It is extremely difficult to win a baseball game when a lineup generates just a single run.

It is virtually impossible to win a baseball game when such an output is paired with a defensive effort mirroring that of an early-season high school scrimmage.

The above is not a revelation, but this not-so-out-on-a-limb hypothesis was proven true on Sunday afternoon in the Phillies’ miserable 14-1 loss to the Mets.

A classic pitchers’ duel between Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola was spoiled by a Phillies’ defense that helped the Mets to four early runs (three of which were unearned) that should have never crossed the plate.

In general terms, there should be no need to panic following a pair of losses on the heels of an outstanding 10-1 stretch, particularly given one of those losses came to a pitcher who is, arguably, the game’s best. The Phillies’ current playoffs odds, if you’re into this sort of thing, also offer hope. Per FanGraphs, the team has an 87.2% chance of the reaching the postseason.

However, some of the good vibes from the Phillies’ recent run have dissipated in the wake of sloppy play and mounting injuries. After a garbage time slaughtering of the Phillies’ bullpen, Joe Girardi’s team once again holds a negative run-differential (-3) this season.

It does not help matters that a daunting 17-day stretch featuring a preposterous 21 games awaits.

As for Sunday, a trio of blunders caused irreversible damage, including this tone-setting Adam Haseley misplay on what should have been an inning-ending flyout in the first:

Haseley took responsibility for the gaffe.

“Obviously, a bad initial read. I should have opened up the other way, but I was trying to spin around at the end,” he said.

“At the end, it kind of got in the sun, so it was just an all-around just a bad situation. In retrospect, I should have just opened up the other way, got to it, blocked the sun and just caught it.”

The Phillies’ defensive issues would not end there.

Following a leadoff double by Dominic Smith in the fourth, Nola fielded a grounder off the bat of Robinson Cano and quickly turned to find Smith wandering too far from second base. Caught in a rundown, Smith advanced to third when Didi Gregorius gave a high feed – one that should have been handled – to Alec Bohm. Cano also advanced into scoring position following the error.

After the game, Girardi discussed the ill-fated play and noted beyond the obvious that Nola, too, could have done more.

“It’s unfortunate. He had the rundown, we botched the rundown, and he’s got to get that guy going back to second, so that doesn’t happen,” he said.

I’m not entirely sure that Nola had the same assessment. Here’s what he had to say about the play:

Nola quickly rebounded with a pair of key strikeouts, almost emerging unscathed, but with two outs, Andres Gimenez delivered a two-run single to break things open.

In the bottom of the fifth, the Mets added another run on this error by Rhys Hoskins:

The Phillies entered the day 24th in baseball in defensive runs saved and 16th in fielding percentage, per FanGraphs. Those rankings won’t improve following this latest effort.

Girardi noted the inconsistency of his team’s defense:

I think we could play better. I think that when we make mistakes, it seems to be all in the same game,” he said. “The games that we pitch well, we’re usually pretty clean. And when I look at defense, I look at ‘do we make the plays that we should make?’ Sometimes, there could be a physical thing that keeps a guy from making a play. He’s not as fast as maybe another guy, or something like that. At times, our defense has been really good, but there have been those games, like today, that it has really let us down.

That’s not to excuse Nola’s hand in the loss. Despite his 10 strikeouts performance, he yielded six extra-base hits, including two homers. By the time Jeff McNeil took Nola out to right field in the sixth inning, the game’s outcome was practically determined.

The outcome felt final because deGrom, who had been the winning pitcher in just 13 of his 39 starts since the beginning of 2019 despite outrageous numbers, was simply outstanding.

He yielded just one run and three hits over seven innings of work while racking up 12 strikeouts. He completely overpowered the Phillies, and I mean overpowered.

Check out his velocity breakdown, per MLB Statcast:

  • 4-seam fastball: 98.6 mph (avg), 96.5 mph (min), 100.8 mph (max)
  • Slider: 92 mph (avg), 88.3 mph (min), 94 mph (max)
  • Changeup: 91.2 mph (avg), 89.3 mph (min), 93.5 mph (max)

In fact, deGrom didn’t throw a pitch that registered below 90 mph until the seventh inning.

To further illustrate his brilliance on Sunday, Phillies hitters whiffed on 35 of 66 (53%) total swings.

A look at the breakdown by pitch type:

 

“He’s got three swing-and-miss pitches,” Girardi said after the game. “When you have that, you’re going to have big strikeout numbers, and it’s really tough on your hitters. When you’re throwing 99 (mph), and you’re throwing a hard slider like that and a changeup that’s got a lot of depth, it makes it really, really difficult.”

And Then There’s The Bullpen

Following two weeks of improved performance, the Phillies’ bullpen managed to improve upon its dead-last ERA.

Entering Sunday, the group was 29th in baseball with a 6.57 ERA, just ahead of the Rockies’ league-worst 6.89 ERA.

Granted, the game’s outcome had been determined by the time it relieved Nola in the sixth, but a group that would have had to turn in a real clunker to raise its ERA by nearly half of a run somehow managed to do just that.

Heath Hembree, Mauricio Llovera, and Blake Parker combined to surrender eight earned runs in just 2 2/3 IP.

Hembree, who Girardi would like to utilize in meaningful situations, is specifically of concern. The sixth-inning homer he allowed to Brandon Nimmo was his fifth allowed in just 5 IP with the Phillies.

Overall, the bullpen now holds a 7.04 ERA.