Flyers vs. Penguins Betting Pick (March 6, 2021)

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On Saturday afternoon, the Pittsburgh Penguins will play host to the Philadelphia Flyers for the third and final game of their three-games-in-five-days miniseries. The Flyers (12-5-3) are two points ahead of the Penguins (12-9-1) with 27 points to Pittsburgh’s 25. That’s critical, because Philadelphia also has two games in hand on their cross-state rival. The Pens took the first game, while the Orange & Black responded in kind on Thursday night. Who will walk away from this playoff-esque series with two wins?

Let’s get into our Flyers-Penguins betting pick with player prop predictions, odds and analysis for this March 6, 2021 matchup.

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Flyers vs. Penguins Betting Pick (March 6, 2021)

As the Battle of the Keystone State enters its third game in five days, the teams enter play having won one game apiece in regulation. Pittsburgh drew first blood on Tuesday night, taking Philadelphia down 5-2 despite missing captain Sidney Crosby due to his addition to the NHL’s COVID Protocol. Philadelphia’s defense was a mess in that game, practically handing scoring chance after scoring chance to their rivals.

Thursday night’s game saw Sidney Crosby’s reentry into the Pittsburgh lineup after just three days on the COVID Protocol list, while Joel Farabee -who had scored the Flyers’ only two goals on Tuesday night- was placed on the COVID Protocol list. Just like the Pens overcame adversity on Tuesday, the Flyers did the same on Thursday. It wasn’t without its scary moments, however. Just five minutes into the game, Philadelphia had conceded three goals in 1:11 of game action. Head coach Alain Vigneault called a timeout, refocused his group, and the team never looked back scoring four consecutive goals. Captain Claude Giroux was in peak form in his return to the center position, after playing the wing for the majority of his last two seasons. Giroux netted two goals and nearly had a hat trick, but that goal was given to Scott Laughton, whose uniform clipped the puck on its way in. Sometimes you need your best players to rise to the occasion. Giroux did.

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Flyers vs. Penguins Odds

Here’s the line for the Flyers and Penguins at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:

  • Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-275), Penguins -1.5 (+220)
  • Moneyline: Flyers -104, Penguins -113
  • Over/Under: O 6 -117, U 6 -105

 

Bets We Like With a Flyers Win

Money Puck gives the Flyers just a 55.3% chance of winning this game. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is a slightly lower 53%.

Flyers Win and Over 4.5 Goals (+135, BetMGM)

The Flyers are riding high after Thursday night’s win and admitted in the days since that they’ve been treating this three-game set with Pittsburgh as a playoff series of sorts, with the goal of winning at least two of three. They have the opportunity to go four points clear of their cross-state rival with two games in hand if they pull this one out in regulation or three points via overtime or a shootout.

While the over/under has been set by most sportsbooks at 6 goals, we recommend hedging a bit by parlaying the Flyers moneyline with over 4.5 goals at +135 odds at BetMGM. In fairness, each of the last five games between the Flyers and Penguins have seen the teams combine for at least seven goals and it’s entirely possible it will happen again. However, given the stakes of this game, especially for Pittsburgh, the potential for a defensive slog of a game is real.

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Flyers Win and Over 6 Goals (+265, DraftKings)

If you’re more bullish on the Flyers and Pens combining for at least seven goals as they have in the teams’ past five regular season meetings, you can get even better return on your wager by taking the Flyers to win and over 6 goals. The teams have shown no signs of slowing down their scoring against one another, however there’s reason to believe the teams might tighten things up a bit defensively to get the “series” win.

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Bets We Like With a Penguins Win

Penguins to Win and Over 6 Goals (+240, DraftKings)

Although we’d advise taking the Flyers to win, some might opt to take their rivals from western PA. If that’s the case, it could be worth taking a look at +240 odds on the Penguins to win and over 6 goals at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Although Brian Elliott played an excellent game on Thursday night -that whacky 1:11 stretch which included two pucks deflected off his teammates’ gloves notwithstanding- Pittsburgh could find solace in the fact that they scored three goals a couple of nights ago. Plus, they know that Elliott struggled a bit against them a season ago, going 1-1-1 with a 3.74 GAA and .851 save percentage. It’s hard to advise against taking the over, so consider parlaying it with the Pens moneyline if that’s the outcome you want to roll with.

Get 5x your money at FOX Bet in PA if Flyers score on Sunday against  the Capitals here here . Get the same offer on the Devils against the Capitals next Tuesday in NJ by clicking here .

 

Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Sean Couturier to Record Over 0.5 Point (-135, BetMGM)

Reigning Selke Trophy winner Sean Couturier has been exceptional this season since returning from an injury suffered in he second game of the season against the Pens. If we take out that game -when he played just 45 seconds- Couturier has scored 13 points in 9 games, including a point in each game played against the Pens.

Couturier found the back of the net on Thursday night, his third goal in four games overall, and registered an assist on Tuesday night. If you’d rather go the more specific route, BetMGM has Couturier to record over 0.5 assists at +150 odds and over 0.5 goals at +220 odds.

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Jake Guentzel to Record Over 0.5 Point (-182, DraftKings)

We’re rolling with this player prop once again, because it hit on Thursday and there’s historical precedent to indicate it could happen again this afternoon. Jake Guentzel has been a near point-per-game player against the Flyers in his career, recording 14 points in 15 career games against the Orange & Black, including an assist on Tuesday night and another on Thursday night. Guentzel has recorded at least one assist in three of Pittsburgh’s four games against Flyers. Additionally, he’s finished with at least one point in six of his last seven games and nine of his last twelve games overall.

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Flyers vs. Penguins Prediction

Pick: Although the teams have split the two matchups this week, Philadelphia has won three of four on the season and are our pick to win this one. There’s reason to believe the trend of the teams combining for 7+ goals could continue, but we’d recommend hedging instead. Take the Flyers to Win and Over 4.5 Goals with BetMGM. Additionally, get in on the Couturier and Guentzel props.

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