Joe Giglio Lays Out Totally Reasonable Anti-DeVonta Smith Argument
Joe Giglio has a reputation in this town for being kind of takey, like he’s doing the contrarian radio guy thing as a subconscious homage to the industry and its forefathers.
Is that fair? I’m not so sure. I think Bob, who goes on Joe’s show to talk Phillies, did a perfect job of commenting on that in our recent RADIO WARS article in which we said one nice thing and one negative thing about each local show.
Wrote Bobby:
“Everybody likes to criticize Joe for taking the contrarian viewpoint, but there are some important things to consider here. The first is that he is excellent at supporting his positions with logical and data-driven responses. Whether or not you agree with his opinions, they are never lazily constructed or formed simply to appease listeners. Ultimately, Joe has one of the market’s few shows that challenges groupthink. Sometimes, his positions are uncomfortable because they force you to consider potentially devastating scenarios.”
I agree with this. The difference between Giglio and a guy like Howard Eskin is that at least Joe can back up every argument he makes. And he’ll actually sit down and write stories instead of just blathering bullshit into a mic and calling it a day.
This is on display at the WIP website, in a story authored by Joe and titled “Eagles would be foolish to draft DeVonta Smith at No. 12.” On the surface, the headline, which he may or not not have written, might seem takey, since we’re talking about the Heisman Trophy winner here, but I read the entire thing and found it to be compelling and 100% backed up with facts and stats.
As an exercise on this website, I’d like to pull some passages from the story and add some thoughts and commentary. I’ll say I don’t personally have a strong feeling on Smith one way or another, nor does the Crossing Broad staff, but on the surface it’s hard to see a positive fan reaction to the Eagles, whose receivers stink, passing on the Heisman Trophy winner if he’s on the board at 12.
Writes Giglio:
He’s too small, and let’s stop pretending this doesn’t matter
It matters. Smith weighed in at 166 pounds. Before getting to historical NFL trends when it comes to players like this, let me throw this out there: I am not a big person. If anyone suggested anyone *close* to my height and weight could play at a high level in the NFL, laughter would ensue. Smith is about my height. He doesn’t weigh that much more than me. It’s a very simple rule to evaluate NFL Draft prospects. Trust me on this one.
Or trust NFL teams and the history of the draft. There’s never been a wide receiver under 175 pounds drafted in the top 15 picks of a draft. Ever. The reason is clear: That’s way too much risk to incur on a selection that high. Some may argue Smith’s route-running ability and hands make him less risky. I say his weight makes him way more risky to be far less than a star at the next level.
Do you know how many wide receivers under 170 pounds have recorded a 1000-yard season in the last three decades? The answer is zero, so stop trying to look it up. The NFL is about rare, game-changing traits. Sure, smaller receivers (Tyreek Hill, DeSean Jackson) have worked out well. But both possess rare speed. Smith doesn’t. He’s far closer to a 4.45 or 4.50 type of runner than a 4.30 blazer. With physical corners nearing (or topping) 200 pounds in the NFL, asking Smith to play the outside, get off press coverage and take the top of the defense is a fool’s errand. He won’t be that guy with his size and speed profile.
This is all reasonable. And the thing with Smith, for me, is less about whether he can get off the line or compete for catches or create space, because the tape shows that he’s good at doing all of those things. It’s more about durability and how much a guy with a lighter frame can hold up. How much punishment can he take?
We know that Smith will probably very easily add 10 pounds at the NFL level. He’s got a frame that can take on more weight. Any 30+ year old dad standing six feet tall understands this.
In this case, Smith would clock in at about 6’1″, 175 pounds. That’s a slightly taller Travis Konecny. Roman Quinn weighs 175. The Philadelphia Union outside backs are this size. We can say it doesn’t matter because of what Smith did on tape, but 166 is significantly light, and even if he does add the extra weight, he’s still undersized.
Joe:
Let Nick Siranni work with the young wide receivers already on the roster
While many correlated last week’s excited wide receiver talk from Sirianni into a tell on a possible Smith pick, I was thinking about Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins, Travis Fulgham, John Hightower and Greg Ward. You can even add in J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, if you so dare. Whether you count five or six, the Eagles have a wide receiver room full of young pass catchers, ranging from 22-to-25 years old.
And here’s the thing –
If you keep “missing” on receivers, should you draft until you get it right? You can pull JJAW and Jalen Reagor out of “bust” territory simply by developing these guys, and if you go out and draft another receiver in the first round, you’re just pushing the rest of the group further down the board. The Birds have drafted four receivers in two years, which constitutes 26.6% of their selections. You have to ask if it’s feasible to develop these guys under a new staff.
Joe:
The impact of first-round wide receivers is overrated
We do this every year, and every year the same trap gets us.
Young wide receivers (especially on talent-barren teams that need help everywhere) don’t jump into the NFL and lead to victories. Last year, six wide receivers (Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk) were selected in the first round. The combined records for the six teams (Raiders, Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings, 49ers) after making those picks: 31-48-1. Not a single one of those six teams posted a winning record.
Last season, eight NFL players caught at least 100 passes. Do you know how many were selected within the top 12 of the NFL Draft? None. Here are the rounds the NFL’s best pass catchers were taken: Fifth, first (27th overall), second, sixth, third, second, third and third.
Also true.
The only thing I’d say here is that if you back a bit further, you had guys like A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, OBJ, and Mike Evans coming out of various stages of the first round. So while the hit/miss ratio for WR seems to be tougher than other positions, it doesn’t mean that a Pro Bowl stud won’t be there, somewhere. Eagles fans should feel justified in being bummed out by the DK Metcalf/Jefferson non-picks, because they’re looking at other teams pulling skilled receivers with high draft picks.
Also, it’s worth pointing out that Nelson Agholor, for all of his later faults, was a first-round draft pick who had a huge season when the Birds won the Super Bowl. He wasn’t top-12, but he was a solid talent during that one fantastic season.
But anyway, it’s a good story by Joe. Facts! Numbers! Recent NFL parallels and comparisons! It’s not takey, it’s worth a read:
I’m out on using a premium pick on DeVonta Smith. The Eagles should be too. https://t.co/x7pR3ZqsuB
— Joe Giglio (@JoeGiglioSports) April 26, 2021