Hawks vs. Sixers Odds, Prediction, Picks (April 28, 2021)

The 76ers will once again have an opportunity to take care of an inferior opponent tonight at the Wells Fargo Center following a blowout win over the Thunder two nights ago. That game featured a near-complete lineup, and now the Sixers will lay another large number tonight to the Hawks. Another win here and the Sixers will appear fully rebounded from their rough recent four-game losing streak.

Let’s take a closer look at the top Hawks vs. Sixers game picks and make some predictions for this April 28, 2021 matchup.

Hawks vs. Sixers Pick (April 28, 2021)

For as bad as the Sixers have had it of late with their rash of injuries and illnesses to key players, the Hawks may currently have it worse. The league’s 14th-ranked scoring offense (113.3 points per game) will be without Trae Young (25 ppg), De’Andre Hunter (16 ppg), Kevin Huerter (12 ppg), and Cam Reddish (11 ppg). That is well over half of the team’s scoring on the bench in street clothes. Things could get worse if mid-season acquisition Lou Williams is still hampered by illness.

If he misses or has a minutes restriction, Atlanta is left with little to no dynamic guard play, which has been the key to taking down the Sixers this season.

Philly’s main question at this point centers around how many minutes Joel Embiid can and should handle with his nagging shoulder. Will the Sixers sit him down late with a big lead? Will they manage his minutes throughout the game to minimize risk? How will this affect the team’s ability to win and/or cover?

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Hawks vs. Sixers Odds

Here’s the line for the Hawks and Sixers at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team	Run Line	Moneyline	Total
Hawks	+7 (-108)	+240	O 215.5 (-112)
Sixers	-7 (-113)	-295	U 215.5 (-109)

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

Bets we Like with a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win by 1-10 points AND Under 217.5 Total Points (PointsBet +400)

With Atlanta extremely short handed, especially at the guard position, we think the Hawks will struggle to score the ball in this one. Dynamic guards have run rampant against Philadelphia all season long, but with Young out and Ben Simmons back in the mix defensively, the Sixers should be able to hold Atlanta under its season road scoring average of 112.7 ppg and defend its stellar 23-7 home record.

The Sixers, however, continue to rebuild their chemistry from the varied key absences of late. They are also clearly managing their stars’ minutes wherever possible, as no player on the roster played even 27 minutes in either of the last two games. With that in mind, we could see another hot start by a team still looking to get its swagger back that then fades into a conseratve approach late.

Atlanta, much like Cleveland, has been a tough out for these Sixers in recent seasons. The Hawks have won five of the last six head-to-head meetings outright, covering all six of those games against the spread. This feels like a game in which the Sixers look dominant defensively for long stretches, but still find a way to let a far inferior team sneak in through the back door to cover late.

The essentially 10.5 point line for this prop is still a big nut to crack in today’s NBA, no matter the opponent. As proof, Philly has only covered 12 of their 27 games this season as favorites of 5-14.5 points (44.4%) despite being one of the most dominant teams in the league. We expect a low-scoring 76ers win by single digits here when the dust settles.

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Half Time Winner Philadelphia / Full Time Winner Philadelphia (PointsBet -150)

If you subscribe to the idea that an undermanned Hawks team is likely to find themselves the prey of a Sixers team that has just four losses to opponents located outside the top four spots in their respective conferences, then this should be a tremendous prop bet to help shrink the steep current Philadelphia moneyline (roughly -350 at many shops) down to a far more palatable -150.

If the Sixers do win, as we suspect they will, then how do we know they will also lead at the half? Well, here are two comforting trends that should help put your betting soul at ease. First, the Sixers have not trailed at the half in any of their last 11 wins.

Secondly, Atlanta has only led at the half in two of its last 15 losses (13.3%).

With the contrast in health and talent that should be on the floor throughout, we are confident that the Sixers will figure things out by halftime, even if Atlanta somehow comes out hot. Knowing they desperately need to stack up wins down the stretch to keep or improve upon their current No. 2 seed in the East, they should give a focused effort down the stretch to ensure the win.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

1st Quarter Tribet 3.5 – Either Team to Win the Quarter by 3 or Less (PointsBet +175)

If you were with us for our First Quarter/Full Game prop winner on Monday, you already know how successful the Sixers have been in the first quarter of wins. They have now won the first quarter in six straight wins, including three straight at home.

They are also now 16-2 in the first quarter of their last 18 wins. We can expect a hot start from them, so you certainly cannot play against them in the first stanza here.

However, we believe a first quarter win will be hard-earned for the Sixers tonight. The Hawks have proven quick starter and have actually managed to win three of the last six first quarters in games they have lost. Overall, they have only lost seven of their last 18 first quarters.

The Hawks have seen nine of their last 21 first quarters decided by three points or less (42.9%). Surprisingly, despite how dominant they have been in first quarters of wins recently, as noted above, the Sixers have landed in this first quarter point band even more dramatically than Atlanta’s solid rate. Philadelphia has seen eight of their last 17 first quarters decided by three points or less (47.1%).

With the 76ers at home and far healthier than Atlanta, but with the Hawks’ 11th-ranked three-point shooting and fifth-ranked foul shooting group, expect this one to be close for a while before Philly can impose its will. This is a good price for two teams both playing nearly 50 percent of their recent games within this first quarter band.

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Hawks vs. Sixers Prediction

We are highly confident that the Sixers will win this game, but laying this high of a number against a team that has been so successful in recent head-to-head meetings doesn’t feel right, especially seeing a single digit spread here with a decimated Atlanta lineup that just lost by 14 to the lowly Pistons.

With Philly coming off of a 31-point demolition of OKC, it seems to us that tonight’s line should have been double digits, so it doesn’t quite pass the smell test.

Instead, we are drawn, once again, to an under play in this one, as it was so kind to us in our winner Monday night in that Thunder game.

We saw the difference Simmons’ presence makes defensively for the 76ers, as they turned Oklahoma City over 30 times, while holding the Thunder to just 90 points. With Simmons out there again tonight and Embiid and Howard likely able to contain Clint Capela’s impact on the glass, the Hawks should have the same problems scoring. After all, with a similar lineup in their last game to what will be available tonight, Atlanta managed just 4-for-27 from three-point range against Detroit.

Philly coasted to 121 points against the Thunder, but in its five previous games, the Sixers averaged just 105.3 points per game. We think tallying anything much over 110 today is a reach, given that the Hawks are a far better defensive team than Oklahoma City. Atlanta is in the top half of the league in scoring defense, 12th-best in field goal percentage defense, and the third-best three-point field goal percentage defense in the NBA.

Trends to Know

Trends-wise, Atlanta has played four of their last five games under as an underdog.

That ties in with another trend that shows the Hawks playing seven of their last 10 under the total against teams with above .600 win percentages.
Coincidentally, the Sixers have played seven of their last eight under as favorites, including four of their last five as home favorites.
Philadelphia, which has played nine of its last 12 overall under the posted number, has also played five of their last six under after a win.

ATS Pick

The two teams have combined to play ten of their last 13 games on one day of rest Under the total, as well. Look for tonight to make it nine Unders in 14 tries for Atlanta this season as dogs of five or more.

Our Pick: UNDER 215 points