Despite missing Ben Simmons and getting worked from the opening tip Thursday night, the Sixers managed to sneak back in the dying breaths and cover the spread. Can they do the same or perhaps even pull off the outright upset this afternoon in Milwaukee, or will the Bucks send the 76ers back to Philadelphia with their tail firmly between their legs with a statement blowout?

Let’s take a closer look at the top Sixers vs. Bucks game picks and make some predictions for this April 24, 2021 matchup.

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Sixers vs. Bucks Pick (April 24, 2021)

Simmons will miss once again with an illness and Joel Embiid carries a questionable tag into this Saturday afternoon affair, the final meeting between the Bucks and Sixers this season. Milwaukee has taken the first two with their win the other night, clinching the season series and climbing to just 2.5 games back of Philly in the Eastern Conference standings.

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By virtue of the Brooklyn Nets’ win last night, the Sixers have dropped to the No. 2 spot in the East. A loss here would move Milwaukee to within 1.5 games of Philly, with a game in hand and the tiebreaker, while also dropping the Sixers a full game behind the Nets, albeit with Doc Rivers’ group holding that head-to-head tiebreaker.


Let’s evaluate some potential betting options in today’s important matchup, sharing a couple predictions and picks offered at various betting houses that could make your Saturday afternoon a lucrative one.

Sixers vs. Bucks Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Bucks at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team Run Line Moneyline Total
Hawks +7 (-108) +240 O 215.5 (-112)
Sixers -7 (-113) -295 U 215.5 (-109)

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

Bets we Like with a Sixers Win

Halftime/Full Time – Philadelphia/Philadelphia (PointsBet Sportsbook +450)

Undermanned and struggling as they are, the Sixers would need a couple surprises and/or lucky breaks to steal a win here. One of those could arrive in the form of Embiid suiting up, which would give the team at least the same group they sent to the court Thursday night. Perhaps they catch two lucky breaks and Furkan Korkmaz’s gimpy ankle is good enough for him to give it a go, despite missing the other night’s loss.

The Sixers would have to hope the Bucks don’t shoot 55.6% from the field and make 20 of their 40 three-point attempts in this one, like they did the other night. While the Bucks are the league’s fourth-best field goal percentage and second-best three-point field goal percentage team, a regression from Thursday’s laserlike precision should be expected.

While Milwaukee ran its three stars (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday) out there for 34+ minutes each on Thursday, Philly was able to keep their entire roster under 30 minutes. This could pay dividends today, as guys like Tobias Harris and Seth Curry were able to get their legs under them after varying time off. Both could be ready for bigger minutes here with some of the rust shaken off for Harris, who has proven key to the 76ers’ success this season.

Philadelphia has repeatedly shown a couple things lately. Despite losses to two of the league’s top teams their last two times on the court, the Sixers have shot the ball extremely well from everywhere on the court. Already one of the NBA’s 10 best field goal percentage offenses (47.6%), Philly made over half its shots in both of those recent losses, shooting a combined 87-for-171 from the field (50.9%) with a diminished roster.

They also combined to go 25-for-52 (48.1%) from deep in those two contests, significantly above their 14th-ranked 37.1% average on the season from long range. Another effort like this with the normal expected regression by the Bucks would likely mean a bell-to-bell victory for the Sixers, cashing this prop bet.

The Sixers have shown a propensity to jump out to quick starts in their recent wins and would likely have to again today to steal a victory, as the Bucks should have gotten their wake up call when they almost blew their huge lead the other night and had to drag their starters back onto the court with just a few minutes left to secure the victory.

Philly has led at the half in all seven of its April victories and have not trailed at the half in a win in 11 straight. Conversely, Milwaukee has failed to lead at the half in eight straight home losses, only winning at halftime once this season in their 10 losses at the Fiserv Forum.

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Bets We Like with a Bucks Win

Brook Lopez 10+ Points AND Milwaukee to Win (FanDuel Sportsbook +116)

Lopez is understandably overshadowed on this Bucks team, but he has quietly averaged 11.7 points per game this season to follow up his 12.0 and 12.5 ppg averages from the last two seasons in Milwaukee. This is his 13th season in the NBA and he has averaged double digit points in every single one of them, topping 20 ppg four times.

Lopez is a tremendous foul shooter for a big man, averaging 79.5% from the stripe in his career and having his best season yet in 2020-21 (85.4%). He also takes 4.4 three-pointers per game and has averaged at least that many attempts per game for five straight seasons.

He makes 1.6 from deep per game this season, as well, and with Embiid’s status in question, he should find a few clean looks from beyond the arc today.

The Bucks’ seven-footer made four three-pointers the other night against these Sixers, tallying 16 points in just 23 minutes of play. In his two games against Philly this season, he has averaged 15 points (reaching double digits in both), shot 52.4% from the field and 53.8% from deep. He could be poised for bigger minutes today given that he topped 29 minutes in each of the Bucks’ three games before Thursday.

The most important statline here, though, is that Lopez has reached double-digit points in eight straight home wins for the Bucks.

If the Bucks win here, with the matchup edge he would likely possess and the extra minutes we are likely to see from him, reaching double digits should be a more than reasonable expectation for the Stanford product.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Any Team Winning Margin 6-10 Points (FOXBET +205)

While we expect Milwaukee to have learned a lesson about finishing after nearly coughing up a game-long huge lead the other night, oddsmakers still see fit to line this game firmly in this 6-10 point band. It’s also very difficult to win any game in the NBA by double digits, especially against a good team that can shoot the ball effectively from deep.

In fact, the Bucks don’t have any double digit wins in nine attempts against a team currently in one of the top three spots in either league. Philly has eight single-digit margins of victory in their 11 games against top three seeds from either conference, with five of those results landing in the 6-10 band.

In fact, two of the three double-digit results finished with 11 and 13 point margins of victory, leaving each a single basket from landing in this band.

So far this season, 35 of the 76ers’ 59 (59.3%) games have finished with winning margins either in this 6-10 band or within one shot of landing inside the band.

For Milwaukee, 27 of its last 54 games have done the same. With this game bearing immense importance for the fate of each team’s season, and with the familiarity gained by playing the other night, we like this one to land in this enticing bracket of close, but not too close.

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Sixers vs. Bucks Prediction

Milwaukee has played six back-to-backs against the same team this season. In all six of those instances, the second game was decided by double-digit points. Philly has played five such back-to-backs with each of those games decided by seven or more points, four by double digits.

Milwaukee is at home where they have covered six of the last seven against the Sixers. If the Bucks get a sizable lead again today, we can expect them to keep their collective foot on the gas for 48 minutes this time and not risk the late scare they endured Thursday night.

Philadelphia has failed to cover any of its last five games on the final line and are finding it difficult to be consistent defensively with the ever-changing group of key players missing time.

With the Sixers best defender out again today, Harris surely not back to 100 percent just yet, and question marks surrounding Embiid for this one, we have to give the edge to Milwaukee, who knows it essentially moves just a game back of Philly for the No. 2 spot in the East with another win.

ATS Pick

With just six ATS wins in their last 26 games as road dogs, look for the Sixers to fade late in this one as they hope to regroup at home against lesser opponents next week. Expect Milwaukee to move to 4-0 ATS in day games this season with another dominant home win.

Our Pick: Milwaukee -7.5

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