Does the Big 12 play defense?

No, not really, though the old trope loses some juice in 2020, simply for the fact that college defenses in all conferences have taken a back seat to high-powered passing games. Just last year we watched LSU, which had been running outdated pro-style offenses for the last decade-plus, hang 46 points on Alabama and 42 points on Clemson.

But nobody should be worried about three of the top four receivers on the draft board, which are Jerry Jeudy (Bama), Henry Ruggs (Bama), and Justin Jefferson (LSU). Those guys all put up big numbers in the SEC, which is still projected to put around six or seven defensive players into the first round of this week’s draft. Even if college offenses are improving across the board, we’d all agree that the SEC continues to play some of the best defense in the country.

My concern is with Lamb, a possible Eagles target who will be off the board by 21 unless they trade up to get him.

I’m a little wary when it comes to Lamb, but not because of him, specifically. He’s an elite athlete who put up more than 2,400 yards and caught 25 touchdown passes over the last two seasons. He’s 6″2 and 191 pounds, a really versatile receiver who is absolutely monstrous after the catch. His highlight reel is really a joy to watch, and I also had the fortune of watching him play in person this year, when he went for 71 yards on three catches in a 52-14 obliteration of a hapless, rebuilding WVU team.

The concern is specifically with the Big 12, where defense remains exponentially more optional than in the SEC and other leagues. If you go through total defense rankings across FBS, Oklahoma was the best Big 12 team, ranked 25th overall and allowing 330 yards a game. The next Big 12 team on the list is 40th-ranked Baylor, which conceded 357 yards a game in 2019. Nationally, Big 12 teams allowed a ton of yards and points.

Of course that stat doesn’t mean much when considering that these teams are gashing each other weekly. You have to break it out to non-conference matchups for a better understanding.

Some bullet points regarding the Big 12 in 2019:

  • Oklahoma gave up 63 points to LSU
  • Baylor only scored 14 against Georgia
  • Missouri beat WVU 38-7
  • Kansas lost to Coastal Carolina, 12 to 7
  • Texas gave up 45 at home to LSU
  • TCU lost to SMU
  • the league went 1-5 in bowl season

It wasn’t a fantastic year for the conference. There were some decent power-five wins in week three, but the Big 12 ultimately had a poor December and January. Texas is not the same, Baylor didn’t play anybody out of conference, TCU is down, and Iowa State seemed to hit a ceiling.

The good thing about Lamb, and something that Eagles fans should really focus on, is that he performed better in bigger games. Over the course of 2018 and 2019, he put up the following stat lines in these matchups:

  • 2019 playoff semifinal vs. LSU – 4 receptions for 119 yards
  • 2019 Big 12 championship game vs Baylor – 8 receptions for 173 yards
  • 2019 vs. #11 Texas (neutral site) – 10 receptions for 171 yards and three touchdowns
  • 2018 playoff semifinal vs. Alabama – 8 receptions for 109 yards and a touchdown
  • 2018 Big 12 championship game vs Texas – 6 receptions for 167 yards and a touchdown
  • 2018 at #13 WVU – 5 receptions for 53 yards
  • 2018 vs. #19 Texas (neutral site) – 6 receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown

That’s probably the best evidence we have in terms of making our Big 12 concerns go away. He had his best games against the best competition, while most of his clunkers came against bad teams, oddly enough.

It’s hard to really truly describe Big 12 defenses without a 10,000 word deep dive, but it’s a weird league in terms of  talent and scheme. Every so often you’ll stumble upon a Malcom Brown, but there really is not a lot of NFL-quality talent at defensive tackle, defensive end, or linebacker. You’ll see a lot of three-man and hybrid fronts with defensive backs sitting in soft zone and doing their best to keep receivers in front of them, while quarterbacks sit in the pocket for three, four, and five seconds sometimes. It really is a thankless job being a Big 12 d-back, and it kills your draft stock.

Oftentimes recruiting is offensively-focused, while defensive players are not prioritized, or the teams simply grab “athletes” and try to turn them into corners and safeties. There isn’t a lot of elite line play on the defensive side of the ball and I’ve seen way too many three-man rushes while an undersized spur safety tries to delay a blitz or come off the end in a feeble attempt to reach the quarterback.

Some of that was put in perspective when an anonymous NFL executive told Tom Pelissero this, when asked about QB Jalen Hurts:

“The Oklahoma stuff is kind of skewed because it’s a fucking high school 7-on-7 tournament every game they play,” another AFC exec said. “He’s a bright kid. He’s cerebral. He doesn’t process things and see things real quick and get rid of the ball. He kind of has to see it to believe it. And then his arm is good, it’s not special. I don’t think he’s a super-instinctive player.”

To that exec’s point, you go through first round of the draft in recent years, these are the Big 12 defensive players selected:

  • 2019 – L.J. Collier, DE (TCU)
  • 2018 – none
  • 2017 – none
  • 2016 – Karl Joseph, S, (WVU)
  • 2015 – Malcolm Brown, DT, (Texas)

That’s it. The Big 12 has had three defensive players selected in the first round dating back to 2015. Compare that to what the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC are doing year-in and year-out, and it’s pretty ugly.

That’s one of my Lamb concerns. He wasn’t going up against guys like Denzel Ward or Jaire Alexander or CJ Henderson on a regular basis, or at least not as frequently as Ruggs, Jeudy, and Jefferson were facing that type of talent. The fact that Lamb played well in the non-conference bodes well for his NFL prospects, but honestly, Oklahoma was head and shoulders above everybody in the Big 12 talent-wise, even Texas.

If you want to see some horrific defense that was disguised as an “exciting, instant classic” shootout, watch this nonsense at some point:

Terrible angles, no rush, bad reads, etc. It’s pretty wretched (and also hurts personally).

The other thing about the Big 12 is that the track record of pro receivers is a little iffy. Here’s the list of those guys taken in the first or second round of the draft dating back five years now:

  • 2019 – Marquise Brown (Oklahoma)
  • 2018 – James Washington (Oklahoma State)
  • 2017 – none
  • 2016 – Corey Coleman (Baylor), Sterling Shepard (Oklahoma)
  • 2015 – Kevin White (WVU)

Brown had a really good first year with the Ravens. Washington was better with the Steelers this year. Coleman and White were busts and/or injured, while Shepard plays for a shitty team and has dropped off a bit. You’ve got other guys like Allen Lazard, Tavon Austin, and Josh Doctson who were Big 12 studs and aren’t doing too much in the NFL. Huge number producers like David Sills sometimes aren’t even drafted. Ryan Broyles ended up in the XFL.

I’ve been watching Big 12 football for ten years, so admittedly I’m probably more down on the conference than most people. Perhaps I’m jaded and broken after watching games that that end 59-56 or 70-63 or whatever other trash I’ve witnessed in the last decade. For that reason, I’m a little leery of drafting any player from the conference.

Still, I think CeeDee Lamb’s track record of non-conference and big game performance speaks for itself, and that’s why I’d be 100% comfortable with the Eagles trading up to select him. If I was Howie Roseman, though, I’d feel a little more sure of myself after drafting Jeudy or Ruggs.