NCAA Tournament: Second Round Monday Picks to Bet Now

Following another day of wild upsets, the second round of the NCAA Tournament concludes Monday with another slate of what should be equally wild matchups.

As we have seen throughout the early going, betting on this year’s tournament games has been a wild ride. As such, let’s take a closer look at the final set of matchups before the Sweet 16 field is set with some NCAA Tournament second round picks and predictions.

NCAA Tournament Second Round Monday Picks

Following an absolutely loaded weekend of March Madness action, things don’t stop on Monday as another eight teams will punch their tickets for the right to play in the Sweet 16 next weekend.

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You’re either coming off of a successful weekend of picks, or you’re looking to restore order with a bounce back during today’s slate. Either way, let’s take a look and make some Monday second-round picks.

No. 2 Iowa (-5.5) vs. No. 7 Oregon

Iowa was able to shake off some rust while also conserving energy on Saturday against Grand Canyon, never trailing in their comfortable 12-point win. Meanwhile, Oregon enters cold, not having played in 10 days due to VCU’s COVID forfeiture. The long layoff isn’t likely to do the Ducks any favors, as they went just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS this season following a week or more off, allowing 75.3 ppg in those four outings. They allowed just 66.9 ppg in all other outings.

This is the biggest spread Oregon has seen this season, losing both of their other games as dogs of 3+ both SU and ATS (at Colorado and at USC, two teams still in this tournament). They also face the No. 3 scoring team in the country, a tough prospect given that the PAC-12 does not have a single school inside the Top 60 in points per game. Iowa has averaged 98 ppg in their three games this season on one day of rest and could run the legs out of an Oregon team lacking in game speed action.

When the Ducks lose, they usually get beaten badly. Only one of their six losses this season came by less than this spread, losing the other five by at least seven points.

In fact, their four losses away from home came by an average of 10 points per game. Look for the Hawkeyes to move to 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as neutral site favorites with a double digit win here on Monday afternoon, a very early game for the West Coast Ducks.

Iowa vs. Oregon Pick: Iowa -5.5

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No. 1 Michigan (-5) vs. No. 8 LSU

LSU has nine losses this season, and seven of those losses saw its opponents top 80 points. Luckily, for the red-hot Tigers, their opponents here, Michigan, despite a Top 50 ranked scoring offense (76.5 ppg), have only topped 80 points three times in its last 15 games.

One of those three was the Wolverines’ first round win over No. 16 Texas Southern. Before that, they had lost three of their previous five games.

Michigan was a tremendous cover team all season at 17-8 ATS, but they struggled to a 3-3 ATS record in their six games as a favorite of 3-7 points. By contrast, LSU was a strong 4-2 ATS as a dog of 3-7 points, despite being basically a .500 cover team on the season. In other words, the general ATS performance of both clubs doesn’t tell the entire story.

LSU has not dropped a game ATS in any of their last six outings. The Tigers have also been perfect in their last five games against teams with a better than .600 win percentage, while also covering in five of their last six games as underdogs.

They play fast and make their foul shots and could expose the Wolverines, who are bound to miss Isaiah Livers at some point in this tournament. These two teams are very good foils for each other and this one should go right down to the wire.

LSU vs. Michigan Pick: LSU +5

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No. 4 Florida St. (-1.5) vs. No. 5 Colorado

We certainly think Colorado is worth a look as a possible winner with the short spot here, given the Buffaloes strong play down the stretch this season and their ability to shoot the three against a Seminoles team which, stunningly, did not make a shot from deep in their first game.

The Seminoles’ Saturday outing continued a pattern of sloppy basketball for some time now.

However, where we would like to focus our attention in this game is on the total.

Colorado, winners of seven of its last eight (six against NCAA Tourney teams), is brimming with confidence after dropping 96 points in their first-round win. The Buffaloes shot 61% from the field, including 16 of 25 from deep.

The Buffs (54th in the nation) and the ‘Noles (16th) both shoot the three-ball at elite levels, but neither defends the deep ball well, at 128th and 197th, respectively. Both teams are top 100 in field goal percentage and foul shooting, as well, with Colorado coming in as the nation’s best free throw shooting team at 83.4%.

Florida St. played under in just seven of 23 games this season and just four of their 15 as a favorite.

It’s worth noting here that the Seminoles are coming into this matchup off an ATS loss. They have played under the total in just six of their last 27 games after a win and have also cashed the over in 12 of their last 16 games after an ATS loss.

Colorado has played eight of its last 10 over the number on neutral courts and nine of its last 11 on neutral courts as a dog.

Interestingly, the Buffaloes also played 21 of their last 31 games over the total after scoring 90+ in their previous game. Both teams have several proven scorers, the Seminoles entered the Tourney having played just two games under in their previous 14 games.

Contextually, Colorado will likely get to the line a ton, as they have all season. This game feels like an under the radar shootout that could hit 150 with relative ease.

Florida State vs. Colorado Pick: Over 141 points

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No. 3 Kansas (+1) vs. No. 6 USC

When you look at the teams most affected by COVID-19 this season, it’s not a pretty landscape. Drexel had the most stoppages and got blown out in the First Round. Virginia pulled into Indy on Friday before their Saturday game and lost outright to No. 13 seed Ohio.

Now, Kansas, a shorthanded team due to virus protocols, has to play its second tough game in three days with a thin bench and several question marks.

Jayhawks star forward David McCormack was forced into a busy 25 minutes to help his team avoid an upset by Eastern Washington, which had a double digit lead in the second half. Will he hold up for big minutes in what will be a punishing game inside for the Kansas bigs, after having missed so much time? After all, the 6’10” McCormack will have to contend with the huge bodies that USC throws out there, including future lottery pick, Evan Mobley (7’0”) and his brother Isaiah (6’10″).

USC plays in a defensive conference and has seen a ton of close games this season. The Trojans excelled away from home with a 10-5 SU record. With the PAC-12’s scheduling structure, they’re one of the few teams that is comfortable on one day of rest, sporting a 6-3 SU record in that role. The Trojans are actually 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on when both they and an opponent have just one day of rest.

Kansas enters play tonight on a run of 2-5 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games and just one ATS win in their last five games as dogs in the Big Dance. Remember, this is a team that struggles to score and does not shoot the ball well on the season (186th in the nation in field goal percentage). The Jayhawks will have a tough time as they are forced outside looks against one of the nation’s best teams in limiting field goal percentage.

USC, which just held Drake to 56 points, has won six of its last seven games this season after allowing less than 60 in its previous game.

Finally, they Trojans also covered five straight in the NCAA Tournament and eight of their last 10 as a favorite on a neutral court. They should be able to use their extreme size and talent in the paint to wear down an already thin Kansas group.

Kansas vs. USC Pick: USC -1

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