The term “outlier” pops up frequently when you go through the first Eagles/Seahawks game from a few weeks back.

Philly turned the ball over five times that day, which is an outlier. It was their absolute worst performance in protecting the football this season.

DK Metcalf dropped a touchdown and another pass. That, too, is an outlier. He’s been really good as a rookie.

Carson Wentz played his worst game of the year, losing two fumbles and throwing two interceptions, which is another outlier. He’s had issues hanging on to the ball down the stretch, but only lost two of his eight fumbles in the five games that were played after the Seattle loss. He’s thrown only one pick since.

That said, here are some things worth considering from that first game, plus a couple of general notes, as we approach Sunday’s playoff game:

The Seahawks are really banged up

They have very little in the rushing department right now.

In the Philly win, Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson combined for 155 yards on 22 carries, a 7.04 YPC number. Both of those guys are now on injured reserve with Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch handling ball carrying duties. Homer is a rookie 6th rounder and Lynch was signed out of retirement a few weeks ago.

Former Bird Mychal Kendricks was also placed on IR this week after tearing his ACL in the San Francisco game. Kendricks was having a great year and finished the Eagles game with a team-high 13 tackles, including one for loss. Top tight-end Will Dissly is out of the picture while Quandre Diggs nurses a bum ankle. They’ve had a rough time this year.

George Clooney also did not play in the first game and his status is up in the air for this one, so we’ll see if the Birds face him for the first time this season:

Russell Wilson

He’s never lost to the Eagles, 4-0 in his career with seven touchdowns and one interception. He’s run the ball for more than 100 yards in those games, which averages to about 30 yards per.

Even without a bona fide running game he’s still playing reasonably well, throwing for five touchdowns and zero picks during the final three games against San Fran, Arizona, and Carolina. His talent is a little lacking at the skill positions, but he does what does, which is extend plays with his feet, allow guys to get open, and turn nothing into something. He was inexplicably off in the first Eagles game and completed just 13 of 25 passes while turning the ball over a couple of times, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening again.

“We gave ’em the frickin game”

Classic quote from Jim Mora, which is what Seattle attempted to do in November.

Not sure if you remember how sloppy both teams were, which is easy to overlook when you consider how bad the Birds performed, but the Seahawks compiled this list of mistakes in week 12:

  • Russell Wilson totally missing a dude wide open in the end zone
  • DK Metcalf dropping a touchdown pass
  • Metcalf not being able to haul in that deep look down the right sideline
  • Seattle fumbling in the 4th quarter on a routine hand off

It probably should have been worse than 17-9. Metcalf’s dropped TD would have made it 17-3 right before halftime and perhaps led to a rout:

https://twitter.com/ParkerLewisJR/status/1199362925623832577?s=20

The Wilson play took place about six minutes prior, a pass that would have put Seattle up 14-3:

Both of those plays were significant in helping the Birds stick around. The fumbled hand off exchange then took place in the fourth quarter, about 9:45 remaining on the clock. The Eagles started the ensuing possession at the Seattle 31 and went eight yards before turning it over on downs after failing to convert a 4th and 2, the famous J.J. Arcega-Whiteside hash play where he moved at the last minute:

That was the play that resulted in some arguing on Twitter, with Bryce Treggs and Dan Orlovsky getting involved as everybody tried to figure out whether Wentz or JJAW deserved blame for that failed pitch and catch.

Third down rate

One of the best measures of Eagle success in 2019 was third down conversion percentage. They finished fourth in the NFL regular season with a 45.4% number, behind only Kansas City, Dallas, and Baltimore. Seattle, defensively, is only 16th in the league in getting off the field, with a 38.3% third down rate.

That’s probably where this game is won or lost.

In the first matchup, Philly was only 4-12 on third down, which was down at 33% and well below their season average. Seattle only managed to convert 35.7% of their third downs, so they struggled as well. In mostly every win this season, the Eagles formula has been to control the clock via long drives and smart third down plays, which keeps opposing defenses on the field and tires them out.

Other stats

Outside of the turnovers and third down rate, the Eagles did okay otherwise the first time against Seattle. They only lost 18 yards on three sacks, which is right around the season average. Two penalties for 15 yards was a season-low. They ran 71 total plays and finished only about 10 total yards behind Seattle. They just need to protect the ball and they’ll be fine this time around.

Some of those key, non-third down stats from the first time:

  • won time of possession, 31:53 minutes to 28:07 minutes
  • -3 turnover margin
  • lost 18 yards on 3 sacks
  • 1-2 success rate in the red zone
  • 2 penalties for 15 yards

There was just a lot of shooting yourself in the foot from both teams. One of the Eagle turnovers came on the play where JJAW, in the continuance of a pre-snap motion, ran into Andre Dillard, who was filling in at right tackle:

Two rookies involved in a mis-timed play there which resulted in a fumble. It was that kind of day.

Doug’s play calling

The head coach hadn’t exactly figured it out at this point. He had yet to simplify the offense and start dialing up screens and swing passes while working in the practice squad guys who are now playing significant roles on this squad.

The Eagles finished with a 49/19 called pass/run split in the first game, and you probably remember this confusing play that resulted in a fumble and big Seattle return:

That was described as a “new play” by Wentz after the game, and it didn’t come off. I’m not sure why they ran it behind two backup linemen (this was the game Brandon Brooks missed with anxiety).

So I think the overarching theme here is that the first game was just an exhibition in sloppiness, with both teams trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Philly was all over the place. Seattle was off. It was not an instant classic.

Both squads are really banged up right now, but the Eagles have home field advantage and are not the same team they were in week 12. I think Russell Wilson is going to be a huge pain in the ass to contain, but the Birds’ defense should do much better against a depleted run game and I think they win this one 24-21 or 21-20, something really close and really nerve-wracking.