NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Picks: 4 Bets to Lock In Right Now

Much like the Sweet 16 teams, we all got a collective opportunity to breath after a frenetic first few days of the NCAA Tournament. Now, the remaining teams (and we) have a breather to prepare for this weekend’s upcoming showdowns. Will the deeper rounds of the tournament bring about more madness, or will favorites start to make a run?

Let’s break down some of our top NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 best bets with some in-depth betting analysis and ATS predictions.

No. 8 Loyola-Chi. (-6.5) vs. No. 12 Oregon St.

Loyola has suddenly become one of the favorites to win the entire tournament after it dismantled Illinois, the hottest team in the nation not named Gonzaga.

The country’s best defensive team in terms of efficiency rating and scoring defense (55.7 ppg allowed), combined with an offense that shoots over 50% from the field for the season (No. 5 in the nation) has clearly made the Ramblers a tough out. It’s not hard to see why.

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Cameron Krutwig is a big man that many are lauding as Jokic-esque. Braden Norris gives the Ramblers a true point guard threat and a third elite perimeter defender. Those two players allow Keith Clemons and Marquise Kennedy to focus on scoring, creating an experienced core group that does many things well. This Loyola team is, in many experts’ minds, better equipped for a deep run than the Ramblers team that made the Final Four three seasons ago.

Oregon State would be the team to potentially sneak up on the Ramblers, if any team can do it. Still relatively unassuming with as No. 12 seed, the Beavers have run the table starting with the Pac-12 Tournament. The run includes wins NCAA Tournament wins over No. 5 seed Tennessee and No. 4 seed Oklahoma State.

Now, the Beavers find themselves as the possible sandwich for Loyola between No. 1 seed Illinois and perhaps No. 2 seed Houston. However, it’s unfathomable to wager against a team like Loyola which is so fundamentally sound, so elite at limiting offensive rebounds by opponents, and so dominant in closing out games.

In fact, 25 of the Ramblers’ 26 wins came by seven points or more, enough to cover this spread.

Loyola-Chicago vs. Oregon State Betting Prediction

With nearly a week to prepare, a team of this mental caliber, deep experience, and fundamental discipline, Loyola should have every chance to win this one by double digits. If you think Loyola wins, essentially, you may as well play them to cover here. We do, so we will.

Pick: Loyola -6.5

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No. 1 Baylor (-7) vs. No. 5 Villanova

If you have followed the line since it opened for this one, you have now seen it climb to as high as Baylor -7 at many shops, up from the original -5. It is an understandable move.

Villanova has done much to win public bettors back with two emphatic NCAA Tournament wins and covers that have left many forgetting about the loss of Collin Gillespie. However, those two wins over No. 12 seed Winthrop and No. 13 seed North Texas are a far cry from the task the Wildcats have at hand when they face No. 1 seed Baylor.

In fact, this game marks the first time all season that the Wildcats are an underdog, a telling statement about both their schedule and the Big East Conference (sorry, Big East fans).

Baylor was one of the nation’s best teams all season and did not lose a single game until their three-week COVID shutdown in February. After so much time away, the Bears went right into playing nine games in 26 days, a less than optimal situation for a team out of game shape. It’s not hard to understand why they have gone just 3-6 ATS and “only” 7-2 SU since the layoff.

However, the 24-2 Bears, who were 13-4 ATS before the stoppage, got to breathe, refresh themselves, and collect their thoughts for six days before this matchup. Bettors should expect an effort reminiscent of the team that won all 17 of its games before the shutdown by more than the spread of this game, with a staggering 24.2 point average margin of victory during that stretch.

Nova still struggles to make shots consistently and should have a hard time keeping pace with the nation’s third-best scoring offense (85.3 ppg) and best three-point shooting team (42.9%).

Nova remains far outside even the top half of teams nationally in defending field goals and the three-point shot, meaning this game could get out of hand against a Baylor team that shoots it at nearly 50% from the field this season. The Bears have covered 7 of their last 10 neutral site games as a favorite and were 5-1 ATS this season when laying 3-7 points.

Baylor has also covered six of their eight games this season on at least three days of rest against opponents also on long rest.

The Bears should be able to pull away from a Wildcats team that, before this tournament, had lost four straight games both SU and ATS following an ATS win, with three of those four straight up losses coming by double digits.

