The 3 Best Phillies vs. Braves Player Props Picks (April 10, 2021)

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Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Braves cruised to an 8-1 victory in the first game game of this series, as Charlie Morton stymied the Phillies’ bats. Meanwhile, the Braves were able to get to Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia bullpen as some Phillies defensive miscues helped Atlanta break things open.

Let’s take a closer look at the second game of a three-game set between these National League East rivals with our three best Phillies vs. Braves player prop picks.

Phillies at Braves Player Props (April 10, 2021)

Tonight, the Phillies will try to even the series and beat the Braves for the fourth time in five tries this season when they send Zach Eflin to the hill against Braves Ian Anderson. This one is a rematch of the final game of last weekend’s series finale at Citizens Bank Park.

Without further ado, let’s dissect a few Phillies vs. Braves player prop picks and see if we can cash in tonight.

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Ian Anderson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)

Anderson made such a strong impression in Atlanta’s shortened season last summer by boasting a 1.95 ERA in six regular season starts and spectacular a 0.96 ERA in four postseason starts.

In those 10 outings, he struck out 65 batters in just 51 innings pitched and then tallied another seven in his first start this season over just 5 innings against this Phillies lineup.

Speaking of the Phils, they have struck out double digit times in five of their first seven games thus far this season, averaging over 10 strikeouts per game. Anderson will likely get a slightly diminished version of Philadelphia’s lineup, as well, with Andrew Knapp typically catching for Eflin. Of course, Knapp did homer off of Anderson last week, so that’s worth noting.

Either way, Anderson should take full advantage of a team that is struggling to put the bat on the ball.

In eight career MLB starts in which he has lasted more than four innings, Anderson has struck out at least six batters. Current Phillies have struck out 10 times in 22 at-bats against the righty. If you expect Anderson to last five innings, then you can reasonably expect to win this wager. There’s little to contradict the belief that Anderson will last at least that long, as six of the seven starters against the Phils this season have lasted at least five innings.

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Ronald Acuna, Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Acuna has caught fire in recent days and we know enough about him to know this isn’t a mirage.

After a 4-for-5 night with a homer in the series opener, he’s now hitting .393 on the season with three home runs and six RBIs, despite hitting out of the lead off spot.

He doesn’t have great numbers in his career off of Eflin, with just four hits in 15 at-bats, although one of those hits was a home run. Still, we saw the Braves adjust to Wheeler yesterday after he dominated them last week. It stands to reason they will do the same against Eflin, and, when Eflin struggles, he typically does so by giving up the long ball.

In 2019, he allowed 28 homers, which placed him among the Top 25 (or bottom?) in the league. Acuña hit 41 out of the yard himself that season and followed it up with 14 more in just 46 games in 2020, a pace that projected out to nearly 50 home runs over a 162-game season. Finally, 13 of those 14 homers last season came against right-handed pitchers, as did 31 of his 41 in 2019.

Ride the hot bat here at the top of the lineup where he’ll get maximum at-bats for the Braves.

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Bryce Harper to Score a Run (-115)

The Phils bounced back from their only other loss this season to score eight runs in the final game of the Mets series.

Harper has only hit .238 to start the season with no home runs, which will help our value here, but he quietly leads the team in on-base percentage at .467.

With J.T. Realmuto likely to get the night off in this one, Harper won’t have the same protection behind him in the lineup, meaning he may get pitched around a little more than he’s used to when the BCIB is in the lineup. Down will go his chances to inflict major damage with his bat, but up go his chances of getting on base multiple times and having opportunities to score.

Harper has eight walks, one hit by pitch, and five hits to his name through seven games, meaning he is on base an average of twice per game. You have to like your odds of him touching home at least once then, if the Phils are going to be competitive in this one.

And you can’t rule out the possibility of Harper going yard here. After 13 homers in the shortened 2020 season, along with a total of of 69 homers the two years prior, you know he’s going to break through on that front soon enough.

Doing so against a power righty like Anderson is certainly feasible and would get us our winner on this prop straight away.

Harper hit nine of his 13 home runs last season off of righties and eight of those 13 on the road. Harper is more or less a 100 runs scored guy, was on a superior pace to that last season, and has four runs scored in seven games this season.

Expect him to cross the plate tonight and cash this prop.

 

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