NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Picks: Best Monday Bets

The field has been whittled down from the original 68 to now just eight remaining teams. Oregon State and UCLA are here after each pulling off yet another upset, while top seeds like Michigan, Gonzaga and Baylor took care of business en route to the Elite Eight. Are more upsets in store in this round, or will the heavy favorites take care of business?

Let’s take a look at the Monday NCAA Tournament matchups with our Elite Eight picks and betting predictions.

No. 2 Houston (-8) vs. No. 12 Oregon State

Let’s start by noting that Houston has been one of the nation’s most impressive teams throughout much of this season.

From its elite defense to its dominant rebounding to its 22 double-digit victories, Kelvin Sampson’s experienced group has seemingly been on a mission to reach the Final Four for the first time since the Phi Slama Jama teams of the early 80s. However, winning and covering this one against a red-hot Oregon State team may not be quite the simple path that many assume.

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After being picked to finish dead last in the PAC-12, Oregon State entered its conference tournament at a mediocre 14-12 mark. The Beavers made what seemed to be a miracle run to win the PAC-12 Tournament, knocking off three NCAA Tournament teams to do it. In pulling off the improbable run, they earned the No. 12 seed in the Big Dance.

Still, Oregon State continued to be painted with the also-ran brush, as this matchup will make it 10 straight games as underdogs of at least five points. This despite winning eight of its last nine games.

The Beavers haven’t allowed more than 70 points in regulation in any of their six tournament games, giving up just 64.3 points per game in that span.

Grinding It Out

The ability to shrink these NCAA Tournament games is a major part of what has brought the slow-paced PAC-12 so much success, landing three teams in the Elite Eight. The Beavers specifically should be well-prepared for the type of low-scoring game this promises to be against the nation’s second-ranked scoring defense, as they just got done upending the top-ranked scoring defense in Loyola-Chicago.

Oregon State has quietly morphed from a mediocre 14-12 squad to a Top-35 KenPom offense and a Top-60 KenPom defense. In fact, a closer look shows that eight of their 12 losses were by 10 points or less points and six of those were by less than the number Houston is spotting in this game tonight.

In short, the Beavers have proven they possess the chops to play with anyone and not only keep it close, but find also find ways to win.

This could be a tricky spot for Houston. In the second round when the Cougars had the same one day of rest as they have tonight, they struggled to sneak by a Rutgers group that does a lot of the same things defensively as this Oregon State team.

One has to wonder how the Cougars will fare on short rest again with DeJon Jarreau’s gimpy hip and a possible look ahead to a heavyweight Final Four fight with either Baylor or Arkansas next.

Oregon State has covered 16 of its last 21 games as underdogs, including 15 of 18 this season when getting 5-12 points. The Beavers have also only dropped just two of their eight games ATS this season on one day of rest.

Meanwhile, Houston, a 20-9 ATS team on the season, is just 4-4 ATS this season when laying 5-12 points and 2-2 ATS on one day of rest.

The Cougars enter here after having allowed just 46 points to Syracuse the other night. While that’s great, it’s noteworthy that they were 0-2 ATS this season after allowing less than 50 points in a lined game, which includes one of their three straight up losses, extending a run of six straight in that role.

Houston vs. Oregon State Betting Prediction

We won’t go as far to say to say Oregon State will pull off the outright victory, but we are comfortable grabbing a generous allotment of points.

Pick: Oregon State +8

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No. 1 Baylor (-8) vs. No. 3 Arkansas

Two things became clear after the Round of 16 this weekend. First, Arkansas is prone to extremely poor spells in games that are jeopardizing its chances to win. Second, Baylor has found its early season swagger once again.

Yes, Arkansas will play for a Final Four berth here, but it’s been six straight games at the most crucial point in the season where the Razorbacks have trailed by at least nine points in a game.

The Razorbacks won five of those six games, true, but four of those five wins came against a group including two teams not in the NCAA Tournament, a No. 14 seed, and a No. 15 seed. They have gotten the job done, but what happens when they run into an elite team not prone to relinquishing those big leads?

Baylor certainly fits the bill as one of those elite teams. Had it not been for a three-week stop in action due to COVID-19 back in February, the whole college basketball watching nation would just be waiting for the imminent Gonzaga vs. Baylor title game.

Instead, the Bears had to come out of that absurdly long break and play better than a game every three days for nearly a month straight. Understandably, they struggled to meet their pre-shutdown form where they had won 17 straight to start the season, covering 13 of those 17 games. After the long time away, the Bears returned overvalued by oddsmakers, losing two of their next seven games (their only two losses this season) and failing to cover six of the first eight back.

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Baylor Hitting Its Stride

The Bears finally got a much needed break from game action before the Sweet Sixteen and, sure enough, came out and wore down a suddenly resurgent Villanova team, eventually covering a long number like the one they are laying here. Baylor struggled from three-point range in the Nova game, a reasonable result of six days off, but they should find more rhythm here after just a day away from game action.

Baylor won each of its first 17 games by at least the margin of tonight’s line and that is the portion of the season we think forms the best representation of the team they truly are and the one that can be expected to show up tonight.

The Bears held Villanova to 51 points and Hartford to 55 points in this tournament, making that nine opponents this season held to 60 points or less with the Bears winning each of those nine games by tonight’s spread or better. That type of defensive form against an often sloppy Razorbacks team could blow this game wide open, building Baylor a lead they won’t relinquish like Arkansas’ other recent opponents.

Baylor Should Thrive From Deep

Oral Roberts and Colgate, two high-flying offenses, carved Arkansas up from behind the three-point line. Baylor boasts the nation’s best three-point shooting percentage as part of its third-ranked scoring offense.

Baylor has covered 11 of its 16 games away from home this season and 10 of its 13 as favorites of 3-12 points. The Bears have covered 21 of their last 31 games against opponents with a better than .600 win percentage and a team doesn’t accrue a trend like that without being able to close out opponents after getting a lead.

Baylor vs. Arkansas Betting Prediction

Arkansas plays loose all too often these days and that will be fatal against this elite Baylor squad.

Pick: Baylor -8

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