Baylor vs Gonzaga Betting Prediction: Why The Over Is The Play

It is utterly amazing that through a strange and unpredictable COVID-19 altered season such as this, we still managed to get the two best teams in the country at season’s start on the same court for tonight’s championship battle between Gonzaga and Baylor.

Let’s take a closer look at this NCAA Tournament Championship Game matchup with our Baylor vs. Gonzaga betting prediction that includes odds, picks and full analysis.

Baylor vs. Gonzaga Betting Prediction

After a tournament filled with insane finished and wild upsets, Gonzaga and Baylor were able to avert such common disasters to arrive at this point, providing basketball observers with the dream matchup.

Click here to get 40-1 odds on the NCAA National Championship Game with FanDuel Sportsbook.

Gonzaga has been the best team in the country throughout the entirety of this season. Baylor was a clear second and had it not been for a three-week shutdown that cost them their rhythm during a 17-0 start, we could be talking about a much narrower public perception gap between these two teams right now. In fact, we may be talking about two undefeated teams.

Baylor vs. Gonzaga Betting Odds

Here are the latest Baylor vs. Gonzaga odds listed at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Baylor	+4.5 (-110)	+155	O 159 (-110)
Gonzaga	-4.5 (-110)	-190	U 159 (-110)

Saturday’s Final Four games seemed to wake up oddsmakers to the idea that there is a limited difference in abilities separating the Bulldogs and Bears, as our line here is around just 4.5 in Gonzaga’s favor. This despite a run of 28 straight double-digit wins coming into the Final Four.

While Gonzaga was shocked by UCLA and needed an overtime buzzer-beater to get here, Baylor thumped yet another formidable foe, making a 28-3 Houston that was playing some of the nation’s best basketball look rather mediocre.

As the two best teams arrive in the championship game, the playing field seems as leveled as basketball fans could dream it to be, so now it is time to offer a pick and prediction to help bettors before they lock in their plays for tonight’s championship tilt.

Click here to get 100-1 odds on Baylor-Gonzaga at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Baylor-Gonzaga Side Tough to Call

Picking a side in this game has suddenly entered murky waters that once appeared crystal clear.

Gonzaga reaching the Finals undefeated, rarely and barely threatened throughout the entire season, only to lay just 4.5 points should have meant a no-brainer bet on the Bulldogs to cover. However, any logical bettor who has been around this stuff for a long time is feeling the little hairs on the back of his/her necks stand up when they look at this line.

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, well…

After watching Baylor’s run through this tournament and noting Gonzaga’s sudden vulnerability against a UCLA team that many thought shouldn’t have even made this tournament, even the boldest of Gonzaga fans have to be a bit concerned about winning tonight, let alone covering.

In fact, from a contrarian perspective, it’s worth mentioning that Baylor is probably the play here if someone is desperate to bet a side. The public wants to bet on an undefeated Gonzaga team coming off an incredible win in this spot.

Betting the Baylor-Gonzaga Game Total

Instead, let’s focus on the total.

Sure, both teams sport high-quality defenses, as one would expect from a matchup featuring 31-0 and 27-2 teams.

But, the real story here is the dynamism of the two offenses, something that should once again find itself unmatched by any level of defense. The simplest example is the semifinal matchup between Gonzaga and UCLA.

Realistically, the Bruins only chance should have been to slow the game to a crawl when they had possession and hope they got lucky enough to outshoot the Gonzaga. Yet, 162 regulation points later, we had an overtime game that eventually produced 183 points and saw each team shoot better than 58% from the field, despite Gonzaga shooting just 30% from deep and neither team besting 70% from the free throw line.

There’s just something about the tempo created by the Bulldogs style of play that sparks quick and steady points.

Gonzaga creates the 19th-most possessions in the country at 76.1 per game, but the fact that the Bulldogs shoot the ball at a mind-blowing 55.3% from the field rockets their points per game average at a nation’s best 92.9.

Baylor doesn’t see nearly as many possessions per game, but they certainly keeps pace in the points department, averaging the nation’s third best number with 85.3 points per game.

This is a result of their NCAA leading three-point shooting group that drills 42.9% of deep shots, coupled with the nation’s eighth best effective possession ratio (.994) and second most extra scoring chances per game (7.5) behind just Houston.

Both teams have balance offensively, with Baylor boasting seven guys with 6+ ppg and Gonzaga fielding 6 players at 7.5+ ppg on the year.

Click here to get a $600 risk-free first bet with BetMGM.

The Numbers Dictate Points

Baylor scored less than 74 points just four times all season and all four of those times came in games in which the total was set at 143 or lower.

In their 11 games with totals set at 148 or higher, the Bears have averaged 87.5 ppg. During their 17-0 start, before the three-week shutdown when Baylor was playing a brand of basketball most similar to their current hot form, the Bears were averaging 87.0 ppg.

For Gonzaga, it has scored less than 80 points just three times all season — and twice to St. Mary’s.

In games with totals set at 160+ this season, the Bulldogs have scored an average of 97.0 ppg.

Defensively, we mentioned that both are quality teams, allowing less than 70 ppg on the season. But, by the numbers, Baylor is barely in the nation’s top 60 teams in terms of points per game allowed, while Gonzaga just squeaks into the top 150.

The same holds true for both teams’ field goal percentage defenses, which are 166th and 105th in the country, respectively.

Digging deeper, the Bears are just the 163rd best three-point field goal percentage defense in the land, while the Bulldogs are only 140th, a dangerous stat for them against the nation’s best deep threat team.

Both teams thrive on the ability to get out into the open court off opponents’ missed shots and create quick, easy points the other way, which could create a nice tempo to this game, whether shots are falling or not.

Gonzaga vs. Baylor Betting Trends to Know

The layoff turned Baylor into quite the over play this season. Its last five games before the layoff went over the posted number and it has played just three of their 12 games under the total since returning, including a 5-2 O/U mark in tournament play.

The Bears have played eight of their last nine games after a win over the total and eight of their last 11 over in NCAA Tournament play.

In fact, 10 of their last 13 games on neutral courts have also gone over, as have nine of their last 12 against teams with win percentages above .600.

Gonzaga backed up eight of their last nine games after covering the spread with an “over” performances. The Bulldogs also have played 13 of their last 18 neutral court games over the posted number, including seven of 11 this season.

The Bulldogs have also sailed over in 25 of their last 36 games against teams with win percentages above .600 and in 37 of their last 55 games following a win. And, in that same vein, Gonzaga played four of its five previous games this season as single-digit favorites over the total, with the one game that stayed under doing so by just a half point.

Baylor vs. Gonzaga Betting Pick

These two teams have combined to play 14 of their 21 games over the total on short rest this season.

The short turnaround here from Saturday night’s games should lend to both teams sticking to what got them here, efficient offenses and up-tempo play off of defensive rebounds.

With questionable foul shooting and high quality three-point shooting on both sides, bettors on the over could even get an overtime classic to bail them out if things end up less offensively impressive than expected.

At the end of the day, since their regular season meeting was canceled minutes before tipoff, this has felt like a finals matchup of fate.

There’s little reason to expect anything other than an absolute classic from two of the most polished teams in recent college basketball memory. Play it on their strengths.

Our Pick: Over 159 Total Points

SIGNUP LINK
$500 BET!

BET NOW
SIGNUP LINK
$500 BET!

BET NOW
SIGNUP LINK
$500 BET!

BET NOW
SIGNUP LINK
$500 BET!

BET NOW