You’ve seen the prognostications from around the hockey world. Now it’s time for the only one that matters here at Crossing Broad – mine.

Here is a caveat – in my long history of making NHL playoff predictions I have been either been scary good or embarrassingly bad. There is no middle ground.

And also know I’m not poring over countless pages of stats. I’m not doing deep dives into zone entries, or breakouts or forecheck successes or high-danger chances, or any of that stuff.

That’s all good conversation (for some) for when hockey isn’t actually being played. But when the games are on the ice, I’m a believer in believing what you see, and not what you have to tabulate.

As such, these predictions are predicated on what I’ve been watching these past two weeks and nothing more, nothing less.

I have a few degenerate acquaintances who rely on me for their hockey gambling fix, and they keep coming back to me (and have for years) so, I guess I’m making them a little bit of money at least. Who knows.

Anyway, that’s the extent of the warning for what you are about to read. Anything you do from this point forward is on you, not me.

 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 Philadelphia Flyers vs. No. 12 Montreal Canadiens

The Habs are a cute story. Here’s a team that had no business even being in the playoff conversation this year, who benefited from the pandemic pause, were given a sliver of a chance against the mighty Pittsburgh Penguins and then put the Eastern Conference on its ear.

The Canadiens have veteran, all-star goalie Carey Price and an underrated defense anchored by almost-Flyer Shea Weber, along with supporting members you likely don’t know (unless you are a hockey geek) in Jeff Petry and Ben Chiarot.

Aside from that though, there’s not a lot there. The offense is lacking. There’s a few names you might recognize – like Brendan Gallagher and Max Domi – but they’re playing depth roles on this team. The Canadiens are well-coached by Claude Julien, who led the Bruins to a Cup in 2011, so they play a smart, systemic, defensive game, but Julien was juggling his lineup even in an elimination series like the matchup with the Pens, so you know he’s not completely confident in what bullets he has in his chamber.

As for the Flyers, we’ve written about them ad nauseam at this point. You know about their depth. You know about their buy in to Alain Vigneault’s system and style. You know that Carter Hart is Carey Price 2.0 and is as unflappable as his goaltending idol, who will be at the other end of the rink.

Neither team’s power play is clicking right now, but that’s more of a problem for Montreal. That’s because the Flyers are a superior team at 5-on-5, so while special teams is always important, you can survive some struggles if you dominate 5-on-5 play. The Flyers will do that and that’s what will be the difference in this series.

I’ll give Price one game that he can steal. But that’s it.

Flyers in 5

 

No. 2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. No. 9 Columbus Blue Jackets

This series is really intriguing. There’s so much in the way of story lines here. Will Tampa exact revenge for the embarrassing sweep they suffered at the hands of the Blue Jackets last year, within days of setting records in the NHL for regular season dominance? Or will the Blue Jackets sting the Lightning again?

Will Tampa’s two best players – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman – play, or are their injuries substantial enough to keep them out for this series, and is Tampa deep enough of a team to overcome those losses?

Will Columbus coach, and Jack Adams Award finalist John Tortorella, continue to play a masterful game of chess with his team, devise the right strategies for slaying offensive giants, like they did in the first round, shutting out the high-powered offense of the Toronto Maple Leafs twice?

Will Joonas Korpisalo have a similar hot streak in net that he had earlier in the season? How does a team built on speed and skill match up against one built on playing hard and heavy?

Honestly, this is the most intriguing matchup in the entire first round. Tampa would have been my pick to reach the Cup Final (and still might be) but uncertainty about Stamkos and Hedman is giving me pause. Without the knowledge of their injuries at the time of this writing, I admit I am waffling just a bit.

As such, I’ll make a pick, but I’ll do it with a hedge (the only one of my picks that will be this way, I promise).

Lightning in 7 (but avoid this pick if Stamkos and Hedman are out, because that could sway the series to the Jackets)

 

No. 3 Washington Capitals vs. No. 7 New York Islanders

There’s great intrigue here too in the sense that New York coach Barry Trotz gets a chance to coach against the team he took to the Cup two years ago and that he had to leave because the Caps nickel and dime’d him after wining when it came to a new contract.

