Sixers vs. Clippers Betting Prediction (April 16, 2021)

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Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

It’s one high-stakes game after another for the Sixers right now, as they follow up their win over the Nets on Wednesday night with one of the Western Conference’s top teams in the Los Angeles Clippers.  This will be the second and final regular season meeting between the two teams, with Los Angeles taking the first matchup by a 122-112 score out west in late March.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Clippers betting preview, including odds, predictions and picks.

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Sixers vs. Clippers Betting Prediction (April 16, 2021)

This should be a big game in the mind of Sixers head coach Doc Rivers. In his first game against his old team, he took a loss  without his star big man, so he will be looking to even the score tonight.

Embiid should be in the lineup tonight, so this contest should have a different look and feel.

The Clippers, at 39-18 SU and 33-23-1 ATS, have a similar record to a Sixers team with 38-17 SU and 30-23-2 ATS records.

The Clippers, a 17-10 SU road team, enter play on a seven-game winning streak, while Philly, a 21-5 SU home team, is riding a three-game win streak of its own.

Click here to get 100-1 odds on the Sixers to make 1+ three-pointer at DraftKings Sportsbook.

As has been the case across the NBA this season, their is some uncertainty as to which players will suit up. Sixers backup center Dwight Howard (knee) sat out of the Brooklyn game and remains questionable along with former Clipper Tobias Harris (knee).

For the Clippers, concerns still remain regarding the immediate health of star Kawhi Leonard, who missed the team’s last three games with soreness in his right foot. Leonard was upgraded to questionable for this contest, leaving fellow injured starters Patrick Beverly and Serge Ibaka as the only key Clippers definitely out of the lineup. Head coach Ty Lue preached a cautious approach to Leonard’s return, so, even if he does play, one has to wonder how many minutes he will get.

Sixers vs. Clippers Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Clippers at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Spread: Sixers -3, Clippers +3
Moneyline: Sixers -143, Clippers +123
Total: Over/Under 220.5 points

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Philadelphia 76ers Win By 6-10 (+450)

If you like the Sixers to win tonight, this win margin window looks most appealing.

Philly does not win many nail biters. Their last win by less than six points was an overtime victory against the Knicks 13 games (9 wins) ago. In fact, only seven of their 38 wins this season (18.4%) have come by less than six points.

Not a single one of those seven victories came at home as a favorite of six points or less. The Sixers have, however, win 14 games by 6-10 points this season, including their last game against the Nets, another quality opponent that they were small favorites against (at open) at home.

For the Clippers, it’s unlikely they will get blown out, as they rarely ever do. Of their 18 losses this season, only five have come by more than 10 points. Five losses have fallen in our desired range of 6-10 points.

In their only two losses as dogs of six or less this season, the Clippers lost the two games by five and six points, respectively, putting us right around where we hope to be tonight.

Bets We Like With a Clippers Win

Los Angeles Clippers to Win by 4+ (PointsBet +210)

The Sixers don’t lose often, sporting the league’s third least amount losses (17), but when they do lose, it’s typically by a substantial number. Only two of their 17 losses have come by three points less this season.

In fact, the last time the Sixers lost by five or less in regulation was way back on Feb. 11 when theyfell 118-114 at Portland as 5.5 point favorites. That game marked the only time this season that the Sixers have lost by five or less as single digit favorites and that game still would have resulted in a winner for us here.

The Clippers already beat the Sixers once this season by significantly more than this number. Only two of the Clippers’ 39 wins this season have come by three or less points, too. One of those two wins came in the Clippers’ last game, a two-point win the other night at Detroit.

The only other time Los Angeles won a game by three or less this season, they came back to win their next game and did so by more than this number. In fact, the last two times the Clippers won following a narrow victory of five or less this season, the subsequent wins came by 26 and 38 points, which would make for easy winners on this prop bet.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Race to 5 Points – Clippers (BetMGM -110)

The Clippers are the league’s fourth-best field goal percentage offense at 48.5%. They also happen to be the league’s best team in terms of three-point field goal percentage (41.8%) and free throw percentage (84.1%).

Free throws and three-pointers are the things you want in your back pocket in a Race to five. And-1s or early triples turn a potential three-score prop into a two-score prop, which is usually the difference-maker for a win or loss in a quick-hitter prop.

It also doesn’t hurt that the Clippers boast one of the league’s 10 best three-point field goal percentage defenses (35.8%) and play a Sixers team which is just 22nd best in the NBA from the free throw stripe (76.6%). In Leonard doesn’t play, the Clippers are more likely to rely upon the deep ball anyway, increasing our chances of that early helpful three to get us to five points first.

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Sixers vs. Clippers Prediction

The two most important and dominant players capable of swinging the result of this game are Joel Embiid and Kawhi Leonard.

We know Embiid (barring something unforeseen) will be out there tonight playing against a foul prone Ivica Zubac and his backup, DeMarcus Cousins, who has played less than 29 combined minutes in six games since joining the Clippers.

We still don’t know for sure if Leonard is going to play, but if he does not, you have to imagine this line is going to spike up a bit. Missing Harris would be a tough loss for the Sixers, but his impact has nowhere near the effect that Leonard’s does.

We have to treat it like they will both miss or neither will miss. Either way, the edge has to go to the Sixers.

Philadelphia will be playing with revenge here and Rivers will want this one against his former team after already dropping one earlier this season.

Thankfully, the Sixers have been so good at home, losing just five games at the Wells Fargo Center all season. Even more importantly, they have not lost at home to a top-four seed from either conference all season with Embiid in the lineup. Furthermore, they have not lost at home this season to a team currently in playoff position when both Embiid and Ben Simmons were in the lineup.

This team gets up for big games and has the size to match up with the long bodies the Clippers. Simmons has the ability to take Paul George away, which, if Leonard does not go, leaves a bunch of role players trying to make enough threes to win.

Unfortunately for Clippers’ backers, the Sixers boast the seventh-best three-point field goal percentage defense (35.7%) and the fifth-best overall field goal percentage defense (45.3%) in the NBA.

We are basically just asking the Sixers to win the game, given that they don’t tend to win by close margins. However, it is comforting to know that Philly had covered nine straight against the Clippers before their meeting earlier this season. In fact, the Sixers have covered five straight against the Clippers in Philadelphia, including four straight outright wins.

They were favored in each of the last three meetings at home and won each of the last four played in Philly  against the Clips by at least seven points. In fact, no game between these two in their last 10 head-to-heads was decided by less than four points.

Sixers vs. Clippers Pick

The Sixers did not lose any of their games against the spread this season when favored by 2.5 or less and are 11-3-1 ATS on the season as favorites of less than five points.

Philly is also 8-3 ATS at home against winning teams, while the Clippers are just 5-6 ATS on the road against above .500 foes.

The 76ers also remain a dominant team on 1 day of rest, as well, with 26-10 SU and 22-14 ATS marks to their name and are 16-7 both SU and ATS on the same amount of rest.

Look for Philly to move to 40-14 ATS in their last 54 home games against a team with a road win percentage greater than .600, while the Clippers slide to just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a home win percentage above .500.

Pick: Sixers -3

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