Notre Dame’s 45-14 blowout loss at Michigan last Saturday night–its most lopsided loss since a 41-8 thumping by Miami late in the 2017 season–was a nightmare for the Fighting Irish. It was also a nightmare for bettors who backed them at Indiana online sports betting sites. Now Notre Dame returns to South Bend with its College Football Playoff aspirations dashed to face a resurgent Virginia Tech squad that enters riding a three-game winning streak and is fresh off a bye week. Let’s get into it with our Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech betting predictions.

Granted, Virginia Tech’s recent wins haven’t exactly come against powerhouse opponents (Miami, Rhode Island, North Carolina), but they are wins nonetheless and one this week could vault the Hokies back into the Top 25 poll. If Virginia Tech does pull the upset, it will be their first win over a ranked opponent in more than a calendar year.

More importantly, which of these two teams will cover the 17.5-point spread? That probably depends on just how motivated Notre Dame will be with their championship aspirations dead and their season seemingly destined to end with a bid to the Camping World Bowl (no offense to the fine people associated with the Camping World Bowl). Thus, it‘s fair to wonder exactly how fired up they’re going to be to deliver a rout of the Hokies on Saturday afternoon.

We’ll try to answer that very question in just a bit, but before we do, let’s take a look at the best odds, promos, and betting trends with our complete Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech betting preview.

How to Bet on Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech



If you’re in the state of Indiana, it all starts with DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana, which is our preferred choice with its first-bet match offer of up to $200. FanDuel Sportsbook IN is now also live and offering a generous $500 risk-free first bet.




New Jersey



How to Watch Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech

Date: Saturday, November 2

Time: 2:30 p.m. EST

Location: Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, IN)

Network: NBC

Announcers: Mike Tirico (play-by-play), Doug Flutie (analyst), Chris Simms (analyst), Kathryn Tappen (sideline)


Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech Weather

It’s always a good idea to check the game conditions before locking in a play, and the conditions could play a factor on Saturday afternoon.

Late morning snow showers (!) are possible in South Bend with temperatures in the upper 30s and a 35% chance of precipitation. There remains a similar chance of showers throughout the game with temperatures struggling to crack 40 degrees. West winds of 14 mph are also expected, creating frigid and potentially raw conditions that could impact both teams’ passing and kicking games.


Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech Odds

Here are the current Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech betting odds as of 9:00 a.m. Saturday morning:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Virginia Tech      +17.5 (-110)   +540   O 59 (-110)
Notre Dame     -17.5 (-110)   -835   U 59 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Virginia Tech       +17.5    +570   O 58.5 (-110)
Notre Dame       -17.5   -825   U 58.5 (-110)


Win Probability

With Notre Dame a huge betting favorite over Virginia Tech, let’s look at this one from a different angle by using ESPN’s FPI model.

We write this every week, but it’s worth repeating–such projection models aren’t always accurate predictors of an event’s outcome, but we feel it’s often worth a look at comparing the implied probability of the moneyline odds with a second source in order to find out if some betting value exists. If a pronounced disparity between the two numbers does exist, there could be an opportunity to exploit a certain betting angle.

As for this game, ESPN’s FPI index gives Notre Dame an overwhelming 93.1% win probability.

In relation to the Fighting Irish’s FPI win probability, the -835 moneyline odds (89.3% implied win probability) at DraftKings means that despite such a hefty price, there’s actually some value on the favorite here.

As for Virginia Tech, there’s no value whatsoever on the Hokies at +540 moneyline odds (15.6% implied win probability) when stacked against the FPI projection.


Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech Injury Report

For Notre Dame, running back Tony Jones is a game-time decision with what the team is describing as an upper-body injury. He missed almost an entire half last week at Michigan. If he doesn’t play against Virginia Tech, it will be a big loss:

Jones has amassed 571 yards on 88 carries (6.5 ypc) and four rushing touchdowns this season. He’s also caught eight passes for 45 yards.

