Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Prediction, Picks (April 30, 2021)
Playing without both Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius yesterday, the short-handed Phillies fell in extra innings. In the process, they failed to win their first road series of the season. Tonight, they limp back to Citizens Bank Park after a 3-4 road trip to start up an important series with the Mets. Philadelphia will look to win a Chase Anderson (0-3, 6.48 ERA) for the first time this season, while New York will send Marcus Stroman (3-1, 2.25 ERA) to the mound. He will look to earn his third win of the month against the Phillies after silencing their bats twice already this month.
Let’s take a look at the Mets vs. Phillies odds for the opener of a three-game weekend set and make a game prediction along with some betting picks.
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Mets vs. Phillies Odds
Here is a look at the current Mets vs. Phillies odds for this April 30, 2021 matchup, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+125) | -132 | O 9 (-110) |
| Phillies | +1.5 (-148) | +114 | U 9 (-110) |
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Mets vs. Phillies Prediction
The streak continues as the Phillies managed to lose their ninth straight game after a win to split their four-game series in St. Louis. Now, they return home to face RHP Marcus Stroman and the Mets, who have played baseball on just ten of the fifteen days since taking three straight from Philly at Citi Field.
The Phillies should come in with plenty of motivation here. There is the obvious revenge from the aforementioned series coupled with a desire to avoid falling two games below .500 for the first time this season. Currently in a three way tie atop the National League East, a loss here could drop the Phils as low as fourth in the division.
Luckily, being at home seems to be the good luck charm for this Phillies team. They are 8-4 at home, compared to 4-9 on the road, having taken two of three from these Mets earlier this season. The Mets have similar struggles on the road at just 3-6 away, thus far.
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We will give ourselves the benefit of the extra run of protection here via the +1.5 run line for the Phils.
With two offenses that struggle to score runs (Mets second-least runs per game; Phillies sixth-least), this division rivalry could produce another low-scoring and close affair. Two of the Mets’ last six wins over the Phillies were by one run, one of which came against tonight’s starter for the Phils, RHP Chase Anderson.
This season has already seen 16 of their combined 44 games end in one run margins (36.4%). Philly has already endured four one-run losses, including yesterday’s 4-3 extra inning defeat at St. Louis, while New York has four one-run wins.
Marcus Stroman has already beaten the Phillies twice this season and the Mets have won seven of his last eight starts overall.
Moreover, Stroman is 2-0 this season against Philly, having allowed just one earned run and seven hits over 12 innings pitched.
Historically, however, he has been a much better pitcher at home (3.49 ERA) than he is on the road (4.00 ERA). If Bryce Harper is forced to sit out again tonight, it wouldn’t be the worst matchup for him to miss, as he is a lifetime 0-for-8 off of the righty.
He’s Due, Right?
Anderson has certainly not been what the Phillies had hoped for from their fifth starter. Dating back to last season, Anderson’s teams have now lost eight straight games with him on the hill, including three times against New York (twice already this season). Luckily, one of his two losses to the Mets this season was a one-run loss, which would get things done for us tonight.
Interestingly enough, four of Anderson’s last nine losses came by one run, with two more coming by just two runs. In fact, five of the right-hander’s eight career starts against the Mets have produced final scores decided by two runs or less.
Despite the Phils losing both of Anderson’s starts against the Mets this season, current Mets are still just 17-for-88 (.193) off Anderson. The home run ball has done him in against New York, but with strong winds supposedly blowing in from the northwest tonight, he might get some help there.
The Phils have responded to win their last four games after a loss. They are also 4-1 in their last five games upon returning home for a road trip of a week or more. Look for the Phils to move to 21-9 in their last 30 home games, including 15-6 at CBP against sub .500 teams. Een if they don’t, these putrid offenses could very well see this one end with a one-run Mets squeaker.
Trends to Know
Keep in mind, the Mets are just 3-7 in their last ten games as road favorites and 2-6 in their last eight games after a day off.
They have also won just five of their previous 16 games after allowing two runs or less runs in their previous game, which could prove troublesome tonight as they enter off a 1-0 loss to Boston on Wednesday.
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Mets vs. Phillies Betting Pick
With just a 1-6 record in their last seven against right-handed starters, including 1-4 on the road, this could be a sneaky spot to get a home dog Philadelphia team with the benefit of the one-run protection, which is always huge for the home team.
Phillies vs. Mets Pick: Phillies +1.5 (-126)
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