You’re not gonna win many games when you shoot 6-33 from three point range.

The Sixers mustered an 18.2% mark from deep en route to a 41.6% shooting night and six-point road loss, their second in Indiana in a little more than two weeks. For the second straight game, they started well enough offensively then really struggled to “score the basketball” in the third and fourth quarters, like a bad movie you’ve seen before (the 2019 Cats remake, perhaps). Compounding that was a four-point second half effort from Ben Simmons, who poured in 20 in the first half.

They did everything else well enough in this game. They turned the ball over only 13 times, grabbed 12 offensive boards, and ripped off six steals. They shot more field goals than Indy but should have done more at the foul line and gotten there with more frequency. The effort on the road was fine and the defense played a part in the Pacers having a poor shooting night overall.

What they really needed was an All-Star night from somebody else, and they didn’t get it. They didn’t get it from Josh Richardson, who shot 1-8 from three. They didn’t get it from Al Horford, who shot 0-3 from three and 5-11 overall. They didn’t get it from Tobias Harris, who scored 15 points on 16 shots. As a team, they went 18 of 50 on uncontested looks, which is 36%.

Sure, the onus is on Ben Simmons to lead this team in Joel Embiid’s absence, but other people gotta step up and start hitting some shots, too.

Video evidence

Let’s look at some video of the shots.

I’ll clip the final 10 field goals they took during the game. No foul or turnover possessions, just shots:

Here’s what they came up with:

  • Mattise Thybulle catch and shoot three – miss
  • Josh Richardson pick and roll drive – make
  • Richardson iso, step back elbow jumper – make
  • Richardson pick and roll, elbow jumper – make
  • Ben Simmons short floater in traffic – miss
  • Richardson late clock contested three-pointer – make
  • Thybulle catch and shoot three – miss
  • Richardson turn around 10-footer – miss
  • Tobias Harris three-pointer off ATO play – blocked
  • Richardson deep three down four points – miss

They went 0-4 down the stretch, really technically 0-3 counting the block, which came on a designed lob into a flare screen for Harris coming out of the timeout. The Sixers could have really used one of those Thybulle threes to go in, and while Richardson was the go-to guy after those three-straight baskets, that turnaround 10-footer could have been a better shot after the offensive rebound and clock reset.

Notice, however, that Simmons only took one of the shots down the stretch. And they only shot two free throws in the game’s final five minutes, a pair of makes coming from Richardson around the 3:30 mark. No issue with the Sixers giving him the ball, since he hit a nice patch earlier, but it’s always concerning when the highly paid guys aren’t really involved down the stretch.

 

Three pointers at home and on the road

I wrote about this yesterday, the idea of shooting more three-pointers or shooting less three pointers. How much is too much? We need to get Goldilocks in here to take the proper temperature.

For starters, the Sixers win more games when they shoot fewer threes. Consider:

  • they have a 7-5 record when shooting 33 or more threes.
  • they have a 10-3 record when shooting 26 or fewer threes.

Correlation? Coincidence? Let’s look at the middle numbers for the Sixers, the wins and losses they put up when shooting in the median 29-32 three pointers per game range (far right in the yellow block) –

There’s not much of a takeaway there. They’re 5-6 when right around their season average in threes. What really stands out is that they can’t shoot threes on the road. Most of those losses in the graphic are road games, and most of the wins are home games.

To that point, here are their home/road shooting splits:

33.5% three point shooting on the road. Everything else checks out. 45.7% from the floor is good enough to win you road games, it’s just that they can’t hit the broad side of barn from deep.

The evidence points to the Sixers being better when they shoot less than 30 three-pointers per game, but percentage-wise they’re still a top-half three-point shooting team. And at the risk of burying the lede, it’s worth mentioning again that they only hit 18 of those 50 uncontested shots last night, which is just 36%. They really are a wonky three-point shooting squad.

Here’s the team shot chart from the loss:

They need to get down into the corners more often. They shoot 44% from the left corner and 37% from the right corner this season, didn’t get down there enough last night, and then had a bad shooting night on the few occasions they did get there. That’s James Ennis, Furkan Korkmaz, Mike Scott, and Matisse Thybulle territory, and need those guys to hunt corners since only two of the starters are capable of doing it.

Other notes:

  • 1-6 shooting night from Mike Scott, who has had a poor season. His three-point number is down almost seven percentage points this year.
  • Simmons played forty minutes last night. Trey Burke only got four minutes off the bench and Raul Neto was called into action again, playing three.
  • Thybulle has struggled to hit anything since coming back from injury. He’s 2-16 and 1-9 from three in that span.
  • 12 minutes of backup center for Norvel Pelle, while Kyle O’Quinn sat on the bench.
  • No clue what’s going on with James Ennis, who didn’t play last night.

Have a fantastic Tuesday.