The Best Phillies vs. Braves Sunday Night Baseball Player Prop Picks (April 11, 2021)

phillies braves player prop picks
Photo credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

After a brutal late-inning loss to the Braves last night, the Phillies will look to avoid a series sweep by the Braves when the two teams go at it on the nationally televised Sunday Night Baseball stage.

Let’s take a closer look at the series finale between the Phillies and Braves with three top player prop picks and predictions for this April 11, 2021 matchup.

Phillies at Braves Player Props (April 11, 2021)

Two lefties will do battle as Matt Moore and Drew Smyly go at it tonight.

The Phils will look for more from Moore in his second outing of the season to help avoid a sweep. In his first outing, the lefty lasted just 3.1 IP on 74 pitches against the Mets his first time.

Smyly gave up four runs over six innings pitched in his first start of the season, but only two were earned, in a 6-5 loss to Washington.

Despite it being an early-season matchup, this is a fairly big game. A win for the Braves would level these two NL East rivals in the standings, while a Phillies victory would ensure they head to New York with no less than a 1.5 game division lead.

With eyes across the country on this one. there should be some significant betting action. With that in mind, let’s discuss three player prop bet picks and predictions worth a poke tonight.

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Drew Smyly Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Sure, the Phillies have been strikeout fodder for most every pitcher they have faced this season, going down on strikes at least eight times in every game this season. However, this is also still primarily the same lineup that struck out the fourth-least per game through the entirety of the 2020 season.

So, what gives?

Well, for starters, the starting pitching the Phils have faced out of the gate this season has been mostly righties and guys that can sit you down — Jason DeGrom, Max Fried, Ian Anderson twice, Charlie Morton twice, Marcus Stroman.

That’s rough.

Well, today, Philadelphia’s lineup, which is righty-heavy in key spots, gets to face a left-hander not known for his ability to miss bats. Current Phillies have struck out just three times in 23 career at-bats against Drew Smyly.

He has fared well striking batters out over his last ten starts, topping five strikeouts seven times in that span, but he also hasn’t reached 100 pitches in any of his last nine outings.

This early in the season with a rested bullpen and a chance at a division sweep, we are likely to see him on a short leash tonight. In a game both teams will want badly, with the weakest starting pitching in the series and a rested Braves pen (minus Tyler Matzek), I expect both lineups to be dialed in and the starters to get potentially quick hooks.

Smyly should stay under the number tonight in the national spotlight.

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J.T. Realmuto to Record RBI (+150)

The Phillies top catcher comes into this primetime matchup relatively fresh after not starting last night’s game. Philly’s clean-up hitter should get a few shots to drive in some runs tonight with the guys in front of him in the lineup all likely to spend time on the bases. Andrew McCutchen is 3-for-4 off of Smyly, Hoskins is hitting for average (.313), and Harper boasts a tremendous on-base percentage (.471) in the early going.

Realmuto is 3-for-6 with two RBIs through Friday night’s game against left-handed pitching this season, piggybacking a .386 batting average against lefties in 2020.  In the two games this season against opponents sending lefty hurlers to the hill, Realmuto has piled up four RBIs.

Also of note, he knocked in a run following his other game this season after getting rested for Knapp and has had at least one hit in each of the six games he has started this season, including three multi-hit games. With the guys above him well-positioned to reach base, this is a great spot for a Realmuto RBI.

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Andre McCutchen to Score a Run (-115)

McCutchen has started slowly this season, hitting just .208, but he still has a stellar .378 on-base percentage.
Before crossing the plate twice last night, he had scored just one run this season and that was on Opening Day.
We expect the momentum to continue tonight, as he seems to have Smyly’s number in their limited meetings.
McCutchen is 3-for-4 with two homers in his brief history with the Braves’ starter and we could see Smyly work around him tonight to avoid giving up the big hit again.
Despite McCutchen’s slow start, he has proven throughout his career that if he is healthy and playing everyday, he is a guy who is going to score better than a run every two games played and it’s only a matter of time, with the guys he has hitting behind him, before he trends toward that ratio again this season.
McCutchen had scored 77 runs in just 116 games in a Phillies’ uniform coming into this season, a pace that projects out to 107 runs for a full 162-game season.
Facing a lefty should help him score tonight. He is a lifetime .309 hitter against left-handed pitching, compared to just a .277 against righties. His walk percentage (13.1%) and weighted on-base average (.403) against lefties are both significantly better than his career numbers in those categories against righties (11.8% and .358, respectively).

Facing a guy he clearly sees very well and with talented/motivated bats behind him, expect McCutchen to get driven in at least once.

 

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