The Sixers will look to retain their slim lead for the top stop in the Eastern Conference when they host a red-hot Steph Curry and the Warriors tonight at the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers are winners of four straight, while the Warriors had their recent four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday night despite the efforts of Curry, who dropped 47 points in a loss.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Warriors betting preview, including odds, predictions and picks.

Sixers vs. Warriors Betting Prediction (April 19, 2021)

Tonight, the Sixers play yet another potential playoff team with injury questions surrounding its star(s). Philly is working through a murky injury picture of its own, albeit regarding slightly less critical pieces.

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While Kelly Oubre, James Wiseman, and (of course) Klay Thompson will miss for Golden State, star guard Steph Curry’s status for tonight’s game remains unclear at this juncture, due to an ankle issue.

Curry has been uncontainable of late, carrying the Warriors on his back to five wins in their last seven games, so his status rightfully has an immense impact on where this game’s spread, total, and moneyline will eventually end up.

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Curry has scored 323 points in eight games since returning to full from his tailbone injury, good for an average of 40.4 points per game in that stretch. His insane run has also seen him score 30+ points in 10 straight, making him the first to do so after turning 33 years old since the late, great Kobe Bryant nearly a decade ago.

Philadelphia can at least be confident that Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons will be in the lineup. That proved enough against the Clippers, as the two combined for 48 points and 23 rebounds. The statuses of Tobias Harris, Dwight Howard, and Seth Curry, all who missed the LAC game, do remain in question, however, potentially weakening the Sixers’ starting lineup and depth.

If that group is forced to miss again, can Embiid and Simmons, two guys catching traction as legitimate MVP and DPOY candidates, respectively, carry their team on their backs again and earn the victory and/or cover?

Let’s now discuss some enticing betting options within the framework of this potentially injury-riddled game with a couple of predictions and picks offered at various betting houses.

Sixers vs. Warriors Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Warriors at DraftKings Sportsbook (as of 11:00 a.m. Monday morning):

Team Run Line Moneyline Total
Hawks +7 (-108) +240 O 215.5 (-112)
Sixers -7 (-113) -295 U 215.5 (-109)

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

4th Quarter Money Line – Philadelphia 76ers (FOXBet -162)

If the 76ers are going to win this one, then we can assume one of a couple paths to the end game.

To begin, the Sixers should have learned some lessons during their last two games in which they saw 17 and 22 point leads evaporate in the fourth quarter. They were able to hang on for wins both times, but I have to imagine these late letdowns were discussed at length by Doc Rivers and should be addressed by the team tonight.

Meanwhile, If Steph Curry does happen to play while the Warriors find themselves out of the game come the fourth quarter, I don’t see the point in running him out there with a gimpy ankle in a game they cannot win. The result would be a very marginal lineup to eat up the fourth quarter garbage time minutes and I prefer the Sixers’ depth to the Warriors’ in that scenario, especially with Philly looking to sure-up their end of games and honing their bench for the upcoming postseason.

Finally, the Sixers have had their troubles closing games out with big leads. However, the Warriors have been horrific at the end of games which they lose. In their last nine losses as underdogs, Golden State also lost eight of those fourth quarters, tying the other.

Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 AND Under 225.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook +200)

We discussed above why we believe the Sixers are likely to cover this spread if they win tonight, citing the need to sure-up their finishes down the stretch. What we will now weigh in on is why we think that this game is likely to stay Under 225.5 points with a Philly win.

This game now has a posted total of 224.5 in some shops, including at FanDuel. In the Sixers’ last six wins as favorites in games with totals set under 225, all have played under the total (and, thus, obviously, under 225.5 points).

Looking deeper, we find that in the 76ers’ last 15 wins, they have allowed an average of just 100.3 points per game.

Something similar here against a (possibly greatly) depleted Warriors’ team will almost surely keep this one Under 225.5. After Embiid’s public endorsement for Simmons as DPOY, you would have to believe he will want to play at an elite level defensively in this one, with his teammates, the NBA’s seventh-best scoring defense and fourth-best field goal percentage defense, in tow.

For Golden State, in nine losses to the current top three teams in each conference, it has averaged just 101.1 points per game. In their two games this season (both losses) as 9+ point underdogs, they have managed just 98 and 99 points. They are likely to struggle to score in this one, as well. Helping us, though, is their recent run of good defense.

The Warriors have allowed 110 points or less in five of their last six games.

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Bets We Like With a Warriors Win

Golden State Warriors Total Points (Including OT) – Over 107.5 (FOXBet -110)

This one is pretty simple.

Do you know how many games the Warriors have won this season while scoring less than 108 points?

The answer is one.

Do you know how many games the Warriors have won this season while scoring less than 108 points since Jan. 10?

The answer is zero.

That’s right, other than a 106-105 home win over the Raptors in early January, when Golden State wins, it is doing so while scoring more than this number.

When the Warriors have won outright as underdogs this season, their scoring has been even more dramatically high.

In 11 outright wins as dogs, Golden State has averaged 123 points per game, a full 10 points above their season average of 113.0.

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Sixers vs. Warriors Prediction

There are injuries on both sides, meaning some key guys could miss this game, while others could get an early rest if the game becomes a rout either way.

Ben Simmons will look to bolster his case for DPOY, while leading one of the league’s best defenses, which has allowed just 103.2 ppg over its last 10 games.

Offensively, Joel Embiid should once again be the focal point. Simmons touted Embiid as a natural choice for the league’s MVP. Surely, he will want to reward that compliment with another dominant performance against a weakened Warriors frontcourt.

Playing the ball through the Sixers’ big man most trips, however, takes time, as he has been getting doubled on the block more often than not these days. These deep trips into the shot clock help shrink the game for an under play.

Some trends to know:

  • The Warriors have played 12 of their last 17 away games under the posted number, including five of their last seven on the road against teams with above .500 home records.
  • Golden State has played under in five of their last seven games against teams with above .600 overall records.
  • The Sixers, who won the game but missed the cover on the final line against the Clippers, have played seven straight under the total after an ATS loss and five of their last six under after a win.
  • Philly has also played six of their last seven overall under the posted total, including five of their last six as favorites.

Sixers vs. Warriors Pick

Head-to-head, these two teams heavily gravitate towards unders games. They have played five of the last seven meetings in Philadelphia under as part of 13 of their last 19 overall head-to-head under. There’s no reason to think tonight will be any different.

Pick: UNDER 224.5

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