Phillies vs. Rockies Odds, Prediction, Picks (April 24, 2021)

The Phillies will turn to ace Aaron Nola tonight as they look to rebound from a late-game collapse in the opener at Coors Field. The Phils took the lead in the seventh inning on a two-run homer by Rhys Hoskins, but the Rockies clawed back before eventually securing a walk-off win.

Let’s take a look at the Phillies vs. Rockies odds for the second showdown of a three-game set and make a game prediction and betting pick on this April 24, 2021 contest.

Phillies vs. Rockies Odds

Here is a look at the current Phillies vs. Rockies odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team	Run Line	Moneyline	Total
Yankees	-1.5 (+125)	-132	O 9 (-110)
Phillies	+1.5 (-148)	+114	U 9 (-110)

Click here to get 100-1 odds on any MLB team to record 1+ hit in any game during the month of April at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Phillies vs. Rockies Prediction

Nope. I just can’t do it. I sat down here to explain and defend Philadelphia -1.5 or even Philadelphia -1 here. The Phillies obviously need the game with Nola on the mound. He’s fresh off a complete game, two-hit shutout of St. Louis last time out. Meanwhile, the Phillies are 4-0 when he faces the Rockies.

Bullpen Issues

Still, I just can’t do it. How can you back this team right now to win, let alone cover any kind of higher alternative run line? The team has consistently struggled to score runs this season, still in the bottom third in the league at pushing runs across.

On the road, things only get worse. They are now just 1-6 away from home this season, averaging the fourth-least road runs per game (2.86). This is not good news for a team whose bullpen is suddenly looks more like the 2020 mess and less like the much improved group from earlier this month.

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The bullpen has plummeted to the eighth-worst ERA (4.84) in baseball already, despite a hot start to the season. They have also allowed 12 home runs, tied for the sixth-most in MLB. This is surely a harbinger of doom, given the thin air at Coors Field that saw Phillies pitching allow four home runs (two by the bullpen) in last night’s 5-4 loss.

Further sealing this bullpen’s imminent fate tonight, Vince Velasquez lasted just four innings last night. That means the Phils, a team already missing Jose Alvarado (COVID-19 protocol) and Archie Bradley (injured), will be without Velasquez (yesterday’s spot start). After giving up the deciding homer last night, is Hector Neris about to hit a cold stretch? Not to mention, three pitchers — JoJo Romero, David Hale and Sam Coonrod — each threw 23+ pitches last night.

Do you really want to ask this bullpen to hold a multi-run lead tonight at Coors Field for Nola, who threw 109 pitches in his last start? I sure don’t. Couldn’t you just imagine being up by two or three runs in the bottom of the 9th inning and some tired arm blows the runline cover (or even the game)? The stress alone of having to watch that potential scenario play out might make a Phillies runline bet here not worth it on its own.

A Concerning Nola Trend

We mentioned that the Phillies have won all four of Nola’s career starts against the Rockies. However, three of those wins were by one run. The Phillies have also lost six of Nola’s last seven starts after he threw 100+ pitches in his previous start. They have won just one of his last nine starts in that role by more than a run. The final nail in the coffin for the Phils here may be the fact that the first four batters in the Rockies’ lineup last night (Ramel Tapia, Ryan McMahon, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon) have combined to go 15-for-34 (.441) with two home runs lifetime against Nola.

By contrast, Colorado’s scheduled starter tonight, Antonio Senzatela, has held current Phillies to just a 9-for-40 (.225) mark with a home run from Bryce Harper as the only RBI they have tallied against him.

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The righty has also put his team in position to cover this run line in two of his three starts against Philly in his career, despite facing off against Nola twice. He allowed one earned run or less in two of those outings against the Phillies, boasting a 3.45 ERA overall against tonight’s opponent.

The Phillies have won just one of their last eight games here at Coors Field and have lost each of the last Game 2s of a series this season.

Colorado may be one of the worst teams in MLB thus far, but they have won four of their last five games and already have four one-run losses this season. Against this run line, they are actually 11-8.

Phillies vs. Rockies Betting Pick

Philadelphia has four one-run wins already, meaning it is just 5-14 this season on a -1.5 run line. Our advice? Despite Nola getting the ball, fade the team with the struggling offense and reeling bullpen and grab the Rockies runline.

Phillies vs. Rockies Pick: Colorado +1.5 (-105)

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