He now coaches a less-talented Islanders team in the same manner he did the Caps. These Islanders remind me a lot of Trotz’s old Nashville Predator teams who were never an easy out in the playoffs.

The Islanders stifle you. Their defense-first system keeps them in almost every game, and when you look up at the scoreboard, you are wondering how the heck the game is so close.

Adding J.P. Pageau at the deadline was a huge boost for the Isles as he has legit two-way ability and is an all situations player.

The Caps are still the Caps. Alex Ovechkin is still the most dangerous goal scorer in the NHL, John Carlson is a Norris Trophy favorite and a supporting cast of characters that is quite similar to the team that won the whole thing two summers ago is still in place.

It’s easy to forget about the Caps with all the excitement around the Flyers and the seasons the Lightning and Boston Bruins were having before the pause. They are a good team.

But I don’t like this matchup for them a little bit.

There won’t be many upsets in this round of the playoffs, but this is one that I like – a lot. If the Islanders play the way Trotz wants them to play, they’ll pull off this stunner. I think it’s going to happen.

Islanders in 6

 

No. 4 Boston Bruins vs. No. 6 Carolina Hurricanes

The Bruins looked terrible in the round robin portion of the restart. The Hurricanes looked dominant in a sweep of the New York Rangers.

So, it’s clear to me why so many people like this as a potential first round upset.

After all, the Hurricanes made a surprise run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season only to lose to these Bruins, so there is a level of exacting revenge at play for Rod Brind’Amour’s squad.

The ‘Canes are getting Dougie Hamilton back, which is a huge boost for their blue line and teen sensation Andrei Svechnikov looks like he graduated to the next level already.

Carolina is deep, talented and well-coached, but I just can’t get behind them with Peter Mrazek as their goalie. Even if they swap him out for James Reimer, I’m not seeing it.

Boston has to realize that they can’t just lollygag their way through a couple weeks of disinterested hockey and then suddenly turn on the light switch against a young, hungry Carolina team.

That said, if any team knows how to play in a long hockey series, and to deal with the pressures of them, and to find their way in the time necessary to survive and advance, it’s these Bruins.

Just look at what they’ve been through in the past decade when it comes to the postseason. There’s been a lot of drama. A lot of roller coaster series. A lot of times where they just had to hang on or make a remarkable comeback.

There’s something to be said for being battle-tested. And the Bruins are. That’s what gets them through to the next round.

Bruins in 7

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. No. 12 Chicago Blackhawks

Admittedly, it was a lot of fun watching the Blackhawks stun the Edmonton Oilers in the qualifying round. I watched every one of those games, and it’s always enjoyable to watch players who have been through these playoff wars raise their game to the level it needs to be at to win.

Whether it was Jonathan Toews leading the way, or Patrick Kane, or Duncan Keith, or Brandon Saad, or even Corey Crawford making one ridiculous save after another, that series against the Oilers was the most satisfying of the opening round.

This will be something completely different though.

Vegas is good. Damn good. Stanley Cup championship caliber good.

The best game of the entire first part of this restart was the Vegas-Colorado tilt. The combination of speed, skill and depth on those two teams will make for an incredible Western Conference Final.

As such, I don’t think Chicago has enough talent to skate with Vegas. And while I’m curious as to what happens in goal for the Knights, as it seems like Robin Lehner might be getting the nod over Marc-Andre Fleury, and see how that impacts the team, I don’t think these teams are close at all. There are three lopsided series in the first round in my mind. I already mentioned the Flyers-Canadiens. The third one is coming up next. But, this is one you should feel really confident in locking in as a win for the favorite.

Golden Knights in 5

 

No. 2 Colorado Avalanche vs. No. 11 Arizona Coyotes

The Coyotes deserve a lot of credit. They have been through the wringer out in the desert amidst a lot of extraneous conflicts outside of their control. This was exacerbated by their general manager John Chayka abruptly stepping down just before the restart.

No one gave them a chance against Nashville. Yet Rick Tocchet, another former Flyer thriving as an NHL coach, kept his team focused and determined, and they stunned the Predators to advance to the Conference Quarterfinals.

