Let’s say the Eagles don’t trade up and don’t trade down, but stand pat at #21.

Is Justin Jefferson the pick?

Possibly, but the main question mark has to do with position and fit, which sounds a bit strange since we’d all agree that the Eagles need a lot of help at receiver. The question is whether they need a slot guy or outside guy more.

It’s hard to say, and it might depend on how you rate Greg Ward. If the NFL season began today, he’d be playing in the slot with the surgically-repaired Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson joining J.J. Arcega-Whiteside in the X and Z positions.

Is it a stretch to say that Ward might be the surest bet in that four-man group? Perhaps not. He’s 24 years old with a positive injury history and did some great things at the end of last season, finishing with 28 catches for 258 yards and a touchdown over the course of six games. It’s not a big sample size, but he showed admirably when the Birds’ receiving corps was absolutely obliterated by injuries.

If the Eagles sit still and draft at #21 overall, then CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, and Henry Ruggs are likely off the board. Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, Jalen Reagor, Denzel Mims, and Laviska Shenault would likely be available in the late first round and/or midway through the second, so they could skip over Jefferson and go for one of those guys instead.

We ask the question of redundancy because Jefferson is coming into the NFL as a slot receiver.

Here’s a key bit of information from Pro Football Focus:

Justin Jefferson ran 575 of his 583 total routes from the slot a season ago with LSU. His production was second to none, as he led the nation with 109 slot receptions and 1,518 slot receiving yards.

Averaging an impressive 2.64 yards per slot route run — 12th in the class — Jefferson also displayed his toughness with a second-ranked 24 missed tackles forced from the slot and a national-best 37 explosive plays of 15 or more yards from the inside.

He ended the 2019 campaign with a career-high PFF receiving grade of 86.7 in 2019, 14th among the 130 draft-eligible FBS receivers who saw at least 50 targets. He also recorded a contested-catch rate of 92.3% that ranked first among the 98 draft-eligible pass-catchers who saw at least 10 contested targets.

If you want a good example of what he did this season, this is a coaches film clip showing all of his targets in the national title game against Clemson:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDELeDWXZok

Jefferson did, however, play on the outside at LSU.

In 2018, he caught 54 passes for 875 yards and six touchdowns while operating primarily at the X and Z, the breakdown here courtesy of USA Today:

For Jefferson, it is his sophomore season, when he spent 553 of his 697 snaps playing on the outside, and just 133 of his snaps in the slot.

Jefferson did have a couple of clunkers in 2018, but the argument a lot of people make when talking about his flexibility comes in the form of game logs against some of the toughest teams in the country. Two years ago, he put up the following stats against the following ranked teams:

  • vs. #8 Miami – 5 receptions for 81 yards
  • at #7 Auburn – 5 receptions for 97 yards
  • at #22 Florida – 3 receptions for 52 yards
  • vs. #2 Georgia – 6 receptions for 108 yards
  • vs. #22 MSU – 3 receptions for 18 yards
  • vs. #1 Alabama – 6 receptions for 81 yards
  • vs. #22 TAMU – 5 receptions for 63 yards and a touchdown
  • vs. #8 UCF (bowl game) – 4 receptions for 87 yards and two touchdowns

If you wanted to turn that into a neatly-wrapped statistic, you would say this:

In 2018, while playing predominantly on the outside, Justin Jefferson had 37 catches for 587 yards and three touchdowns in eight games against ranked opponents. 

That’s good stuff, about 73 yards on 4.6 receptions per game. And it was a different LSU offense back then, with Joe Burrow only attempting 379 passes compared to the 507 he threw this year. They ran the ball 215 times this season with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and 240 times with Nick Brossette in 2018. Joe Brady came over from the Saints in 2019, revamped LSU’s passing attack, and won the Broyles Award as the best assistant in college football. That earned him a gig as Matt Rhule’s offensive coordinator in Carolina.

As it pertains to the Eagles, we’re really just asking these questions:

  • Does the front office see Greg Ward as a starting-caliber slot receiver?
  • Do they view Jefferson as a professional slot guy, or outside guy?
  • Is outside receiver the biggest priority right now?
  • Is it realistic for Jefferson to play multiple spots in the NFL?

It’s difficult to know what the front office is thinking. Drafting Jefferson gives you an elite slot receiver but then Ward is left by the wayside again. You could play Jefferson on the outside and let Ward play inside, but are you maximizing the talent at your disposal?

Thing is, the Eagles haven’t had consistent production from the slot since 2017, when Nelson Agholor tore it up in that position. I know everybody likes to crap all over Nelly for his drops in 2018 and 2019, but the honest truth is that he was really good when he didn’t have to move around the formation to make up for the injury absences of Mike Wallace and DeSean Jackson. It shouldn’t come as any surprise that Agholor had his best NFL year when Torrey Smith remained healthy for 16 games, plus the playoffs, which left the other skill players in their preferred spots and allowed to continuity and familiarity.

I’ll leave you with a 2018 Jefferson clip for comparison. He only had three catches in this game, but it shows you good examples of route running, plus how he was deployed, in a different setup: