Phillies vs. Mets Betting Prediction and Picks (April 13, 2021)

phillies mets betting prediction
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

After last night’s cancellation, the Phillies and Mets will play two today, something that the Mets will do a lot this season, as this was already New York’s fifth April postponement.

With two games on tap between these National League East rivals, let’s jump into our Phillies vs. Mets picks and predictions for Tuesday’s double-header.

The Phillies will send Chase Anderson in Game 1 of the twin billing up against Taijuan Walker. The second game will feature a more high-profile pitching matchup as Philadelphia ace Aaron Nola will face Marcus Stroman, who threw just seven pitches for the Mets on Sunday before their game with Miami was rained out.

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Phillies vs. Mets Game 1 Prediction

The Mets moved the lefty David Peterson’s start to Wednesday, perhaps because they know they will be facing Zack Wheeler and the Phillies are 3-0 against left-handed starters this season.

However, Philadelphia has begun the season hitting righties better than lefties. They have a .247 batting average against RHP, compared to just .221 against LHP.

Current Phillies have hit Walker well enough, going 11-for-43 (.256) against him, despite never homering. The first month of the season has been Walker’s worst for several seasons in a row now, making us wonder if his serviceable first start in 2021 was a bit of a mirage.

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Anderson Has Strong Numbers Against Mets

Meanwhile, Chase Anderson has had a good deal of success against current Mets hitters, who have hit just .215 (20-for-93) against him. The right-hander struck out current Mets 22 times in those 93 at-bats, which is a higher rate than he has posted against other teams throughout his career. The likely top four hitters in New York’s lineup here (Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto, and Pete Alonso) have particularly struggled against Anderson, going just 7-for-33 (.212) with 11 strikeouts.

Anderson has won his last two starts on the road against the Mets, allowing just two runs on eight hits with 11 strikeouts over 11 2/3 innings pitched. In his four career starts at the Mets, he’s allowed just 10 total runs. He also won his only career start against the Mets when his team was favored, a game in which he allowed just one run over 5 2/3 innings pitched.

Phillies vs. Mets Game 1 Betting Trends

From a trends perspective, the Phillies are 9-4 in their last 13 series openers. That sets up well against a Mets team that is just 6-13 in their last 19 series openers. Philadelphia has also won five of its last seven games with totals set between 6.5 and 8.5, while New York has won just one of its last five in this totals range.

Game 1 Pick

Look for the Mets to slide to just 2-8 in their last 10 games against right-handed starters.

Our Pick: Philadelphia -125

Phillies vs. Mets Game 2 Prediction

The Phillies will send ace Aaron Nola to the hill in the nightcap of the doubleheader. Phillies backers will be licking their chops here at the short price tag for the now-perennial NL Cy Young candidate. However, those same bettors would do well to remember that it has not always been smooth sailing for the righty against the Mets.

Dating back to the start of last year, Nola has failed to last six innings in three of his four starts against the Mets. The Phillies lost three of his previous four starts against them, in fact, with the Mets scoring 10+ runs in all three losses.

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Stroman Should Be Fired Up

We also think that Marcus Stroman comes out with a little extra fire in his belly today, turning his ire against the league and officials from Sunday’s irresponsible start into a top-shelf performance tonight.

The Mets have been red hot over his last five starts, winning all of them, with Stroman allowing just six runs over 30 innings.

He didn’t allow more than two runs in any of those outings and was able to pitch with a ton of run support, as the Mets backed him with 35 runs across the five wins. He has lasted six innings or more and allowed two runs or less in three of his four career starts against the Phillies, including a dominant six-inning, three-hit performance in which he allowed just one earned run last week.

Current Phillies have struggled against Stroman, hitting just .239 against him (33-for-138) with only three home runs.

Game 2 Pick

With the lefty Peterson slated to go tomorrow night, the Phillies could sit some right-handed starters in this one, rather than run all the same faces out there three times in a 30-hour span.

This could be especially true if the Phils take game 1 of the doubleheader. The Phillies are just 1-4 in their last five game 2s of a series and are just 7-19 in their last 26 second games of a doubleheader. Meanwhile, the Mets are a stellar 9-3 in their last 12 game 2s of a series. Look for the Phils to drop a close one here against a dialed in Stroman.

Our Pick: New York Mets (+110)

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