And while goalie Darcy Kuemper was lights out against Nashville, I don’t see how he can be nearly as good against the Avalanche.

Colorado may be the best team in the NHL. They have a superstar that doesn’t get enough publicity in my mind in Nathan McKinnon. Gabriel Landeskog is a tremendous leader and player. Cale Makar is the most exciting young defenseman in the game. Mikko Rantanen is a points machine. And this team is chock-full of depth and lines that come at you in waves. Their secondary players are better than a lot of teams second lines. Matt Calvert. Valeri Nichushkin. Joonas Donskoi. Andre Burakovsky. Hell, they are loaded.

And while Arizona boasts a more veteran roster than you might otherwise think (Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Phil Kessel, Taylor Hall, Derek Stepan, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Michael Grabner), the talent gap here is immense.

I always like Philipp Grubauer as a goalie. He was the backup in Washington to Braden Holtby when they won the Cup, and he’s now going to be given time to shine.

Oh, and while I often am a fan of experienced coaches who know how to play the strategy games and the motivational games necessary to win, I do think Jared Bednar is the best “next generation” coach (He’s not exactly young at 48) in the NHL. Bar none.

Be ready for a long run with this team.

Avalanche in 5

 

No. 3 Dallas Stars vs. No. 8 Calgary Flames

I really don’t know what to make of this series. I thought both of these teams were going to be better than they were in the regular season. And I thought both looked just OK in the opening round.

Calgary was able to beat Winnipeg (who was without two of their best players for the series) and Dallas looked disinterested, even up until their shootout win over the Blues to earn the No. 3 seed in the round robin.

Dallas has more talent, the better goalie (Ben Bishop) and are a superior defensive team, but they don’t score enough for my liking.

Miro Heiskenen is a star in the making on the blue line (and to think the Flyers drafted Nolan Patrick ahead of both him and Makar. Yikes!) and Tyler Seguin and Jaime Benn are top-end talents, but Dallas goes into offensive funks that are frustrating.

Meanwhile I don’t love Calgary’s defensive game and I’m not buying the Cam Talbot experience from the first round against the Jets in goal. Yeah, he was really good, but the Jets were undermanned.

Calgary has a more balanced offensive attack than Dallas, and they have played a lot better under Geoff Ward since he replaced shamed coach Bill Peters.

While I don’t think Calgary will go far in this tournament, I think they are the Canadian team that makes it the farthest.

It’s two teams I don’t feel great about and I have to pick one, so I’m going with the upset. Hopefully it’ll be an entertaining series.

Flames in seven

 

No. 4 St. Louis Blues vs. No. 6 Vancouver Canucks

This is the most interesting Western Conference series for sure.

The defending Cup Champion Blues looked like anything but in the round robin portion of the qualifying round. And maybe they looked at it more as an exhibition – at least that was the vibe they were letting off – and are now ready to show why they are the defending champs and had the best record in the West in the regular season.

Meanwhile, Vancouver is the team that is the closest to being ready to win a Cup in Canada. they have a young, fun, skilled group in the Pacific Northwest and they are going to be dangerous for seasons to come.

Their top line is full of youth and talent with Elias Pettersson, Brock Boesser and Bo Horvat. And Quinn Hughes is on par with Makar, Heiskanen and Ivan Provorov among the next wave of All-Star caliber defensemen.

But I don’t buy into the rest of this team or goalie Jacob Markstom being able to stop the battle-tested Blues.

Craig Berube has already proven to be an excellent coach and he’ll get his team corrected in time to take this series.

The Blues know how to win. They will find the secret sauce that they had a season ago for this round at least.

It’ll be the same names you remember from last year too – Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko, David Perron, Ryan O’Reilly, Jaden Schwartz, Colton Parayko, Jordan Binnington… they’ve got this one. They’re not ready to give up the title just yet.

One more time, they’ll be playing Gloria.

Blues in 6

 

As for my picks for later on:

Eastern Conference Finals: Lightning over Flyers (however if Hedman/Stamkos are out long-term, I’ll take the Flyers over Bruins)

Western Conference Finals: Avalanche over Golden Knights

Stanley Cup Final: Avalanche over Lightning/Flyers

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