The History of the 12th Overall Draft Pick is Pretty Solid
When the Eagles traded out of the #6 spot in April’s draft, and moved down to #12 overall, the question went something like this:
How much of a talent gap exists between those spots?
The answer, of course, depends on how strong a particular draft class is. In the past two seasons, with quarterbacks being at an all-time popularity level, Daniel Jones and Justin Herbert went off the board at #6 overall, while Henry Ruggs and Rashan Gary went at #12. In recent years, the push for QBs makes it hard to compare the overall talent between those two specific positions on the board.
What we do know is that the Eagles will be in a position to get a pretty damn good player if they stay at 12. Jaylen Waddle will probably be there. Jaycee Horn. Maybe Micah Parsons, who is the best linebacker in the draft. If the Eagles do take a first round linebacker, we’d see pigs flying over the Delaware River.
The good thing is that the history of the 12th overall pick is pretty strong.
Going back 10 years now, this is who was selected in each draft:
- 2020: Henry Ruggs – WR, Alabama
- 2019: Rashan Gary – LB, Michigan
- 2018: Vita Vea – DL, Washington
- 2017: Deshaun Watson – QB, Clemson
- 2016: Sheldon Rankins -DT, Louisville
- 2015: Danny Shelton- DT, Washington
- 2014: Odell Beckham, Jr. – WR, LSU
- 2013: D.J. Hayden, CB – Houston
- 2012: Fletcher Cox, DT – Mississippi State
- 2011: Christian Ponder, QB – Florida State
Three Pro Bowlers in that group, with Cox, Watson, and OBJ. Vea was pretty close in 2019. Rankins had a couple of bad injuries. Gary logged five sacks as a backup this season and Ruggs did okay as a rookie, scoring two touchdowns and going for 452 receiving yards in his first season with the Raiders. Ponder ended up being a bust.
Go back a bit further and you find the same kind of thing with the 12th overall pick. Some Pro Bowl talent, some second-tier skill position players, and some solid, if unspectacular, defensive players. Ryan Mathews and Knowshon Moreno were picked at #12. Ryan Clady, too. He won a Super Bowl and went to four Pro Bowls. Haloti Ngata, Marshawn Lynch, and Shawne Merriman were drafted in this spot in three consecutive years.
The other interesting thing with the Eagles is that they seem to do pretty well drafting in the 10-20 range. Derek Barnett was a decent pick at 14. Nelson Agholor was a huge part of the Super Bowl squad and went 20th overall. Fletcher Cox was 12th, Brandon Graham 13th, and Jeremy Maclin 19th.
Not sure if there’s anything to extrapolate from that, but it seems to be the sweet spot. They aren’t a ton of Eagle whiffs in that part of the first round. It seems like they start to go downhill when they get out of the top 20 and begin to overvalue players that other teams have further down their boards.
Regardless, this is a good spot for the Eagles. They can potentially land a five-year starter at cornerback. The best linebacker in the draft may be available. Waddle would have been a top-10 pick pre-injury. There are numerous ways to go at #12 and at the risk of jinxing it I’ll go ahead and double down:
Not even Howie Roseman can screw this up.