On Sunday afternoon, the Philadelphia Flyers will play host to the Buffalo Sabres. This represents the eighth and final meeting between the teams this season and the fourth to take place at the Wells Fargo Center.
Let’s get into our Flyers-Sabres betting pick with player prop predictions, odds and analysis for this April 11, 2021 matchup.
Flyers vs. Sabres Betting Pick (April 11, 2021)
The Philadelphia Flyers will host the Buffalo Sabres for the fourth and final time at Wells Fargo Center this season, their eighth and final meeting overall in this condensed, realigned schedule. After the Sabres took the first meeting between the teams, the Flyers won the next five meetings between the teams, only for the Sabres to hand the Orange & Black an embarrassing 6-1 regulation defeat in Buffalo to end a woeful 18-game losing streak.
The Flyers enter play at 19-15-6, which has them a point ahead of the sixth-place New York Rangers. Meanwhile, they find themselves four points behind the Boston Bruins for the final playoff spot in the East Division. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, Boston has two games in hand and it cannot be overstated just how difficult it would be to leapfrog them in the standings. If Philadelphia looks ahead to the third place Penguins, the picture gets even more bleak as there’s a ten-point gap to make up. All of that is to say the Flyers are in a must-win situation every time they take the ice.
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The Buffalo Sabres are coming off a 4-3 loss at home to the Washington Capitals, their second consecutive defeat. After breaking their 18-game losing streak against the Flyers, Buffalo has gone 2-2-1 in their last five games. Although they’ve lit the lamp at least three time in four of those five games, they’ve allowed an average of 3.6 goals per game over that stretch.
Can Buffalo earn their third win against Philadelphia, or will the Flyers build off the momentum of their win over the Bruins?
Flyers vs. Sabres Odds
Here’s the line for the Flyers and Sabres at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:
- Spread: Flyers -1.5 (+108), Sabres +1.5 (-127)
- Moneyline: Flyers -240, Sabres +200
- Over/Under: O 5.5 -122, U 5.5 +100
Bets We Like With a Flyers Win
Money Puck gives the Flyers a 68.6% chance of winning this game. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is nearly identical at 68%.
Flyers Win and Over 4.5 Goals (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Philadelphia Flyers pulled off quite the impressive victory over the Boston Bruins on Saturday night, taking down a team that had given them fits all season, which also happened to be directly ahead of them in the East Division standings. Assuming they can build off the momentum and continue their strong play with their backs against the wall, it stands to reason they’ll win their sixth game against the basement-dwelling Sabres on Sunday afternoon.
Each team these teams have met, the lamp as been lit frequently. After the Sabres skated away with a decisive 6-1 win over the Flyers in mid-January, the Flyers responded with three-straight 3-0 wins. When the calendar turned to March, the Flyers won a 5-4 shootout, then a 4-3 overtime result in the first of two matchups in three nights. Buffalo responded in kind with a 6-1 victory at home on the final day in March.
If there’s one reason to hedge a bit, it’s been due in large part to the solid netminding of Carter Hart and Brian Elliott. After an abysmal month of March, the Flyers have held their opponents to just 2.8 goals per game in the month of April. It’s by no means an elite number, but it’s a marked improvement over the crooked numbers they’d allowed in March.
The Sabres have seen the total goals scored in their last three games average eight goals per game. If you want to get in on the Flyers to Win and Over 5.5 Goals, you can get in on that same-game parlay at +148 odds. We’d recommend hedging a bit down to 4.5 goals and taking the over.
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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome
Travis Konecny to Score a Goal (+190, BetMGM)
After struggling to find the back of the net for much of the season, including stretches of nine- and twelve-game scoreless streaks, Travis Konecny appears to have rediscovered his confidence. In the Flyers’ win over the Bruins on Saturday afternoon, Konecny scored a goal and dished out an assist. He’s scored a goal in two of his last four games and has at least one assist in four of his last five games.
Philadelphia’s leading goalscorer from a season ago rounding into form with his team’s season on the brink would be the definition of great timing. If you’d rather hedge and get Konecny to record at least one point of any kind, BetMGM has those odds at -145.
Any Player to Score 2+ Goals (+125, FOX Bet)
If you’re looking for a relatively attainable player prop independent of outcome and regardless of which team, getting any player to score two or more goals could be worth a look. In fact, it’s happened in three games with four players having done so:
- 1/18/21 BUF @ PHI: Curtis Lazar (2), Sam Reinhart (2)
- 3/9/21 BUF @ PHI: Sam Reinhart (2)
- 3/31/21 PHI @ BUF: Brandon Montour (2)
The main thing to note is that it’s happened in two of the last three meetings between the teams, and given the fact that this is their eighth meeting this season, it stands to reason that familiarity will lead to a number of goals being scored.
Flyers vs. Sabres Prediction
Pick: The Flyers are in a must-win situation in every game going forward if they hope to contend for the postseason. While they’ve had inconsistent moments in the second half of back-to-backs, they should be able to build off a strong win over the Bruins. Take the Flyers to Win and Over 4.5 Goals.
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