On Thursday night, the Philadelphia Flyers will be on the road facing their cross-state rivals the Pittsburgh Penguins. This represents the sixth iteration of the Battle of the Keystone State this season and the fourth such occurrence at PPG Paints Arena.
Let’s get into our Flyers-Penguins betting pick with player prop predictions, odds and analysis for this April 15, 2021 matchup.
Flyers vs. Penguins Betting Pick (April 15, 2021)
The Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins are slated to take the ice in Pittsburgh tonight in what will mark the fourth and final meeting to take place on the Penguins’ home ice. These teams, however, are trending in very different directions. Philadelphia followed up a woeful month of March with an uninspired 2-4-1 record in April, including a 6-1 road blowout at the hands of the Washington Capitals. Pittsburgh, meanwhile has gone a stellar 8-2-0 in their last ten games, the best such record over that stretch in the East Division.
After taking down the Boston Bruins last Saturday, the Flyers have watched their playoff hopes take a serious hit via the aforementioned loss to the Capitals, as well as a horrendous 5-3 loss to the lowly Buffalo Sabres. Philadelphia’s goaltending issues had appeared to have been rectified to some extent prior to their last two games, but the 200 ft. game head coach Alain Vigneault preaches has not been followed by the skaters in front of the team’s netminders. At 19-17-6, Philadelphia sits in sixth place in the East Division, six points behind the Bruins for the final playoff spot.
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The Penguins are enter play in the midst of a three-game winning streak following a 5-2 win over the Rangers and victories over the Devils by a score of 6-4 and 5-2. Pittsburgh. The fascinating part of Pittsburgh’s 8-2-0 stretch has been the strong play of their captain Sidney Crosby, who’s posted 16 points in those games. Just four points behind Washington with a game in hand, the Pens are a legitimate threat to take the top seed in the division by season’s end.
Flyers vs. Penguins Odds
Here’s the line for the Flyers and Penguins at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:
- Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-175), Penguins -1.5 (+143)
- Moneyline: Flyers +145, Penguins -167
- Over/Under: O 6.5 -105, U 6.5 -117
Bets We Like With a Penguins Win
Money Puck gives the Penguins a 59.1% chance of winning this game. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is slightly higher at 60%.
Penguins Win and Over 5.5 Goals (+140, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Battle of the Keystone State began with a pair of Flyers wins at home over their rivals the Pittsburgh Penguins. It led to a number of pundits wondering aloud whether or not the Pittsburgh core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang’s time had passed. The Pens went on to win their next four games and are now within striking distance of the top spot in the stacked East Division, while the Flyers will be taking in the postseason from their couches. Early results do not a season make.
The teams met at the beginning of March, with all three games taking place in Pittsburgh. After taking the third overall meeting 5-2, Philadelphia snagged their third victory over the Pens 4-3 before Pittsburgh roared back with a 4-3 result of their own. Given their results, it stands to reason Pittsburgh will skate away with their third head-to-head win.
As for the total goals scored, hedging down to 5.5 goals to account for the potential of a six goal result is worth the slight hit in the potential payout as opposed to taking over 6.5 goals. The teams combined for nine goals in their first meeting and seven in each of their next four. Pittsburgh has seen the total goal over 6.5 goals in each of their last five games overall, while Philadelphia has seen that same trend in their last two. However, Philadelphia has also seen the total goals go under 6.5 in five of their last seven games overall. As such, we’d encourage lowering the total goals down to 5.5 and taking the over with a Penguins win at +140 odds.
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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome
Both Teams to Score 1+ Goals in the First Period (+200, BetMGM)
If you’re looking for an excellent scoring prop independent of outcome, look no further than this Lion’s Boost from the folks at BetMGM. The Flyers and Penguins have met five times thus far this season and if there’s one commonality among most of those meetings, it’s been first period scoring. In fact, the Flyers and Penguins have each scored in the first period in four of five meetings:
- 1/13/21: PIT (1), PHI (2)
- 1/15/21: PIT (2), PHI (3)
- 3/2/21: PHI (0), PIT (0)
- 3/4/21: PHI (1), PIT (3)
- 3/6/21: PHI (1), PIT (2)
While it’s true that the only meeting that saw the teams fail to score at least one goal each took place in Pittsburgh, the teams upped the early scoring in the following two contests. The Penguins have also scored in the first period in each of their last five games overall, while the Flyers have done so in four consecutive games. This one is certainly worth taking a flier on.
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Jake Guentzel to Record 2+ Points (+195, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Penguins forward Jake Guentzel is having himself quite a season, putting up 45 points (20G, 25A) in 42 games this season. In fact, his 45 points are good enough for the 12th-highest mark in the entire league, while his 20 goals have him at 8th in the NHL entering Thursday night’s game.
Guentzel has been on a roll as of late, recording multiple points in consecutive games and three of his last five overall. After being held off the scoresheet in the first matchup against the Flyers, Guentzel recorded an assist in each of the next three games before recording two assists in the teams’ fifth meeting.
If you’re looking for a player prop bet independent of outcome with a solid chance of happening with a respectable payout, this one is worth considering.
Flyers vs. Penguins Prediction
Pick: The Penguins and Flyers are trending in different directions, and while rivalry games can be unpredictable, there’s little reason to believe Philadelphia will skate away with the upset. Take the Penguins to Win and Over 5.5 Goals.