Baylor vs. Villanova Betting Prediction

The Bears, with practically this same team, thoroughly whooped a superior version of Nova two years ago, and it feels like that is about to happen again in this one.

Pick: Baylor -7

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No. 3 Arkansas (-11.5) vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts

Laying double digits to an Oral Roberts team that has the nation’s leading scorer and just knocked off Ohio State and Florida may seem a fool’s errand, but this is actually the perfect spot to embrace Arkansas, even with the high line.

We have seen it time and time again, a Cinderella team endears itself to the nation during the opening weekend by pulling off a couple of memorable upsets only to get lambasted in its Sweet 16 matchup.

At this juncture, teams have had a few days off to watch tape and prepare for a known opponent and the better program is typically able to exert its might.

Florida Gulf Coast was the only other No. 15 seed to advance to the Sweet Sixteen and lost by more than this number to Florida in that round.

The only two No. 14 seeds to make the Sweet Sixteen both lost, as did all six No. 13 seeds to make it that far (by an average of 12.3 ppg). This is not a good omen for an Oral Roberts group which has finally met its offensive match in Arkansas.

The Razorbacks are seventh in the nation in scoring (83.3 ppg) and are a quality team from the free throw stripe.

Moreover, they defend the three-pointer well, taking away one of Oral Roberts’ main strengths. Arkansas’ ability to take a long miss and turn it into quick points the other way could blow this one wide open.

Oral Roberts also excels at the foul line, where they are the nation’s best free throw shooting team, but it is unlikely to get to the line frequently enough for it to matter. Keep in mind the Razorbacks are Top 40 in fewest fouls per possession in the country, despite their frenetic pace of play (12th most possessions per game).

Arkansas already dismantled a similar style team to this during the first round in Colgate. Despite spotting the Raiders a big early lead, it went on to win that game by 17 points as a smaller favorite than it is in this matchup. Even with tough SEC competition, Arkansas is 19-9-1 ATS and has 17 double-digit victories to its credit.

Coming into this tournament, Oral Roberts had lost all five of its games as double-digit underdogs this season, with three of those losses coming by double digits, including an 11-point loss to this same Arkansas team back on Dec. 20th.

Arkansas is 5-0 ATS this season when laying between 7.5-12 points and 9-5 ATS on at least three days of rest.

Arkansas vs. Oral Roberts Prediction

Look for the Razorbacks to move to 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a better than .600 win percentage thanks to an emphatic victory over the Golden Eagles who should see their Cinderella run end where teams with similar stories seem to bow out.

Pick: Arkansas -11.5

No. 1 Michigan (-2.5) vs. No. 4 Florida St.

Michigan and Florida State meet in one of the more heavyweight Sweet 16 matchups. Michigan has shown flashes of brilliance throughout this season, winning its first 11 games and 18 of its first 19 to begin the year.

However, down the stretch, the Wolverines’ fallibility began to rear its ugly head as they lost three of fives games coming into the NCAA Tournament. They did enough against LSU to ensure they at least remained a favorite on paper in this one, but we question whether they will be able to pull off the victory.

It’s almost beyond discussion that the Big Ten is the nation’s toughest conference top to bottom, yet, the group that sent nine teams to the NCAA Tournament only has one remaining in Michigan.

Was the stress and game-in, game-out abuse of that league enough to wear out, not toughen up, these teams when it counts the most?

Florida St. offers a rare mix that could cause matchup issues for the Wolverines. Much like Illinois, who had Kofi Cockburn in the middle, Florida State offers immense length throughout its starting lineup and bench that will allow it to push around freshman big and Michigan’s leading scorer in Hunter Dickinson.

The Seminoles can shoot and score with Michigan and will use that length and depth to make finding clean looks tough for the Wolverines throughout. It hasn’t caught up to Michigan yet, but the absence of Isaiah Livers will be glaringly obvious in this one. The Wolverines will sorely miss his leadership and his ability to knock down three-pointers at a high rate, Florida State’s one primary defensive weakness.

The Seminoles were only underdogs of 2+ points once this season and won that game outright by double digits over Louisville.

Historically, Florida State has been a great bet as a dog on neutral courts under Leonard Hamilton. The Seminoles have dropped just 7 of their last 29 games ATS as neutral sites underdogs.

Michigan vs. Florida St. Prediction

We think their size and depth make the difference in this one and expose Juwan Howard’s college coaching inexperience in games of this magnitude.

Pick: Florida State +2.5

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