The Phillies got a much-needed reprieve from the weather gods yesterday when poor conditions postponed a date with Jacob deGrom. The Phillies now return home looking to snap a three-game losing skid when they host the Cardinals at Citizens Bank Park tonight.
As the Phillies look for a sleeping offense to wake up with Zach Eflin on the hill, let’s take a look at our top Cardinals vs. Phillies prop picks for this April 16, 2021 MLB matchup.
Cardinals vs. Phillies Prop Picks (April 16, 2021)
Jean Segura to Get a Hit AND Philadelphia Phillies to Win (PointsBet Sportsbook +110)
We were ready to play against the Phillies AND Segura’s ability to get a hit in yesterday’s scheduled day game against the Mets, but the situation is turned on its head now and we are jumping ship.
Click here to get 100-1 odds on the Phillies to record 1+ hit in any game during the month of April at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Now, the Phillies are at home after the unscheduled off day with a rested bullpen and an emerging pitcher in Zach Eflin. The right-hander has kept the Phillies in both of his starts this season against an elite Braves lineup each time.
Dating back to last August, has not allowed more than four runs in a start in any of his last 10 outings and has given the Phils 6+ innings in each of his last four starts. An effort of six-plus innings today would get Philadelphia to the meat of their bullpen which has been solid this season. This team desperately needs a victory and has played well at home this season (5-1), continuing its stellar play in Philadelphia from a season ago, so this is as good a spot as any for them to get back in the win column.
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As for Segura, he has been red-hot lately, with hits in six straight games and in seven of his last eight games overall.
He avoided a major risk to his hitting streak with deGrom’s start rained out and should take that gift by parlaying it into a hit or two tonight.
He has hit safely in nine of the Phillies’ 12 games this season and has multiple hits four times, giving him 13 total hits.
He’s also only walked twice, meaning we should get our money’s worth when his spot in the lineup does come around
Further good news comes in the way of Segura’s career success against the Cards’ starter, Carlos Martinez. He is 5-for-15 (.333) lifetime against the righty, easily the best numbers of any current Phillie against him.
Right-handed batters have also hit Martinez better than lefties in the early going, which is good news for us as Segura should have some solid opportunities against a guy who has given up 12 hits in just 10 innings in the early going.
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Andrew McCutchen to Get a Hit – No (DraftKings Sportsbook +135)
For as good as Segura’s numbers have been against Martinez in his career, McCutchen’s numbers have been awful.
He has just 7 hits in 47 plate appearances, sporting a brutal .171 batting average against the right-hander.
His 11 strikeouts in 41 at-bats against Martinez and 11 strikeouts in 36 at-bats on the season are both well worse than his career K/AB rates.
Yes, McCutchen has batted at the top of the order for the Phillies this season, meaning potential extra trips to the plate compared to the guys at the bottom, but what does it matter when he is hitting just .139 (5-36) on the season?
He hasn’t had a hit in four straight games (3 starts) and has hits in less than half of his team’s games. And it won’t likely matter if the Phillies get to the Cardinals’ bullpen, as McCutchen is hitting .150 against righties and just .125 against left-handed pitchers.
When guys struggle like this, especially those in key spots in the lineup, sometimes it helps them to focus on the little things to get them going, things like drawing walks, bunting for a hit, moving guys over, or getting guys home from third with less than two outs.
McCutchen doesn’t really have the speed to bunt for many hits at this point in his career and none of the other things listed above require hits to accomplish.
McCutchen does have seven walks to his name this season and we could see a back-to-basics approach from him tonight, trying to work the count on a guy who has walked him six times in their career meetings.