The Phillies will look to avoid a sweep this afternoon at Citizens Bank Park when they send Zach Eflin to the mound against San Francisco’s Anthony DeSclafani. After the Phils’ lineup went quiet in the opener, it was the pitching staff’s turn to take brunt of the blame last night. Now, the Phillies must find a way to get by one of baseball’s hottest pitchers in the early going if they hope to finish a disappointing homestand at the .500 mark.
Let’s take a look at the Giants vs. Phillies odds for the final matchup of this three-game set and make a game prediction and betting pick on this April 21, 2021 contest.
Giants vs. Phillies Odds
Here is a look at the current Giants vs. Phillies odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
|Phillies||+1.5 (-148)||+148||O 8 (-107)|
|Braves||-1.5 (+123)||-175||U 7 (-114)|
Click here to get 100-1 odds on any MLB team to record 1+ hit in any game during the month of April at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Giants vs. Phillies Prediction
After watching what felt like a Phillies’ bullpen recap film from last season during last night’s loss, one can’t help but wonder what is lurking around the corner for this team as the injuries and roster holes begin to show. The wheels have rapidly spun off this bus since the Phils hit the road for the first time and now even their early home magic is starting to wear off.
Phillies bullpen is back! pic.twitter.com/YkB8jTF7Dr
— Crossing Broad (@CrossingBroad) April 21, 2021
Although Philadelphia dipped below .500 for the first time this season last night, we are still just 17 games into a very long season. There is enough veteran leadership in this clubhouse to find ways to win big games (as today feels like it might be), even when the team is struggling on multiple fronts.
One of those leaders is Bryce Harper and he is absolutely locked in right now, going 9-for-13 with four walks and just one strikeout during this current homestand. While his supporting cast may look a bit different today with Jean Segura and Didi Gregorius dinged up, he has seen some role players and young bats starting to make an impact of late.
Last night, Brad Miller had a big three-run home run, a center fielder finally recorded a hit and Nick Maton collected his first Big League double. With the recent reality check that this bullpen may not be what Phillies fans hoped it was from its early showings this spring, this team is going to need its bats to fully awaken from their early slumber if they want to compete in a jam-packed and, thus far, surprisingly pedestrian NL East.
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The Phils can feel confident coming into this afternoon game knowing they have Zach Eflin on the mound. Philadelphia has won eight of his last 10 starts and, while he has pitched well in that stretch, it’s the run support his teammates have given him that jumps off the page.
Phils Typically Support Eflin
Philly has scored six-plus runs in five of Eflin’s last eight starts and are averaging 5.6 runs per game the last 10 times he’s gotten the ball. Furthermore, six of his last eight starts have gone over the posted total, as have five of his last six starts as a favorite.
When Eflin struggles, it’s often the long ball that lets him down. He allowed 28 home runs during the 2019 season, tied for 22nd most in the league. As Phillies fans have witnessed first-hand in this series, even though the Giants’ offense is pretty rancid by the numbers, it is dangerous with the long ball. They entered play yesterday with MLB’s second-worst team batting average and runs scored per game, yet they currently boast the second-most home runs per game of any team. And, that 1.47 HR/G average spikes to 1.73 HR/G on the road.
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Current Giants have had success off of Eflin, as well. They are 13-43 (.302) against the righty with three home runs. With the ball starting to fly a little more in the warmer air at Citizens Bank Park, could we see a few more clear the wall today?
Eflin has four career starts against San Francisco and all four have sailed over the total as well as today’s total. Those four starts averaged 13.3 total runs per game and four times one of the teams playing scored today’s total or greater by itself.
This total looks a bit low, but shouldn’t be a huge surprise to anyone based on how these two lineups have labored to produce runs all season. And with the positive early outings by both starters, it stands to reason that most shops are showing the total at just 8 right now, down from 8.5 at Open.
Is DeSclafani’s Start for Real?
RHP Anthony DeSclafani toes the rubber for San Francisco today and he has allowed just two runs across 17 innings in his three starts thus far in 2021. However, three good starts against the league’s 11th, 15th, and 24th-ranked run producing teams isn’t going to be enough to wash away the memory of his 7.22 ERA last summer.
It’s also not going to make us forget that he allowed 24 home runs in 2018 and 29 home runs in 2019 (18th most in MLB).
DeSclafani’s five starts against the Phillies have produced four overs and have all reached today’s number or greater. Those five games averaged 10.4 total runs per game with DeSclafani allowing 18 ER in 30 innings pitched (5.40 ERA).
Trends to Know
The Phillies have played four straight games over the total (all this season) after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game.
Philadelphia has also played five of six games over this season after allowing 5+ runs previously.
With six of the Phils’ last eight home games going over the number, as well as 10 of their last 14 overall, look for today to make it eight overs in Philly’s last 11 games against right-handed starters.
Giants vs. Phillies Pick
Despite a game featuring two starting pitchers off to strong starts this season and two lineups that have scuffled in the early going, we like this one to go over the total.
Giants-Phillies Pick: OVER 8 RUNS