As for Virginia Tech, quarterback Hendon Hooker, who suffered a knee injury in the Hokies’ six-overtime win over North Carolina two weeks ago, will be ready to go:

Ryan Willis began the year under center for Virginia Tech, but struggled and was replaced ahead of the Hokies’ 42-35 win over Miami in early-October. Hooker, who is a perfect 3-0 as a starting quarterback, has completed 57.4% of his passes for 580 yards and seven touchdowns with no picks this season. He’s also added 160 yards and a score on the ground.


Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech: Five Things to Know

  1. Notre Dame hasn’t lost back-to-back games since late in the 2016 season (USC and Virginia Tech).
  2. Notre Dame has a 15-game winning streak at home.
  3. This is only the third all-time meeting between these two teams. Virginia Tech got the best of the first matchup back in 2016 in a 34-31 road win, but Notre Dame evened things up with a 45-23 rout of the Hokies last season.
  4. Virginia Tech hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since last September when they knocked off No. 22 Duke.
  5. Virginia Tech is 27-1 when leading at halftime under head coach Justin Fuente.


Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech Betting Trends

Note: All trends date back to the start of the 2005 season, unless otherwise noted.

Why Backing Notre Dame is a Good Bet

There is a rather short list of trends supporting a play on the Fighting Irish this week:

  • Notre Dame is 8-2 in its last 10 head-to-head matchups against ACC opponents.
  • Notre Dame is 10-3 ATS after failing to cover in its previous two games under Brian Kelly.

The ACC trend doesn’t do much for me, but I do find it relevant that Kelly’s teams have historically avoided prolonged stretches without covering. Notre Dame, of course, has failed to cover in each of its last two games (USC, Michigan).

Why Backing Virginia Tech is a Good Bet

No Good in November

Notre Dame is only 2-9 ATS as a home favorite in the month of November under Kelly.

The Hangover Effect

Notre Dame has struggled to cover following double-digit losses. The Fighting Irish are only 2-4 ATS after losing by 10+ points and 1-3 ATS at home after losing by 10+ points.

Granted, those trends are born from small sample sizes, but they don’t even begin to scratch the surface of what Notre Dame is up against this week.

Teams that have been bumped from the top nine spots of the AP poll after a big loss have been absolutely terrible against the spread in their following game. Check this out:

Home favorites that were ranked Nos. 1-9 and lost by at least 20 points are 20-43-3 ATS the following week.

ACC Issues

Notre Dame is only 5-8 ATS as a home favorite against ACC opponents and 3-6 ATS against ACC teams when favored by 10+ points.

Good Dogs

Virginia Tech is 4-2 ATS overall as a road underdog under head coach Justin Fuente and 2-1 as a double-digit underdog, including an outright as a 14-point underdog last month over Miami.

Road underdogs of 17-20 points are 11-6-1 ATS when on a three-game winning streak.


A Word on the Total

The weather is a concern in this one and the under has been typically strong when Notre Dame is at home in recent years:

The under is 41-26 in Notre Dame games in home games coached by Kelly and it’s 17-11 in games that close with a total of at least 56 points.


Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech Prediction

It’s time to make a Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech prediction.

Virginia Tech and Notre Dame sport identical 5-2 records, and both are storied programs, so at first glance a 17.5-point spread seems a bit ridiculous. But a closer look reveals a five-pack of wins against substandard to mediocre opponents for Virginia Tech, while Notre Dame has a quality win over Virginia and put up spirited effort against No. 7 Georgia.

With that being said, I know that many are expecting Notre Dame to rebound after such a flat-out wretched performance a week ago, but history suggests otherwise, at least in terms of covering the spread. Teams ranked from No. 1 to No. 9 that get bounced from the top spots of the rankings after blowout losses simply have a difficult time getting back up the following week.

Notre Dame has demonstrated an ability to blow out inferior opponents at home this season, but that was also back when it had legitimate championships aspirations. With those dreams now gone, I question their motivation coming into this game, and I think an upstart Virginia Tech squad can hang around enough to cover this sizable spread.

Prediction: Virginia Tech (+17.5) over Notre Dame