A day after sitting out with some lower back stiffness, Bryce Harper helped supply the only offense Aaron Nola needed on Sunday afternoon.

Staked just two runs, Nola delivered an ace-like performance by straight up shoving for nine innings against an overmatched St. Louis lineup to earn his first career complete game shutout.

His effort secured the struggling Phillies a much-needed series victory.

Harper, who went 3-for-3 with a walk to raise his batting average from .239 to .289 and OPS from .825 to .994, ignited the scoring in the first with a mammoth solo blast. That early 425 ft. shot (much more on it below) proved to be the eventual game-winning run.

In the fifth, Harper helped create an insurance run by following a Rhys Hoskins walk with a double that snuck just inside the left field line to set up another scoring chance.

With one out, Cardinals starting pitcher John Gant intentionally then walked J.T. Realmuto to load the bases for Alec Bohm, and he came through with a sacrifice fly that gave the Phillies a 2-0 lead.

Really, the sac fly might as well have made it 10-0 for Nola because the Cardinals had no shot against him. He surrendered just two hits without walking a batter while striking out 10 over nine masterful innings of work.

In the third, Nola, who lowered his season ERA from 3.45 to 2.19 on Sunday afternoon, began a stretch that saw him retire 13 straight Cardinals batters. That run was highlighted by a fifth inning in which he struck out the side:

As you can see above, he had all of his pitches working, generating whiffs on 21 of 51 St. Louis swings. A breakdown:

Pitch Type Count Swings Misses
Fastball 50 26 12
Curveball 36 12 7
Changeup 23 13 2

In fact, Nola would have retired 18 consecutive Cardinals hitters had he not committed a third-inning fielding error while receiving a feed from Hoskins at first base.

His impressive streak finally ended in the eighth when Paul DeJong singled off the outstretched glove of Andrew McCutchen.

Following the game, Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto was asked about the doubts of Nola’s standing as one of the game’s elite pitchers and whether it serves as motivation for the understated pitcher.

“If you look at Nola the last three or four years, I don’t know how you could possibly say he’s not an ace,” he said. “He’s been a top ten pitcher in baseball, so I’m not sure how that would not be considered an ace. So if that was me, it would certainly fuel my fire.”

Realmuto went on to say that those in the game know that Nola is an ace.

“I’m not really sure where that stipulation [that he’s not an ace] comes from, but it’s not from people who know baseball.”

Certainly, Nola isn’t without faults. Those rocky September starts over the last two years happened. He wasn’t sharp in two outings against the Mets earlier this month, but his overall numbers still stack up nicely after four starts:

  • 2.19 ERA
  • 0.97 WHIP
  • .219 BAA
  • 28/3 K/BB ratio

“I think a lot of times when people think of aces, they’re really hard throwers, but he’s got great movement, he’s got great off-speed,” Phillies manager Joe Girardi said after the game. “He has the ability to miss bats because of that, and he does a really good job of sometimes getting the ball on the ground. Again, I think with people throwing so hard right now, and you see what [Jacob] deGrom is like, you see what Gerrit Cole has, I think people scream at that as “ace,” but there are different types of aces, and he’s one of them.”

Nola bathed in the glory of his dominance.

Nola noted after the game that this was the first Gatorade (Powerade?) bath he’s taken.

“That was cool. That’s a great win, a great series win,” Nola said after the game. “The fans were loud in the ninth inning. That was pretty cool.”

No More Statistical Anomalies for Harper

I wrote on Friday night a little bit about Harper’s incredibly poor luck. The Phillies media staff did a little further digging and unearthed some crazy numbers.

During Friday night’s first inning, Harper struck a ball with a 109 mph exit velocity that carried a .980 expected batting average, according to MLB Statcast.

Per the Phillies staff, 109 balls had been put in play with an exit velocity of 108.5-109.5 mph and a launch angle between 30-32 degrees dating back to 2016. All 109 of those balls resulted in homers.

During the fourth inning of that same game, he produced a ball with a 108 mph exit velo and 26 degree launch angle that carried a .990 xBA. Remarkably, of 224 balls put in play at 107.5-108.5 mph with a similar launch angle during the same time frame, 223 resulted in hits, 222 of which were home runs.

To have such bad luck twice in a three at-bat stretch is, well, almost statistically impossible.

During Sunday afternoon’s first inning, he completely eliminated the possibility of any statistical anomalies with this second-deck shot off Gant:

The blast, which came off the bat at 111.8 mph with a 31 degree launch angle, carried a 1.000 xBA. In other words, MLB Statcast data interprets that contact profile incapable of producing an out.

It’s probably also near statistically impossible not to rake a 91.5 mph sinker that is this poorly located:

Happy Birthday, Phanatic

My wife and I are expecting a daughter later this summer, so I think I’m softening up a bit, or something. The Phillies showed this Phanatic birthday “flashback” to fans at Citizens Bank Park before the game.

It was kind of upsetting.

Can’t lie, the cupcake part just got me a little bit. Anyway, glad to see his friends were back for the party this year.

Let’s Talk About Mickey Moniak

About three weeks ago, the Phillies opted to roll with a center field platoon of Adam Haseley and Roman Quinn.

Obviously, that plan didn’t work out. Obviously.

At the time, the Phillies didn’t think the resurgent Mickey Moniak, who went 6-for-22 (.271) with a 1.112 OPS during limited spring training action, was ready yet.

But with Haseley on the restricted list, Quinn off to a historically poor start, and Scott Kingery still trying to mend his broken swing and confidence, the team shifted gears by opting to bring up Moniak.

While some figured this would be a low-pressure ask given the Phillies received virtually no production from Quinn or Haseley, I don’t see it that way. At all.

All eyes have been on this team’s center field situation for months now, and the Phillies are asking a player who probably isn’t ready yet to provide a desperately-needed spark.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, things didn’t exactly get off to a great start this weekend for the former No. 1 overall pick.

He went 0-for-8 with two walks and six strikeouts in three games against the Cardinals, continuing a streak of 12 games (an 0-for-33 stretch) in which the team’s starting center fielder has failed to record a hit.

Despite his early struggles, here’s what the Phillies can’t do — they can’t put a short leash on him now. He’s here, and the team has to give him a legitimate opportunity to get going, or they run the risk of stunting whatever positive strides he made this winter and spring by yanking him back and forth.

Find out what he can do. Find out what he can’t do. Go from there.

All the Small Things

  • In the second inning, the red-hot Jean Segura (.352 BA, .842 OPS) shot a two-out double into the right field gap. He came hard out of the box and took an aggressive turn around first before briefly hesitating. Segura then gambled for two and slid in safely, giving the Phillies a chance to extend their early one-run lead. However, Moniak would go down swinging to end the minor threat. I loved the aggressiveness, didn’t love the minor hesitation. Still, with two outs, I liked the gamble because it was either going to give Moniak a shot with runners in scoring position or force the Cardinals to intentionally walk Moniak and turn the lineup over. Things didn’t pan out for the Phillies in this case, but plays like this one eventually pay off.
  • After Hoskins and Harper reached base with two away in the third, the Phillies’ two-out rally came to a close when a hard ground ball off the bat of J.T. Realmuto struck Hoskins in the base path. Ruled a hit, the ball didn’t appear destined to get through the infield. Then again, with the way St. Louis played defensively in this series, you never know.
  • Nice job in the fifth by Phillies interim third base coach Paco Figueroa, who is filling in for Dusty Wathan (COVID-19 safety protocol), to hold Hoskins on Harper’s double with one out. Some fans booed the decision, but Hoskins would have been out by 10+ strides with a well-executed throw and tag. That move likely saved the Phillies an out and helped score a run.