Phillies vs. Rockies Odds, Prediction, Picks (April 23, 2021)

phillies rockies odds picks predictions
PHOTO CREDIT: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to move back over the .500 mark on Friday night and stay atop the NL East when they open up a seven-game road trip at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies. Vince Velasquez (0-0, 9.00 ERA) will make the start in place of Matt Moore, who is out because of COVID-19 protocols. He will be opposed by Rockies starter German Marquez (1-1, 3.57 ERA).

Let’s take a look at the Phillies vs. Rockies odds for the opener of this three-game set and make a game prediction and betting pick on this April 23, 2021 contest.

Phillies vs. Rockies Odds

Here is a look at the current Phillies vs. Rockies odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
Yankees-1.5 (+125)-132O 9 (-110)
Phillies+1.5 (-148)+114U 9 (-110)
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Phillies vs. Rockies Prediction

If you are a Phillies moneyline bettor here, you are getting a slew of value boosts to keep your price enticing. First, to the public eye, you have a struggling Phillies offense coupled with Vince Velasquez making a spot start to fill the COVID-19 hole left by LHP Matt Moore.

Velasquez left a bad taste in Phillies fans’ mouths in his first appearance of the season when the Mets worked him for four runs in just 1 1/3 innings pitched without allowing a hit. Next, you have the righty German Marquez taking the hill for the Rockies, who has pitched deep and well this season. He also has good numbers against Philadelphia in four prior career starts.

Surface perception here will surely be enough to tempt many in the betting market to play on a Colorado team that has gotten quality starting pitching this season and has suddenly seen its bats come to life recently in a sweep of Houston.

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Oddsmakers have already caught on a bit to what we see as an advantageous Philly line, as an opening line around -135 in certain shops has already taken a nosedive to as low as -110, depending on where you choose to play. However, still being able to find the Phillies as a dog in many betting houses has to be considered a boon against the worst team in MLB to this point, in spite of the Rocks winning three of their last four.

Velasquez did have that rough first outing and has struggled with control in the early going, allowing eight walks in four innings of work this season. However, his results have been better in his two appearances since, not allowing any runs in 2 2/3 innings of work.

BatterHITS/ABAVGOPS
Charlie Blackmon6-for-18.333.817
Trevor Story4-for-15.2671.113

The home run ball has typically been Velasquez’s undoing in his career, so the success he’s had keeping a lineup mostly in the yard that plays half its games in Coors Field’s thin air is a huge edge for us tonight.

We mentioned Marquez’s early success this season, as he enters off a complete game seven inning win over the Mets in his last outing. He has lasted 5 2/3 or more innings in each of his last three starts, despite the Rockies losing two of those three games.

However, it is worth noting that despite his 3.57 ERA, he has walked 13 batters in 22 2/3 innings pitched thus far, combining with 19 hits allowed for a monstrous 1.41 WHIP.

Phillies have Had Success Against Marquez

This Phillies group, entering the game after a long-awaited day off, should be primed to exploit Marquez’s early propensity to allow a ton of baserunners. Current Phillies (non-pitchers) have had solid success against Marquez.

The projected first four hitters in the Phillies lineup tonight (Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto) absolutely demolish this guy, combining to go 12-for-29 (.414) off of Marquez in their careers.

BatterHITS/ABAVGOPS
Andrew McCutchen3-for-6.5001.292
Rhys Hoskins3-for-9.3331.000
Bryce Harper4-for-8.5001.181
J.T. Realmuto2-for-6.5001.000
Didi Gregorius0-for-3.000.000
Brad Miller N/AN/AN/A
Mickey MoniakN/AN/AN/A
Alec BohmN/AN/AN/A

Harper is unstoppable to begin with right now, going 10 for his last 14 (.714) with two home runs, five runs scored, four walks, and just one strikeout.

With the guys around him owning Marquez, this part of the order should be able to do significant damage tonight with the weather starting to improve in Colorado after its snowstorms the other day.

Despite an injury to Jean Segura, who was off to a hot start in April, the Phillies have reason to believe the bottom of their order can generate a few runs as well. Brad Miller (.368) and rookie Nick Maton (.417) provide two suddenly reliable bats filling in for the injured Opening Day middle infielders.

Rockies Offense Off to Lackluster Start

The Rockies have played 12 of their first 18 games here at home, a park known for massive run production and game totals regularly set in double digits. However, Colorado is still only 15th in the league in runs per game this season and has only one regular hitting over .275 in Yonathan Daza. The Rockies are just 1-3 this season after a day off, allowing 23 runs in those four games. They are also just 1-3 in the first game of series after a win this spring.

Colorado is just 12-31 in their last 43 games against right-handed starters, including just 7-15 in its last 22 against righties here at Coors Field.

Entering play off the 6-3 win over Houston on Wednesday, we want to point out that the Rockies are also just 5-12 in their last 17 games after a win and have won just five of their last 18 games after scoring five or more in their previous outing.

Interestingly, the Phillies have won five of their last six games against opponents that just scored five or more runs prior. The Phils have also won 75 percent of their last 16 games with totals set between 9-10.5, including four straight on the road.

Phillies vs. Rockies Betting Pick

Look for Philadelphia to make it five wins in its last six meetings with the Rockies tonight, grabbing a Game 1 win in a series they have to have against a weaker opponent.

Phillies vs. Rockies Pick: Philadelphia +100 

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