Flyers vs. Penguins Betting Pick (March 4, 2021)

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Photo Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

On Thursday night, the Philadelphia Flyers will take on the Pittsburgh Penguins for the second of three games the teams will play against one another in Pittsburgh this week. The Flyers (11-5-3) are level on points with the Penguins (12-8-1) at 25 points with two games in hand. Pittsburgh skated away with a 5-2 win over their cross-state rivals on Tuesday. Can Philadelphia rebound?

Let’s get into our Flyers-Penguins betting pick with player prop predictions, odds and analysis for this March 4, 2021 matchup.

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Flyers vs. Penguins Betting Pick (March 4, 2021)

The three-part Battle of the Keystone State got off to a wild start on Tuesday night. Despite the first two matchups between these teams going in Philadelphia’s favor by a combined score of 11-5, Pittsburgh flipped the script in their first opportunity hosting their cross-state rivals. Captain Sidney Crosby entered the NHL’s COVID Protocol the morning of the game, which led to the cancellation of Pittsburgh’s morning skate. None of that mattered, as Pittsburgh won Tuesday night’s contest 5-2, matching the number of goals they’d scored in the two prior matchups this season.

Pittsburgh improved to 5-2-0 over their last seven games and drew level with Philadelphia in the standings, though it’s worth noting that the Flyers have played two fewer games.

The Flyers had been playing confident hockey entering Tuesday night’s game, having won three straight games and the knowledge that their kryptonite Sidney Crosby wouldn’t be in the lineup for the Pens. After scoring the game’s first goal, they proceeded to concede three goals in the second period and another two in the third to seal their fate. Defensive breakdowns were the name of the game as Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov struggled mightily for the first time together this season, with an errant Ghost pass across ice in the offensive zone hitting the stick of Kasperi Kapanen on the tape, going the other way for the first Pittsburgh goal. Philadelphia will need a better effort from their top defensive pairing in this game if they are to have any shot of bouncing back.

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Flyers vs. Penguins Odds

Here’s the line for the Flyers and Penguins at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:

  • Spread: Flyers -1.5 (+205), Penguins +1.5 (-250)
  • Moneyline: Flyers -122, Penguins +106
  • Over/Under: O 6.5 +102, U 6.5 -124
[sb-standard teams=”Philadelphia Flyers” books=”DraftKings”]


Bets We Like With a Flyers Win

Money Puck gives the Flyers just a 55.4% chance of winning this game. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is a slightly lower 53%.

Flyers Win and Under 6.5 Goals (+210, BetMGM)

Philadelphia’s loss to the Penguins on Tuesday night was just their second regulation loss to a team that wasn’t the Boston Bruins this season. Carter Hart has had some issues with consistency this issue and the team’s defensive structure fell apart in second period.

Head coach Alain Vigneault has opted to start Brian Elliott in net for Thursday’s matchup. Elliott has been a calming presence for the Flyers, posting a 5-1-0 record with two shutouts, allowing just 2.03 goals against and posting an impressive .931 save percentage. Although he hasn’t played against the Pens this season, there’s reason to believe he’ll perform well in this one, especially since he’s coming off a 23-save shutout.

Parlaying the Flyers moneyline with under 6.5 goals has its risk. After all, the teams have combined for at least seven goals in all three meetings between the teams this season. That said, there’s reason to believe the Flyers will play a more defensively sound game, as it’s unlikely the play of Ivan Provorov and Shayne Gostisbehere will drop to the level of Tuesday night, plus Pittsburgh’s ability to score without Sidney Crosby is going to hurt more nights than not.

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Bets We Like With a Penguins Win

Penguins to Win and Over 4.5 Goals (+140, BetMGM)

To be clear, we’re taking the Flyers to win this game and under 6.5 goals, but we don’t believe it’s going to be a 2-1 contest, either. While this game feels like a must-win for the Flyers, there’s always a chance that history will repeat itself again on Thursday night.

Brian Elliott has played well this season, especially when it appears Alain Vigneault’s club needs a decisive victory. However, Elliott struggled a bit against Pittsburgh a season ago, going 1-1-1 with a 3.74 GAA and .851 save percentage. It’s a new season and it’s possible that Elliott will hold up better, but Pittsburgh’s prior success against Elliott could be enough to put the Flyers away again tonight.

Get 5x your money at FOX Bet in PA if Flyers score on Sunday against  the Capitals here here. Get the same offer on the Devils against the Capitals next Tuesday in NJ by clicking here.


Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

James van Riemsdyk to Record Over 0.5 Point (-120, BetMGM)

James van Riemsdyk has been arguably the Flyers’ best forward this season, racking up 26 points (10G, 16A) in 18 games, including an assist on Tuesday night. He’s in the midst of a five-game point streak, recording eight points (3G, 5A) over that stretch, including at least one assist in four of those five games.

You can get the general -120 odds on van Riemsdyk to record either an assist or a goal, or you could get even better odds on JVR to record over 0.5 assists (+170) or over 0.5 goals (+220 for a goal at any point). There’s value in the specific markets, but to play it safe, take the over 0.5 points at -120 odds with BetMGM.

Jake Guentzel to Record Over 0.5 Point (-182, DraftKings)

Jake Guentzel has been a near point-per-game player against the Orange & Black, recording 13 points in 14 career games against the Flyers, including an assist on Tuesday night. In fact, Guentzel has recorded at least one assist in two of Pittsburgh’s three games against Flyers. Additionally, he’s finished with at least one point in five of his last six games and eight of his last eleven games overall.

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Any Player to Score 2+ Goals (+110, FOX Bet)

This might seem like an strange bet to get in on given the +110 odds, but keep in mind that at least one player has found the back of the net at least twice in two of the three games played between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia this season:

  • 1/15/21: Travis Konecny (3 goals)
  • 3/2/21: Joel Farabee (2 goals), Kasperi Kapanen (2 goals)

Given the fact that the teams have combined to score at least seven goals in each game against one another, it stands to reason there could be plenty of opportunities for a player to net 2+ goals.


Flyers vs. Penguins Prediction

Pick: This is by no means a legitimate must-win game for the Flyers, but it’ll certainly have that weight. Losing the first two games of what amounts to a three-game road series would be devastating and allow Pittsburgh to move ahead in the standings. We expect the Flyers to play a more sound defensive game to the tune of a 4-2 victory. Take the Flyers to Win and Under 6.5 Goals.


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