colts’ injury situation combine to make this a sensible play. If you’re looking to get frisky and score a bigger payout, then you can take a stab on Mack to score 2+ TDs at +475.
Zach Pascal to Score and Colts to Win (+140)
Brian Hoyer is a capable backup. He completed 65% of his passes last week for 168 yards and three touchdowns. Reich’s propensity to run the football is well documented, and the Colts should be able to run all day against this defense. Still, someone has to catch the football when Hoyer throws it and Zach Pascal, who has eclipsed 70 yards receiving in two of his last three outings, seems like an obvious candidate. Pascal caught five of his six targets last week against the Steelers for 76 yards and a score, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be a primary target of Hoyer’s once again this week.
Colts vs. Dolphins Betting Trends
Why Backing the Colts Makes Sense
The Colts are 5-3 ATS following a loss under Frank Reich, including four straight covers in this situation.
We also see big home favorites coming off close losses frequently cover:
- Home teams favored between 10-13 points are 12-6 ATS following a loss when playing a team coming off a win and 7-3 ATS when favored between 10-11 points.
- Teams playing at home coming off a loss by four points or less and are favored between 10-11 points are 12-6-1 ATS and 10-6-1 ATS in games lost by three points or less. They’re 8-4 ATS in this situation after the month of October.
Lights Out at Home
The Colts have won 9 of their last 10 games at home, though they are only 5-4-1 ATS in those games.
Why Backing the Dolphins Makes Sense
That’s a lot of Points
Not only are the Colts a double-digit favorite at home with their backup quarterback against a team that has been chippy in recent weeks, they failed to cover their only game under Reich in which they were a double-digit favorite (a 28-27 win over the Giants last December).
Bad Teams, Big Spreads=Good Combo
Betting on teams with poor records is a profitable play later in the season. Consider the following:
- Underdogs of 8.5 points or more with a winning of .220 or less that were also an underdog in their previous game are 81-46-3 ATS after the month of October (42-21-2 ATS during the month of November). Those teams are 68-29-3 ATS in conference games.
- Teams with a .100-.150 winning percentage are 31-17-4 ATS as a road dog during the month of November and 15-6-2 ATS when a double-digit underdog.
- Teams with a .100-.150 winning percentage are 32-21-3 ATS when an underdog of at least 10 points.
Where’s the Action Going?
As of early Sunday morning, only 36% of spread bets back Indy but 68% of the spread handle is on them. Meanwhile, 64% of totals bets are on the over with a whopping 81% of the money on the same side.
Colts vs. Dolphins Prediction
I have to be honest with you, this feels like a game to maybe grab some props, maybe roll into a 5 or 6-leg parlay, but I wouldn’t get too wild here. I liked the Dolphins enough when we recorded our video (embedded above) for this game mid-week because of the overwhelming trends supporting plays on bad teams as big road underdogs, but I have some concerns:
- The Colts are coming off a loss and know they can get back into first-place with a win.
- The Colts remain a monster favorite despite the Hoyer news.
- The Dolphins are a public team this week.
- How motivated will the Dolphins be after earning a win last week?
This one doesn’t quite pass the smell test. While conservative, run-based game plans typically lead to smaller margins, the Colts should have their way on the ground against a porous Miami run defense. Reluctantly, I’ll take the Dolphins with the points, but there are better games out there to bet on this week.
Prediction: Dolphins (+10.5) over Colts